War in Ukraine

I've been curious to know which locations would have resources pulled to support the Kursk defense.

Time for a push into Severodonetsk?

Though that looks to be a tall task for a military operation from Ukranian controlled territory. (Here is a great interactive map showing different details, including Russian field fortifications).

Severodonetsk does look to be a dealing with a lot of partisan conflict. Reduced Russian army presence won't help control that...

 

If you have the weapons and the delivery system, sure.

 

Does Ukraine retreat in Kursk before they lose the brigades in totality or do they stay and fight until the last man is standing? I'm guessing they won't wait long to make a tactical retreat. I mean, they have to.

 

Russians tend to create a fire bag which leaves the option for retreat. Of course earlier in the war elite units would block retreating Ukies and force them back or shoot them.

 

Very good podcast that talks about what is going on in Ukraine right now. I do not agree with all of Fred Kagan points but he gets the majority of it right.

Putin’s Pity Party

 

About that creepy Kagan cabal …

 

The Russian Lancet drone may be the MVP of the war …

 

Might take quite a few drones to carry that one though. LOL

 

Ukraine Matters (Podcast) suggests force level deployment in the Kursk region as of yesterday:

Ukraine 10,000
Ski's 15,000

I have no other source to verify these numbers against.
No doubt Ski's are trying to get soldiers in though.

 

Reportedly Ukies began the incursion with +15,000 troops. Do the math.

 

A very good read. Thanks for posting. I thought the following nailed it pretty much.


“we're confronting the Russian threat with Ukrainian lives and our dollars. That's the best deal we're ever going to have. If we frankly piss it away because we decide that we don't feel like paying the dollars anymore, we are going to end up having to confront this with American lives.

“At the beginning of the war, a lot of people, including me, said that in response to the people who said, we should really be worried about China and not Russia, and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I would make the point, I was not alone in this, saying, well, if you want to deter China from going after Taiwan, successfully beat Russia's attempt to take over Ukraine. I still believe that's true.

 

Roughly the middle 20% who decide all elections in this country. The so-called swing voters. That percentage changes a bit with each election, but it regresses toward that mean of 20%.

First, I was responding to your more general statement that there was "no downside" to being brutally honest as a politician. I would counter there is a huge downside to not being tactful, diplomatic, and statesmanlike. And it is one of the things that some people, who otherwise agree with Trump's policies, can't stand about him as a person.

Second, more specifically, what Putin did might have been a "brilliant geopolitical move" if he had restrained himself to just putting regular Russian troops into Donbas, ostensibly as "peacekeepers." But that is not what he did. What he did was a full-scale invasion of his neighbor that has not remotely gone as planned. It doesn't matter how much you want to polish this turd, this war has been disastrous for Russia and Putin, the only question is how disastrous it ends up being. If it had gone according to plan -- with Russia firmly in control of everything east of the Dneiper, a land bridge to Transnistria (annexed, of course), complete control of the northern coast of the Black Sea, including Odesa; the “Nazi” regime overthrown with Russia-controlled governments in charge of nominal Ukraine and Moldova rump states; the Russian military allowed to base in Ukraine and Moldova with unfettered access to their airspace; and, most importantly, with minimal casualties and damage to the Russian war machine — then that might have been a “brilliant geopolitical move,” regardless of whatever sanctions or finger wagging Jake Sullivan would have had on offer. But, instead … well, you don’t need to be reminded of the terrible casualties and damage Russia has taken, that its military has been exposed on the order of what SWAC suffered last weekend, that it now has to suffer the indignity of being the junior partner in its relationship with China for the first time in its history, that it has added to NATO instead of subtracting from it as intended, that the Black Sea Fleet has been emasculated instead of securing its anchorage as intended, and so on. There is no longer any question of Russia "winning" this war in terms of its end state desired in February 2022; there is only the question of how much face Russia can save in terminating it. We can argue about a lot, but that last point is beyond question.

Third, even if Putin had been limiting himself to a "brilliant geopolitical move" instead of what he did, a smart man knows that you don't want to appear to be gloating about a national adversary's moves for domestic political gain. Hitler made lots of "smart, savvy moves" in 1940 (invading Denmark and Norway to break the Allied blockade for instance), but they were also terrible for the people who were in the way. So maybe even if we admire the move from a purely strategic point of view, we keep those observations to the privacy of our discussions with our national security team. And if we simply must say something, then condemn the move and point out how Biden (really Sullivan) dropped the ball once again in anticipating the moves of these revisionist powers and standing up to them.

