War in Ukraine

People still can't figure out the goal for Ukraine in this sector - but they appear to be moving more North than anything - so people are assuming they are gunning for the power plant, but the fog of war is heavy on both sides. No one really knows anything. Even the russian milbloggers have been quiet. Really interesting development. The one thing that does present Ukraine with an opportunity is it does look like Russia is not treating the incursion as seriously as it could - for political reasons.

 

Podcasts I'm watching show exactly this, Russian convoys getting ripped to pieces.

 

You do agree if Russia pushes them back to the border, it's a double whammy for Ukraine, as they are still losing ground on the front lines in the Donbas. Whether or not you are ready to believe that will happen, you at least have to consider the possibility and subsequent ramification. If there are 10,000 Ukrainian troops involved with this incursion as is being reported, if the UAF there get encircled and killed or taken prisoner, that's going to be a huge problem for them, no?

 

Didn't link it, now can't find it. Oops

 

Russia is in "counter-terror" mode over the Ukrainian invasion of their beloved homeland. Over 76,000 Russians have been evacuated. Russia's national anti-terrorism committee is in full combat mode and monitoring the situation closely. Russia's national pro-terrorism committee is determined to compete with the anti-terrorism committee for attention by conducting pro-terrorism operations in Kiev. The two committees are kept apart by a thick wall in the Kremlin.

Russia evacuates tens of thousands amid Ukraine incursion

 

Some analysis about why the Ukraine invasion of Russia is both so difficult to defend, and so dangerous for Putin. This surprise attack forces Russia to mobilize and re-locate forces, and set up new logistical lines, which are things that Russia is notoriously bad at. At the rate things are going, Russia could be ready for a counter-attack before Christmas . . . This invasion cuts into Putin's narrative that the war is going well and is under control.

Ukraine’s surprise attack into Russia ups ante for Putin

 

I mean if they lose a bunch of men without accomplishing their objective I’d say that’s bad. Obviously. I mean what you’ve described is pretty worst case though.

 

Then there is that time tested Russian strategy of waiting for winter.

 

I'd like to see Ukraine take out a couple of Russian schools but ONLY on weekends when children are NOT there. Strike a little fear into the locals' hearts and give them a small taste of the war crimes being committed daily in their name. Let the war they started come closer to home.

 

by essentially declaring marshall law and allowing troops to be judge and jury on fellow russians, toss people out of their homes, take their cars, shut down the internet and cell service, etc he is going to anger a lot of russians

 

this isn't good. russia making threats?

Huge fire at Ukraine's biggest nuclear power plant with black smoke filling sky (msn.com)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russian forces of starting a huge fire at a nuclear power plant in the country's south, describing it as a "provocation" by Russia. Ukrainian officials posted chilling footage of the inferno inside a chimney tower at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, in a Russian-controlled corner of south-east Ukraine.

The head of the military administration of Nikopol, Yevhen Yevtushenko, said Russian forces set fire to car tires in the cooling towers to make it appear as though a fire had broken out. "Perhaps this is a provocation or an attempt to create panic in the settlements on the right bank of the former reservoir," he said.

Zelenskyy said Russia was using the plant to blackmail Ukraine and playing on Western fears of escalation."The Russian occupiers started a fire on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant," Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram.

 

Whatever happened to Moscow in 3 days ?

 

I think you're confusing Ukraine's non-existent plan with Putin's real (and fortunately failed) plan to take Kyiv in three days. From the first two days of the Russian invasion.
Russia presses invasion to outskirts of Ukrainian capital
Western Allies See Kyiv Falling to Russian Army Within Hours
Those predictions turned out to be wrong as did your multiple predictions of a Russian victory. On the other hand if Trump is elected your prediction may finally be accurate in the end.

 

Winters are not quite as severe or predictable (thanks to global warming and Russia's gas and oil production) as they used to be. And a lot of things can happen between now and January.

 

Fighting in Kursk Oblast poses extreme risk: 'Either we beat Russians or we break,' says expert Stupak (msn.com)


But indeed, either we will beat the Russians this way, and they will break, or we will break. Nobody knows right now—not in the President's Office, not in the Pentagon, not on Downing Street—no one knows the consequences of the operation.

The history of military affairs is being written here, without exaggeration. If everything goes well, this moment will be historic. It will be studied, without exaggeration, in almost all military academies for another 10-20 years. On par with the operation in the Korean War, when the United States defeated the North Korean troops and landed in other locations, cutting off the North Korean and Chinese troops. All this will be studied.

We want to believe that we will be able to hold onto these territories, break the Russians' offensive potential, and, as an option, put these territories up for auction or exchange during peace talks.

 

G8tr - One item I am not seeing on this thread, one Podcaster I listen too, (he is not just your everyman podcaster either, he has been cited and given awards by the "Ukranian military") advises that this may be "MORE" than what is just on the surface. As in a "feint" with a renewed offensive in the Donetsk.

To be clear, his sources are NOT suggesting that, Ukraine is very tight lipped about any info. right now. But the guy is pretty savy. Obviously Ukrainian resourses are not without limit, and I am hearing conflicting information about the scale of the Kursk offensive, 2 brigades, up to 8 brigades are being cited.

It would be tremendous if the podcasters instincts are correct, Ski's send Donetsk forces to Kursk giving Ukraine a better shot. But thats pure speculation.

What is not speculation is Ukraine is hitting that Kursk area in additional areas, north and south of the main effort, which is very interesting.

Also, some Ukrainian units seem to be much further afield than is currently reported. Check out the Russian "Re-Bar" podcaster, totally pro-Russian.
Many use "Re-bar" as solid source material because that is essentially Russian information, not Pro-Ukrainian.

As Chem pointed out 76,000 evacuees is no small matter and as Ukraine continues to be successful that number is increasing.

 

I am guessing that Ukraine is trying to encircle the Russian incursion. I think that would be a psychologically strong position and I think unprepared Russian cannon fodder would set records for surrendering.

 

Russia's sluggish military command: exposed. Vladimir Putin: humiliated. Apparently, Russia's military takes a week or more to react to news, as information moves up and down the chain of command and everyone assesses their chance of being executed for not reacting correctly. The result is no reaction until the orders come from on high.

Ukraine exposed Russia's sluggish military command with its Kursk invasion, analysts say

 

Russian evacuations from Kursk have exceeded 120,000. Over 44,000 have applied for financial assistance that Moscow doesn't have. Putin now knows what "the main task" is, so Russia is starting to figure out what is going on.

Putin orders army to 'dislodge' Ukraine as over 120,000 flee border