War in Ukraine

Yeah - Ukraine has a pretty big advantage in open ground that isn't heavily mined where troops are mobile and not stationary.
It'll be interesting to see if they decide to reinforce this because it's not like Russia has a thick defensive line as they move further into this region. It is way way way different than operations in other parts of the front that have heavy fortifications and multiple lines of fortifications. It's also harder to hit them with glide bombs when Ukraine is mobile and not stationary.

 

I give it three weeks before Russia has it cleared out and is in the Sumy region toppling Ukrainian villages.

 

Just read this. I think it’s a brilliant move putting nudes on these leaflets. Frankly, I’m confused about the confusion some seem to have in this article. “Why is Ukraine putting nudes on these leaflets? What is the message here?” Don’t know how to say this tactfully. There is no “message” here. The Ukrainians simply understand that young Russian soldiers, stuck at the front for months, will pick up and pocket pictures of naked women (and therefore will have surrender instructions at the ready).

Ukraine drops leaflets in Russia with NUDES warning Putin’s troops to surrender

 

That could very well be. And what part of the front is Russia going to have to weaken to make that happen? Is Russia now going to have to fortify its entire border with Ukraine, not just the Donbas? I don’t know the answers to these questions either, but Russia is going to have to do something they were not planning on.

 

I don't believe that's even being considered. If Russia are able to move these Ukrainian soldiers out of the Kursk region pretty quickly, it will be a colossal loss for Ukraine and they'll have to think twice about doing it again.

 

First, Russia has not done any of that yet, and they certainly have not done it effortlessly as you seem to be predicting. Second, if you worked for Putin, how do assure him that Ukraine is not simply going to do this again in six months? They are going to have to do something, I promise you. This is at the very least embarrassing for Russia.

 

This doesn't really mean much in the long run.

 

PR is actually pretty important in this war. The information war has been hard fought - any victories Ukraine can win there are pretty important.

Not to mention, again, I think there are potentially some significant operational victories Ukraine could have here if Russia has trouble mobilizing an effective response. Again, it's not like the defensive lines are super fortified in the north. Russia is trying to mobilize about 2,000 troops to cut this off. Will that even be enough in open space like this? IDK. Should be interesting to watch.

Of course, on the flip side, Ukraine could just go home tomorrow - it's hard to say without knowing their objectives.

 

That is a potential outcome, but historically speaking dictators can’t afford to be embarrassed in the manner you airily assume. Putin has been confidently projecting that victory is in Russia’s grasp, and Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. Right now, many Russians are saying aloud (just like I am), “Wait a minute. How does a nation supposedly hanging by its fingernails pull something like this off without Russia figuring it out first?” Not a perfect analogy for a couple of reasons, but it brings to mind the North Vietnamese Tet Offensive in 1968. From a strictly military perspective, a disaster for the Communists. The VC was eliminated as a fighting force, the Americans held Khe Sanh, and North Vietnam suffered tremendous, disproportionate casualties while not gaining any ground to speak of. After getting over the initial shock, our military was elated. It was too busy fighting to see how the battle was playing out in U.S. public opinion, and it thought it finally had the victory that would make the American people proud. Not so much. Frankly, none of that is the part that rhymes for me, especially since we don’t yet understand Ukraine’s objectives nor can we anticipate how well Russia will respond. The part that resonates with me is the strategic and psychological surprise Hanoi pulled off, which led to crisis of confidence among the President’s stakeholders and concluded with his dropping out of the race just two months later. If you think that Putin is not sweating where this going, then I have a bridge to sell you.

 

Russia is back to bombing its own country again, this time with their massive glide bombs desperately dropped on their own city to try to remove the Ukrainian invasion on the second day. Ukraine seems to have a message for Putin: "We captured part of Russia, and we're keeping it. Prove us wrong."

Ironically, the Russian foreign ministry, totally lacking in self-awareness, demanded that the international community "condemn the criminal actions of the Kiev regime".

Ukrainian Forces Fight Inside Russia For Second Day (Updated)

 

If they blow up the gas transit station, then that certainly hurts Russia economically. And if they damage the highway, that interrupts a major supply line. Frankly, it appears to be an act of top-secret and dangerous sabotage because they did not tell the U.S. Russia could have easily wiped out the two battalions if they found out about it, and they have enough spies and hackers (e-mail, etc.) to bumble into this sort of info.

Your defense of Russia as they are being humiliated appears to be an act of desperation.

 

I, too, am curious about why they did not tell us. My gut reaction is that they did not want Jake Sullivan to know, because he might have sabotaged the move by leaking it. And to be clear I mean leaking it to get Ukraine not to do it, not implying that he would want to see Ukraine disastrously defeated in the attempt. From Ukraine’s perspective, Sullivan’s strategy (if you can call it that) has burned Ukrainian opportunities on a couple of occasions.

 

You’re going all in on a 100 square mile occupation that has lasted all of 3 days, aren’t you?

 

Russian stuff blowing up: Ukraine moves deeper into Kursk, takes hundreds of prisoners

Just interesting tidbits

 

Not sure how you got that impression. I have been very reserved in my judgment. I’m not even sure it is 100 square miles or that it is an occupation. If I had to bet right now, I would call it a raid, but I don’t just don’t know enough yet.

 

Interesting indeed. For the moment, there’s lot in there the Ukrainians would have a hard time proving and the Russians would have a hard time disproving. The one thing that would be hard for Russia to call a bunch of lies are prisoners. Ukraine needs to grab as many of them as possible — preferably military, but Russia has established that civilians are fair game as hostages — and register them appropriately. Interviews are also fair game.

 

Video of three dozen Russians surrendering to Ukraine. Another year or two, we might be seeing Russians surrendering by the hundreds or the thousands. A massive humiliation for Putin AND his ego.

Dozens of Russian Soldiers Surrender to Invading Ukrainian Forces

 

Don't look now, but Ukraine is starting to win the drone war. It is able to defeat Russia's expensive drones with much cheaper drones. Right now, Russia's recon drones are losing the battle to cheap Ukrainian drones, and Russia is getting limited battlefield intelligence.

Ukraine's using its cheap drones to blind the eyes in the sky guiding Russia's behind-the-lines strikes

 

Interesting thread.

 

That has to be beyond weird for Russian civilians to see foreign troops running around on Russian territory.

Imagine foreign troops making an incursion onto us territory.