War in Ukraine

You do know that SecDef Austin, NSA Sullivan, and SecState Blinken have been talking with their Russian counterparts over the last 2 1/2 half years, correct?

 

Not according to Russia. According to Russia, Austin’s call (a couple of months ago?) was the first it had heard, from a high-ranking US official, in over two years.

 

Russia may well have suffered setbacks in the early weeks of the war, but during that time it had forced Ukraine to the table during which time Russia withdrew from Kyiv, as a good faith gesture. This gained currency, in Western circles, as Ukraine defeating Russia in “The Battle of Kyiv.”

F-22’s and F-35’s would fall flaming from the skies if they flew over Ukraine with impunity.

 

Not true:
Nov 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/senior...closed-talks-with-top-putin-aides-11667768988
March 2023
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/02/politics/antony-blinken-sergey-lavrov-g20/index.html
Feb 2024
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1798518/
Jun 2024
Pentagon head speaks with Russian counterpart for first time in a year

Those are official engagements and not back channel ones.

 

Please tell me how Russia forced Ukraine to the table by pulling out of Kyiv?

Well the second part of that sentence is correct, so you are starting to get there.

 

Why Won't the US Help Negotiate a Peaceful End to the War in Ukraine? — Jeffrey D. Sachs

 

Totally understand all of that. Speaking for self, I count on President Trump doing what he thinks suits his own interest (but conflating that with the national interest). As I have laid out, I think if he truly wants to end the war as quickly as possible, he will see a more successful path to the quickest plausible ending via pressuring Russia, not Ukraine. There are too many of the people he needs for more important goals who will not acquiesce to cutting off Ukraine, and trying to strangle off Ukraine would not effectively pressure Ukraine as well as many of the other things Trump could do to Russia. Of course, he has not asked for my opinion. We will see.

 

Israel had a lot of help tak8ng out Iranian missiles. US planes and destroyers, Jordan, the UK, France

I've heard many military experts say that Russia has the best air defenses in the world. Never heard a realexpert say that the US has the best defenses. Russia has the badass surface to surface missiles that terrify our military.

The US army is weak and would be defeated by the Russians (per Andrei Martyanov).

 

Israel’s latest ‘attack’ on Iran was likely a face-saving negotiated pin prick.

 

Of course it’s likely higher, possibly MUCH higher. Why else would our State Department be pressuring Ukraine to lower its conscription age to 18? And prior to that, why would elderly men and young women be fighting on the frontlines ?

 

While Isreal (intentionally) did relatively little damage to Iran on the ground I wouldn't call taking out the Islamic Republic's air defense system a pin prick. The message from Israel was that next time it could be much worse.
Israel took out primary Iranian air defenses, left it ‘essentially naked’ – report
Israel Struck Air Defenses Around Critical Iranian Energy Sites, Officials Say
Israel's Attack On Iran Has Left Tehran Offensively And Defensively Weaker

 

Links noted. Will you note that they are much disputed ? I can post the contrary links. Only takes a few seconds to find them.

 

It's been suggested that one of the reasons Hezbollah agreed to the ceasefire and withdrawal in Lebanon was that it could no longer count on indefinite and nearly unlimited support from Iran, a direct consequence of the Israeli attack.

 

Just so. It was an ancient diplomatic-military message first attributed to Sun Tzu circa the 6th Century BCE, which we abbreviate today as FAFO. I note that Iran has not FAd since to FO what Israel might do next time.

 

That’s quite a leap I would say. Iran reportedly has thousands of missiles (and air defense systems) tucked away in its vast nuke-hardened underground facilities.

Some accounts had Iran secreting prized assets prior to the last Israeli strike. This would lend credence to reports that the attack was negotiated and amounted to a nothingburger.

Truth is we don’t know who, between Israel and Hezbollah, cried uncle. FWIW, 61% of Israelis believe they’ve lost the war.

If the case, that’s the third defeat Hezbollah has inflicted on Israel since 2006.

 

That is a possibility. Unfortunately, we will not know the whole truth on that for a while if ever. And in the mean, people will read exactly want they want to read:

“It was clearly Israel’s show of force.”

“Nonsense. It was a diplomatic coup by Jake Sullivan, who would have made Ikenberry’s dream of peace and love breaking out all over the world if he had just been given four more years.”

“Bullshit! It was because the Iranians knew that Trump was coming back to town, and they know if they don’t start behaving, Trump is going to turn their shithole country into a parking lot with balls of fire from his eyes and bolts of lightning from his ass!”

“It’s the third prophesied sign that you-know-who is coming back … Elvis!”

 

That was my recollection per what I heard from Greg Copley on the John Batchelor show. Wasn't positive and didn't feel like looking it up.

 

Russia’s fearsome S-400 air-defense system isn’t quite living up to the hype in Ukraine – Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
That Time US Forces Tore Hundreds of Russian Wagner Group Mercenaries to Pieces in Syria
I would add that the Wagner Group Mercenaries were probably better soldiers than the regular Russian Army which includes a large number of poorly trained conscripts. I would concede that the Russia is gradually winning in Ukraine primarily because numbers do matter and Putin is willing to sacrifice large numbers of Russian troops.

 

More excellent insight from the blog Moon of Alabama:

How The New Russian Missiles Are Changing The Game

To describe a weapon system as a game changer on the battlefield is always open to be ridiculed. Many of the weapon systems that have been delivered to Ukraine were called game changing but failed to make any difference in the outcome of that war.

So why did I call the new Russian Oreshnik missile a 'game changer'?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/11/how-the-new-russian-missiles-are-changing-the-game.html1

One Oreshnik missile carries 36 warheads and reportedly took out a 1 square mile underground nuclear facility recently as I posted on this thread yesterday.

 

Can you expand on this a bit? Particularly in regards to President Trump's agency to restrict aid? Does he not have veto powers and wouldn't be awfully difficult to find 20 GOP senators to buck the first GOP president in 20 years to win the popular vote? Perhaps I misunderstood you. I happen to think there is very little standing in the way of President Trump restricting aid to Ukraine via his agency.