War in Ukraine

This a very accurate statement in that WaPost piece:

Ukrainians have so far valiantly resisted Mr. Putin’s attempts to absorb the country into his reimagined Russian empire. They have done so while often been forced to fight with severe limits because of the indecision and vacillation from the Biden administration over which advanced weapons systems to send Ukraine, as well as how quickly and how they could be used. Ukraine eventually received advanced fighter jets, modern Western tanks and long-range missiles. But much of the weaponry came after months of needless delay, giving Russia time to consolidate its battlefield gains.

However, with the lifting of restricting long range fires into mainland Russia in October, we are now at the point that the Russians can no longer count of a safe logistical supply lines in Russia. Those logistical pipes are going to shrink and that is going to make it much, much harder for the Russians to supply their army in Ukraine.

 

This is refreshing to know. If Zelenskyy and Ukraine can hold out until the year 2100, Ukraine will be able to win this thing.

 

To be clear, Sudhza is a much smaller heist than any of those cities you listed and Russia is 2 km outside the city center. Russia also have additional motivation to prioritize a swift counter with Trump's inauguration looming. That is not to say it's a foregone conclusion. You are correct about that. But it shares little similarity to any of the operations towards the cities you mentioned above. One also has to consider how long Ukraine will hold on with their pocket in Kursk collapsing, for a myriad of reasons. That plays into it as well. I don't think they can afford to have a significant number of troops encircled, so they will likely retreat most of their forces to Sudhza and put up a fight there that will last a few weeks (give or take). But it could go faster than that given the circumstances and what's at stake for Russia.

 

I know this is a joke but Putin is ridding his country of the young. They have either fled or been killed in the war. For Putin it means that the people who would rise up against him are gone. If you don’t care about anything but yourself it isn’t the worst thing that could happen

 

There is an imaginary war. Then there’s the real war.

 

My point remains that until Russia does it, Russia hasn’t done it. We’ve spent this entire war quaking about Russian potential energy, little of which has translated into meaningful victories in the field. Once Russia captures said bag of prisoners, then it’s worth discussing.

 

All true, if your only goal is to stay in power for what is left in your life, and whatever sustainable vision you have for your country after you’re gone doesn’t mean anything. Sure, generally speaking, it’s true that the young are the ones most likely to revolt. But it’s also true, generally speaking, that the young have the babies who would sustain the next generation.

 

I agree but my point was Putin may not care what happens after he dies.

 

Well, again, I don't think Ukraine will put themselves in a position to have a large number of their troops encircled in Kursk, so that probably will not happen. They simply can't afford that sort of loss. I would say Russia have made meaningful advances in their counters in Kursk. Ukraine also runs the risk of being pushed out of Kursk post-inauguration and such an event being used as a watershed moment of sorts by the politicians to say "the tide of the war has turned and we need to make a deal." Even if being pushed out of Kursk isn't a big deal in of itself, I could see Trump and others using that as a signal to Ukraine "okay we need to cut our losses and make a deal."

 

Then that’s one hell of a message to get to his people. Most people want from their government not only the best possible quality of life right now but also a better life in the future for their descendants, even if those concepts can often be at cross purposes and reasonable people can disagree on how to go about either. But it’s a rare person who genuinely desires their leadership to completely burn down the future for the right now. The most die-hard Nazis, for instance, were horrified to learn about Hitler’s “scorched earth” order that would have hurt the Allied occupation but would have also set back Germany’s ability to rebuild for generations, and they passively resisted carrying out that order. Regardless, if Putin plans to sacrifice the flower of his population on this war, who are we argue with his greatness? I say, let’s keep helping him sacrifice it.

 

Call me crazy, but I’m beginning to think he may not actually hit his goals as he promised …

 

Seeing some reporting on about how it might take 6 months from the transition team.

For a peace settlement, Putin is either going to have to be willing to cede territory back to Ukraine or allow Ukraine NATO membership or NATO forces along a DMZ in eastern Ukraine. Neither is something Putin wants to agree to, so the question is what are Putin's pain points that can be hit hard enough for him to agree to one or the other.

 

It’s really an impossible task to predict. Either Trump truly has some inside guidance on how to hit the vulnerability of each leader in order to press a compromise, or he is in fact aligned with Putin and is going to cut off all funding to Ukraine, or he is just full of er, … poop. It’s one of those,not all of those.

I don’t believe for a second Putin factually viewed Ukraine as a security thread, regardless of the rhetoric. He wanted,and wants, to expand his and empire and Ukraine is the natural starting point. It has minerals, food, and a population.

Ukraine doesn’t want to be absorbed into that empire and has exhausted horrific expense in terms of blood and infrastructure to hold its independence and protect itself from incursion.

Where is there a deal to be had? And what makes Trump the only person on earth that has the capacity to understand the pressure points?

 

This is a really bad take, for a myriad of reasons. Most likely just an uninformed take on your part. It's impossible to ignore Putin and Russia's long-standing objections to Ukraine joining NATO. It is not as if he spoke of this "security threat" after the invasion had already commenced or shortly before. Whether justified or not, he clearly believes it to be a security threat. Considering the geography, history and players involved, an intellectually honest individual can't rule out a real perceived security threat by Putin and the Russians. He hasn't exactly been silent about it for the past 25 years. You don't have to agree with it, but to deny its authenticity from his standpoint is disingenuous. Your opinion isn't going to shape the outcome of this.

 

While I do not agree with Putin's actions, if you look back at the history of Russia, they have always wanted a buffer zone between their borders and European powers, so Russia advanced to the west to gain that buffer zone. They only problem with that is that the buffer zone became part of Russia and then Russia needed a new buffer zone further to the west. I'm sure we would see Putin do the same thing in the Baltic if he was able to win in Ukraine in '22.

This is not about Trump being able to understand Putin's pain points. It is about the state of the conflict as he inherits it in '25. I'm sure the attacks into Russia proper are inflicting a cost on Putin right now. If Trump promises to/does give Ukraine more ATACMS, Tomahawks, and other long range fires capabilities, would Putin cry uncle at some point? BTW, Biden could have likely done this about this time last year when his Admin approved the ATACMS.

 

Do they actually view Ukraine as a security threat or is it that Ukraine joining NATO means it’s completely off the table for Russia to acquire Ukrainian territory? Early on they may have had legitimate security concerns from their point of view, but I don’t think it’s an objectively reasonable belief today.

 

Anyone paying attention would know it’s American, er, Ukrainian pinpricks vs. Russian hammer blows.

 

Not only is the position wrong,Ukraine and NATO effectively stated that they would agree that Ukraine would not join NATO. Russin invaded anyway because, as it inanely told the world, it needed to rid the Nazis on its border.

 

On Russian troop loses: