War in Ukraine

Russia cancels the census..not good, don't want to know

Russia Scraps Population Census As War Casualties Mount (msn.com)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a federal law suspending part of the All-Russian Population Census.

According to some sources, this measure is intended to hide Russian society from the demographic impact that the casualties in Ukraine are having on the population.

A tally by independent Russian media outlet Mediazona and BBC News Russian released on September 27 said more than 71,057 Russian soldiers had been confirmed to have been killed, an increase of 1,998 since its last update in mid-September, although an estimate by Kyiv in the same month put the Moscow's total losses at 649,170.

 

It’s not just the dead it’s those fleeing to avoid conscription. They have a negative replacement rate before the war. The dead and those fleeing are going to exacerbate this issue.

 

Think about how many lives would have been saved if the west would have allowed the use of long range weapons to do this a year ago. Respect to whoever helped them put together their own domestic long-range weapons program and their targeting acquisition system, now taking a real bite out of the russian dog. the artillery shortages are beginning to show up on the front lines now, cutting back on the glide bombs will help Ukraine be able to hold defensive positions. they seem to have no counter for the glide bombs. I had hoped that the f-16's would be able to inflict enough damage on the bombers to push them back but apparently that hasn't happened

Ukrainian drones attack Russian airfield, target jets and ammo depot - NV sources (msn.com)

The attack focused on ammunition depots with guided bombs, parking areas for SU-35 and SU-34 jets, and aviation fuel storage facilities.

Satellite monitoring recorded four fires at the airfield, while local social media reported air defense engagement on drones in the area and powerful explosions.

“The SBU continues to take active measures to reduce the enemy's ability to terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities with fighter jets carrying guided bombs,” a source said.

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Ukrainian officials continue to highlight how Ukraine is reducing Russia's battlefield artillery ammunition advantage, likely in part due to recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots. Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk stated on October 1 that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian artillery ammunition usage decreased from 8-to-1 in favor of Russian forces in Winter 2024 to 3-to-1 as of early October 2024.[14] A Russian milblogger, who is often critical of Russian authorities, claimed on September 30 that Russian forces in various sectors of the front are suffering from artillery ammunition shortages, possibly due to recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots, including the September 18 strike against a Russian missile and storage ammunition storage facility near Toropets, Tver Oblast and the September 21 strike against the Tikhoretsk Arsenal in Krasnodar Krai.[15] The milblogger complained that Russian defense industrial factories, which are operating every day, should still be able to produce and deliver ammunition to the Russian military but appear to be failing to do so. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on September 5 that Russian forces were firing two to 2.5 more artillery shells than Ukrainian forces but that Ukrainian forces were narrowing the gap.[16] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also stated on September 13 that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian artillery ammunition usage in the Pokrovsk direction decreased from 12-to-1 in favor of Russian forces to 2.5-to-1 after the start of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024.[17] Ukrainian officials' statements in early September 2024 about Russia's decreased artillery ammunition advantage suggest that although the recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots have likely decreased Russian artillery supplies, the strikes are likely not the only contributor to reportedly reduced Russian shell supplies. Western-provided military aid and increasing Ukrainian domestic ammunition production may have also allowed Ukraine to increase its ammunition usage.[18]

 

will this help extend the range of the f-16's forward?

Ukraine ATACMS Strikes Destroy Long-Range Russian Radar Station Worth $100M (msn.com)

Ukrainian forces have struck a valuable Russian radar station using U.S.-supplied long-range missiles, Kyiv said on Thursday, in a move that could disrupt Moscow's air defenses and open up Russian targets to further attacks using sophisticated Western weapons.

Ukraine destroyed a Russian Nebo-M long-range radar station in an unspecified location, Kyiv's military said in a statement posted to social media, without giving further details.

 

Whatever happened with gas station masquerading as a country subsisting on zoo animals and reduced to fighting with shovels ?

 

The mainstream media has taken over the terrain in frank admissions about how badly things are going, for the US, in Ukraine.

Alt-media says, “Hey! What about us ?”

 

Maybe, but the real limitation in that regard seems to be not (yet) having all of the long-range munitions an F-16 can employ and/or not (yet) having permission to use them to their maximum effective range. Where the further degradation of Russia's integrated air defense system might have a positive effect is that it lets F-16s get close enough to the front to employ them in a close air support role. But I think the main limitation in that case is the small number of F-16s (and trained aviators) available at this time. For the moment, they seem to be most valuable in their air-to-air role, and the Russians knowing that F-16s are about with air-to-air weapons that can outrange anything Russia can put into the sky keeps their air component farther back than the Russian ground component would like. Russia is further away today from have air superiority over Ukraine than it was in February 2022, when air superiority was supposed be an established fact within 12 to 48 hours of hostilities commencing.

