War in Ukraine

I surely want a week long, clothing optional vacation with Marissa Miller. It does not mean I have the ways and means to achieve that end.

 

They would never nuke their own soil unless they could pretend that Ukraine (or a western country) did it, which is very unlikely in the case of Ukraine, and would demand retaliation if a western country allegedly did it. They would easily use cluster munitions or land mines on their own soil, and cover up the Russian deaths caused by them. But not nukes. Nukes would probably kill what little fighting spirit the Russian army has, and lead to mass surrenders or another coup attempt.

 

I think it is because the U.S. is threatening the Chinese banks with sanctions if they process Russian transactions, and that would probably kill China's trade with the west if the banks did not stop dealing with Russia.

 

I would suspect that China has been supplying Russia with computer chips for their weapons. They may be only accepting payment in gold bars and Faberge eggs, but that is my take. The Russian factories only put 20-25 tanks a month, and that number may be reduced by the efforts to take old tanks ("moving targets" to Ukraine) out of storage and refurbish them. They are probably refurbishing 70-80 old tanks a month, and making 15-25 new ones. The process would be slowed by the need to commission the tanks and troubleshoot any problems found.

 

I doubt that the Russian public has any interest in this fight. Most of their current soldiers don't. There's probably a handful of military bloggers that believe their own propaganda enough to put on a military uniform, but everyone who had any interest in signing up for this war already has. Most would correctly view it, especially with little or no military training, as a suicide mission.

The people in a democratic country have a much more vested interest in the defense of the country than those in a repressive dictatorship. Especially if they know that they will not remain under enemy control for any long-term period of time. Look at the reaction so far--widespread evacuations. When Russia was initially invading Ukraine, there were a lot of Ukrainian partisans that were undermining the Russians, reporting the locations of the Russians, hiding or poisoning food, and generally making things miserable for the invaders. And so many Ukrainians refused to evacuate until their house collapsed underneath them. Putin so far has resisted any urge to make a call to arms for the local people to rise up against the Ukrainians because that destroys the narrative that he is in control of this war.

 

We might have said the same thing about the UAF two weeks ago. No chance they had the firepower to mount a sustainable offensive into Russian territory. Although, granted Odesa would be a much tougher haul than some forestland in western Russia.

 

Big news. Ukraine uses a hydrogen bomb on the Russians outside of Vovchansk. Maybe not the kind of hydrogen bomb you may be thinking of, however. Just a Toyota Mirai outfitted with plastic explosives around the hydrogen fuel tank, set up for remote driving. They used a pizza delivery bot to convince the Russians that they were about to get free pizza. The Russian army may never order pizza again.

Toyota Mirai Turned Into Hydrogen Bomb By Ukrainian Forces Explodes With The Force Of 400 Pounds Of TNT

The explosion hit a Russian-controlled building that went up in flames, apparently because it was used for ammunition storage.

Ukrainians Turned a Toyota Mirai Into a Hydrogen Bomb to Use Against Russia

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ru...n-response-to-kursk-invasion-c0a11eee?mod=mhp



SUMY, Ukraine—Russia is withdrawing some of its military forces from Ukraine to respond to a Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory, U.S. officials said, the first sign that Kyiv’s incursion is forcing Moscow to rejigger its invasion force.

The officials said the U.S. is still seeking to determine the significance of Russia’s move and didn’t say how many troops the U.S. assesses Russia is shifting. But the new U.S. assessment bolsters claims by Ukrainian officials who said last week’s surprise invasion of Kursk province had drawn Russian forces away from Ukraine, where Moscow’s advantage in manpower and equipment is allowing them to grind forward in several places.

Ukraine, meanwhile, sent tanks and other armored vehicles to reinforce troops that have stunned the Kremlin by seizing a chunk of Russian territory.

Ukrainian forces have advanced at least 20 miles into Russian territory since launching the surprise assault last week, quickly overrunning the lightly defended border. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his military and security forces to eject Kyiv’s military, but Russia is struggling to mount a coherent response.

 

Russia's border was mainly guarded by "kids and conscripts", according to Ukrainian troops.

Russia left 'mainly kids' and conscripts to defend its borders, Ukrainian soldier says after surprise attack

 

Understood. Those sanctions have been in place but it is just recent that a lot of the smaller banks have started adhering to them. Big banks pulled back in April/May so they went to smaller banks. Those banks have now closed it down too and I supect those banks don't need access to US banks
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Exclusive: China firms go 'underground' on Russia payments as banks pull back | Reuters
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Russian Banks Grapple With Yuan Liquidity Issues Amid US Sanctions - Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

combine the fact that the small banks shut it down (made to by Xi??) along with chinese gubmnt sponsored hackers hitting russian gubmnt institutions and it looks to me like Xi is putting the screws to Putin. Just have to wonder if some oligarch tired of it has cut a deal with Xi

 

Ukraine takes control of another 40 sq km of Russia. They now have control of 74 settlements in Russia.

Ukraine claims new advances in Russia incursion

 

desertions up, no water for the soldiers on the front

Russian Army Desertions Are Surging, Court Records Indicate - Newsweek

Russian courts have received more cases of soldiers accused of leaving their units without permission so far in 2024 than were registered for all of 2023, according to independent Russian media.

Since the start of this year, Russian courts have gotten 5,204 cases of military personnel accused of abandoning their positions without authorization, Russian opposition outlet Mediazona reported on Monday. Throughout 2023, the courts logged 5,096 cases, according to the outlet.

The British Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that troops were being "forced to improvise filtration attempts, using stagnant puddles for daily water requirements."
The shortage of drinking water meant Russian forces were likely experiencing spikes in waterborne diseases and dehydration, not to mention low morale and their feelings about how well they can fight, the British ministry added. The Russian government did not respond to Newsweek's emailed request for comment.

 

I would like to caution you the same I used to advise the pro-Russian side: The scoreboard in this war is not in terrain captured. Ukraine wins nothing in this operation if it does not bring Russia to a decisive defeat in the field, or failing that, gets its invasion force back to Ukraine largely intact. Simply taking ground it cannot ultimately hold means nothing if does not come with a big bag of prisoners and/or a broken nose for the force Russia must send to eject the raiders. With the information we have right now, things look on the upswing for Ukraine. But the military history nerd would point out that the Gettysburg Campaign was going well for Lee … until it wasn’t. If Russia has any strategic sense (no evidence of that in the last few years), then it would draw in the Ukrainian force as deeply as it could and cut it off with two pincer spearheads when the Ukrainian logistics lines are stretched thin. Ukraine can’t let that happen. This might be the point where they stop pursuing the Russians and grab good defensive terrain that the Russians can’t ignore. Force them to attack in unfavorable circumstances, then withdraw before decisively engaged. Hopefully, that’s what Ukraine has in mind.

 

Doesn’t opening a new front that allows them to take advantage of their maneuverability offer them some advantages? I keep reading how fighting on Russian soil makes glide bombs less an issue and it’s not mined.

 

I think this is the important part. Even if Ukraine withdrawals today, if they do so with minimal casualties then it is still a huge victory (I Believe they already have prisoners in hand).

 

And the prevailing winds would send the fallout east over Russia. Not a great idea.

 

Parts of it are not mined. My understanding is it ain’t much.

 

Props to Graham. A republican not carrying water for pootie pie.