War in Ukraine

What's sickening is how long it took the HoR to approve the $100 billion in disaster relief. The Pubs are utterly incapable of competently governing.

Trump would use that $2.5 billion to give billionaires a tax credit for replacing their private jets.

 

they will also want access to western markets. their cahs for investments in infrastructure in Ukraine of which they will have some minor equity interests (power, ports, airports) and they get access to international banking markets

 

That is part of it, of course. Another part will be, “Look how unreasonable these Russians are. I offer them a face-saving peace, and this is how they act.”

 

The face-saving will be on the part of West and not Russia. Prediction: either Trump will accede to Putin’s demands or the war will be fought to its conclusion.

Conclusion: the Ukrainian war machine collapses and the Ukrainian regime despairs of further resistance and agrees to Russia’s demands.

Saving face: the war will be spun, in the West, as a plucky underdog, Ukraine, thwarting mighty Russia’s imperial designs of rolling through Europe and re-establishing the bounds of the former Soviet Union.

 

Reading your last few posts (and previous ones), I think you are underestimating the populist/anti-war wing of Trump's base. They are louder and have a more coherent message than do the pro-war zealots in either party and they were crucial to Trump's election to a 2nd term. And of course, it doesn't hurt that Trump made it clear dozens of time his own thinking aligns succinctly with that wing of his base. I mean, he chose Vance as his veep. In the end, the Trump administration will be more than willing to make what you would call concessions to Russia in order to strike a meaningful peace deal.

I really think you could stop wasting your time thinking Trump will have some sort of epiphany and drag this war out further. He will not and that is the right decision. He will not continue throwing good American taxpayer money after bad. And by bad, I mean billions in military aid to Ukraine without any gains to show for it. He will, in effect, divorce America from this quagmire in Ukraine and wash our hands clean of it.

 

So you understand Russia’s position, right? Russia keeps all of its stolen land. Ukraine must cede more land that Russia was never able to take. Ukraine receives no security guarantees for the future. And Ukraine must be disarmed and unable to defend itself against future Russian incursions.

If President Trump concedes to that (assuming that Ukraine and the rest of the allies would, which is pure fantasy, but let’s go with it), would you call that a well-struck bargain? Should we all hail the President’s art of the deal if that’s the end result?

 

I’ll answer for him. No. Not a good deal and we just kick the can down the road.

 

You’re correct. That would not be a good deal. Only a complete goober would agree to that deal, particularly given how poorly things are going for Russia. I have a 13-year-old daughter who could negotiate a better end state to that war than what I described.

That being said, I don’t know what Trump’s walking-away position is from any negotiations (which are not even an established fact) with Russia, but I do think it’s north of what Russia professes is the minimum it will accept. Given that Ukraine is in the stronger position for dragging the war out for another year, it probably comes down to how much of Russia’s conquests it is willing to back away from. If there is a negotiated peace in 2025 (and I don’t think there will be), then I don’t see any chance whatsoever of Ukraine restoring its 2014 or even its 2022 borders. Russia is going to keep some of what it has stolen in the last 10 years and will probably get a break on sanctions. And if that’s the best we can do right now, then I think it’s probably in Ukraine’s best interest to keep the fight going.

 

I think I've been clear on what my predicted outcome will be, which looks nothing like what you are saying in this post.

 

What is Ukraine going to gain by fighting for another year, considering they haven't gained anything noteworthy in the past two years? Even their temporary foothold in Kursk is falling apart.

 

Until you can get past measuring this war exclusively in ground gained, there’s no point explaining that to you again. From March to July 1918, Imperial Germany gained a far more impressive amount of ground than Russia has in the last year. But the rot was already deep within. The first troop mutinies started in August, and the economic/political collapse was complete by November. It happened that fast. So if you think Russia has another year in them and are on their way to inexorable victory, then they shouldn’t waste their time with negotiations either. Let’s fight it out.

Yeah, but you’ve been saying that since — what? August? — and yet here we are. Russia and North Korea have thrown reckless numbers against prepared Ukrainian positions without causing even close to requisite casualties, gaining none of the encirclements they’ve been trying for, and deadline after deadline has come and gone without pushing Ukraine out. And every attack Russia/North Korea makes, Ukraine seems to withdraw in good order to the next set of prepared positions, ready to keep chewing up the next Russian wave. But, yeah, if you think Russia can keep affording “victories” such as these indefinitely, then zero point in trying to negotiate an end. All-powerful Russia should just impose its will.

 

If the Russians won't negotiate, keep dropping huuuge weapons caches in Ukraine until they do.

 

We will soon see with one of you are the most correct.

stay tooned

 

Of course the problem with funneling endless weapons to Ukraine is that there aren’t endless Ukrainians to man them.

Evidence: after upwards of ten conscriptions, the average Ukrainian fighter is 46 to 47 years old and the conscription age will now be lowered to 18.

 

Yes, propaganda IS sickening. Good to see that you're starting to come around to the normal point of view!

 

No one trusts you, Lee Harvey. You need to quote an article from a credible news source (not the Kremlin or the Worshippers of Putin Society) if you want anyone to believe you. Your fiction tends to be lame. Your evidence tends to be anything but . . . evidence.

 

That's the one thing that Trump COULD do to threaten Russia to come to the bargaining table with some willingness to bargain. He has to convince Putin that if he doesn't give enough to get an agreement from Zelenskyy, Trump will open the floodgates of weapons to Ukraine. He will open up the War Powers Act or whatever he has available to him to quadruple current U.S. artillery shell production, and increase the delivery of all weapons and ammunition. Then Putin will have to decide if Trump is bluffing.

 

a2a missile platform adapted to sea drone takes out russian attack helicopter

Putin's helicopter blasted using breakthrough sea drone in 'world first'

One of Vladimir Putin’s twin-turbine helicopters has been shot down by Ukraine using a Magura V5 sea drone over the Black Sea. It is the first time in the world that an aerial target was blasted using such a drone in what is a big success for Ukraine in the last few hours of 2024.

Footage shared by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence shows the strike on the M-8 military helicopter off the coast of Russian-occupied Crimea.

A statement said: ‘On December 31, 2024, soldiers of the GUR special unit Group 13 of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine for the first time in history hit an air target using a Magura V5 sea drone equipped with missile weapons.

‘During a battle in the Black Sea near Cape Tarkhankut of the temporarily occupied Crimea, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter was destroyed by the use of R-73 “Sea Dragon” missiles.’

 

You mean the Defense Production Act, not the WPR. The WPR restricts executive action.

 

That's basically how Reagan brought down the Iron Curtain, he essentially bankrupted the Soviet Union with the Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars) and other projects. It worked once, it will work again.