Fourth, exactly because of Trump's thoughtless verbal diarrhea we are having this unnecessary discussion today. Dozens of times in this very thread and countless times outside of it, I have heard the false claim that Trump called Putin's invasion "smart" and "savvy." He did not. The invasion had not happened yet, and no one other than Putin was certain that it would happen. Trump was talking about something else. Yet, today, if you ask the average person, they believe Trump said that. Trump did that to himself with his undisciplined mouth. And you can go on shrugging about it, but that tendency of his to shoot his mouth off without thinking through the second and third-order effects is going to cost him this election and get Kamala crowned to your utter disgust.

Fifth, what about this whole situation suggests "no demonstrable harm" to you?

 

^ Fact Check: Putin did indeed inject a small number of troops, perhaps as few as 80k, in a policing action he designated as an SMO.

The SMO had the effect of forcing Ukraine to the table for negotiations now known as the Istanbul Accords, whereupon UK and US nixed the accords and enjoined Ukraine to fight to the end.

I suspect we’re close to the end.

 

5,000 on the way to Moscow to take over the Kremlin?

 

Where are you reading that?

 

I would think the Kerch Bridge might be open for target practice for Ukraine's glide bombs and F-16 attacks. The bridge is only 207 miles from Kherson. Save the longer-range weapons for longer-range targets inside of Russia. Ukraine has 24 air bases and nearly as many refineries and oil/fuel depots to attack.

 

Russian Military Bloggers Are Panicking After Telegram Chief's Arrest (msn.com)

Russian military bloggers are panicking after Pavel Durov, billionaire founder and CEO of the Telegram messaging app, was arrested at a Paris airport on Saturday evening.
As news broke that Russian-born Durov was detained after his private jet landed at Le Bourget airport, pro-war military analysts and bloggers took to the platform to lament the future of the conflict in Ukraine, highlighting that Telegram is a critical means of communication within the Russian army.

Responding to the news, Russian journalist Alexander Sladkov said that Russia's military conducts half of its communications via the messaging app, and said an alternative must be created "urgently." "Pavel Durov was arrested. This attack on the owner of [Telegram], on which half of the communications in the [war] are held, was expected. Now we urgently need to create a Russian military messenger," he wrote.

"Well, was it impossible to think about this earlier?! Why did the Wagner Group have such a messenger, but the armed forces of our great Russia do not!?!?" Sladkov said, referring to the Russian paramilitary outfit which was led by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. "And there is no one to punish. Or maybe we shouldn't look for the guilty? Russia's punishment is carelessness. And this is a nightmare."

Russian military blogger Alexei Sukonkin said Durov's arrest "raises a host of problems that need to be addressed immediately."

 

wonder how far away the ships were that launched the missiles or if they came from the three subs supposedly in the Black Sea

Does Turkey monitor or allow subs to enter the Black Sea?

Russia's largest attack on Ukraine just showed that its Black Sea Fleet is still dangerous despite its heavy losses (msn.com)
Ukraine's air force said it detected 127 missiles launched by Russian aircraft, ground forces, and warships, as well as an additional 109 drones. Kyiv said that it destroyed 102 missiles and 99 drones during the massive barrage.
.............
Despite these substantial setbacks to the fleet, a spokesperson for Ukraine's navy said earlier this year that Russia maintains a serious presence in the Black Sea, including a combination of missile carriers, submarines, and patrol ships. Three Russian cruise missile submarines were spotted in the broad Black Sea area just a few weeks ago.
.............
On Monday, Russia also launched ballistic missiles and cruise missiles from other platforms during its huge bombardment, including Tu-95 strategic bombers, Su-34 fighter-bombers, and Su-57 fifth-generation aircraft, Ukraine said, adding that its forces shot down 201 of the 236 aerial threats.

 

Our resident troll was asking someone to do the math for him. He claims that there were originally 15,000 Ukrainians in Kursk, and now there are 10,000. He seems to be implying that 5,000 were killed, which is absurd on the face of it, considering how little resistance the Russians have put up so far. I was simply pointing out that they could have relocated to outside the province.