 

While Russia goes from strength to strength, commentary on why it would take as much money, as has been allocated to Ukraine, to bring the NYC subway up to THIRD WORLD standards …

Just to bring it to third world level standards - removing mold, installing ceilings, installing platform train barriers at every station, will take well over $100B at current capital costs. Most of current MTA stations wouldn't pass inspection in literally any country in the world, including Africa. To bring it to at least US minimum federal standards, aka ADA compliance and elevators at every station/entrance, clearly marked signage/exits, fire emergency fluorescent tape, emergency lights and backup generators, would require tens of billions in addition. And we are talking nothing fancy here, just bare bones standard basic compliance you'd see at any private business.

 

The worm turns. Anne Applebaum despairs …

The Only Way the Ukraine War Can End

 

are the russians still able to deploy glide bombs on the front lines? those seem to change the dynamic of being to hold a defensive position

 

I assume Russians are still able to deploy glide bombs but have not heard about any successful glide bomb attacks lately. Certainly, the Ukrainians have taken some steps that have made such attacks more difficult. First, they have pushed back the release range by introducing F-16s into the fight. These bombs have not been terribly accurate by Western standards and have only shown decent effects against area targets, like towns (which sucks, of course, if you're in one of those towns). Moving back that release point is going to make them even more inaccurate, and given how many are already landing short of Russian lines that is only going to make the situation worse for Russia. Second, Ukraine presumably destroyed at least some of the inventory in their three successful strikes on munitions depots. I'm afraid it's not going to be public knowledge for some time how much of an interruption that caused (is causing) in the Russian supply chain.

 

When you’ve lost The Beast …

Zelensky Pushes Ukraine ‘Victory Plan,’ but Frontline Troops Stare at Defeat

 

is this how it begins? a mothers me too group coming out against colonel that someone else ahd praised as a hero after an initial accusation..

‘Drunk’ colonel sending troops to their deaths sparks Russian TV row (msn.com)

Vladimir Solovyov, the host of state TV Rossiya-One’s daily chat show, last month described soldiers’ widows as liars for accusing Col Alexei Ksenofontov of being drunk and then sending their husbands to their deaths. “Alexei is a normal commander, a thinking commander capable of competently preparing and carrying out a task,” he said. “They have slandered a hero.”

But instead of silencing the mourning women, Mr Solovyov’s intervention has heaped more embarrassment onto the Kremlin by triggering new accusations and also given ordinary Russians a rare glimpse of the medieval techniques used by their military commanders.
...........
One woman wrote on the Kremlin-controlled VK social media website that she wanted Col Ksenofontov, whose call sign is “Tiger”, to die just as her husband had. “Solovyov, interview all of us. Look how many women are cursing your Ksenofontov. Talk to the women who wish death to the Tiger,” she wrote.

Criticising the Russian army comes at great risk for people living in Russia. Police arrest people for the slightest indiscretion and charge them with “discrediting the Russian army”, which carries a prison sentence. Mothers and wives of soldiers in Russia were considered to have some leeway for criticising the government but, earlier this year, police detained several women and have now classified a group that had pushed for men mobilised into the army in 2022 to be given a break as a “foreign agent”. This is a derogatory term and makes it far harder for the group to operate.

 

That's how the wheels started to come off in Afghanistan. The mothers and wives. And there are lot more women whose sons and husbands won't be coming home this time around.

 

that new drone production unit making something the russians don't seem to have a response for. these logistics blows are beginning to show up on the front. it is only going to g get better for Ukraine from here

Oil depot in Russia's Voronezh Oblast attacked by Ukrainian drones contained 20 fuel tanks (msn.com)

Drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) and other units from the Ukrainian defence forces are known to have targeted an oil depot belonging to the firm Annanefteprodukt near the village of Anna in Russia's Voronezh Oblast on the night of 3-4 October. The Ukrainska Pravda source noted that 20 tanks containing fuel and lubricants had been located there.

The source explained that Russian air defence systems were actively engaged but failed to intercept the UAVs near the base. Local residents reported five heavy drone strikes, which were followed by a large-scale fire.

Quote: "In addition to active operations targeting Russian airfields and warehouses containing missile and guided aerial bombs, the SSU does not forget about oil depots on enemy territory. They are an important logistical component of warfare. The velvet season of ‘cotton’ is in full swing." [Russian propaganda, initially refusing to use the word ‘vzryv’ (explosion), used ‘khlopok’ (a bang) instead. However, ‘khlopok’ also means ‘cotton’, and this has since become a meme – ed.]

 

Russia has lost access to CERN in a sign that its war in Ukraine is causing a major scientific brain drain

Another small move to contribute to Russia’s self-inflicted brain drain. I’d prefer a decisive, embarrassing defeat in the field, but I’ll take a long slow death by a thousand little cuts like this one.

 

Russia is sitting on an economic time bomb, as Putin mortgages Russia's future to support his war in Ukraine. Russia's economy is not yet near collapse, but the long-term damage is real. Russia spent a lot of money setting up market institutions in the 1990's, and now Putin is dismantling them on the cheap to get money for weapons and soldiers.

This will combine with Russia's neglected and collapsing physical infrastructure to put a heavy burden on Putin's successor, with much fewer people available to rebuild the country.

Russia is facing a 'time bomb' at the heart of its economy, economist says

 

“About those sanctions, we forgot to tell you they might take four or five years or more.”