War in Ukraine

One prominant Ukranian Podcaster suggests, if reinforced, this action, could swing back toward Karkieve combined with a renewed Ukranian push from Karkieve, making for a rather interesting scenario.

Also the ski conscripts fighting Ukranians in this Ukrainian offensive are giving up in droves.

He also suggests this may be more than a probe or raid. This push has essentially captured suja, the two main ski defensive lines in the area have been pierced. We are talking two full Ukranian brigade,s 1,000 men with air support and armor, according to this source.

It certainly is an interesting development.
Skis lost air assets as well. A helicopter kill is confirmed.

 

Fascinating indeed. I will try to find out what I can.

 

I edited my post, according to this source, 2 full Ukranian brigades, 1,000 men, supported by air assets and armor.

 

It would be interesting if Ukraine were to bring in heavy equipment, dig up the road for some distance, and then put in mines to prevent it from being re-built or easily bypassed.

 

So, a country they were supposed to overrun in weeks has held them off for years and is now making incursions into the motherland?

Could Russia be any more incompetent? This is awesome.

 

Nah, nah, nah, man. This is all a part of Putin’s plan. He sinisterly lured Ukraine into this attack in order to destroy two of their best maneuver brigades. And if he doesn’t, that was part of his plan, too. Trick Ukraine into laying waste to parts of southern Russia in order to galvanize the people to victory!

I’ll give this to Putin. I never believed any of his hogwash about Ukraine being a threat to Russia, but now Putin has gone and proven it.

 

Actually, your last point is sure to be a Russian talking point soon

 

I believe it, and I’ll laugh when it is. It’s like Hitler screeching in late 1944, “I told you the Americans, British, and Soviets were coming for us! I told you back in 1939! And — look! — here they have invaded the Fatherland!”

 

Soon to be echoed by the gop.

 

I wonder if this was a good strategic move given Ukraine’s lack of depth in infantry overall.

 

I accept, not knowing Ukraine’s true order of battle, that is possible. It is also possible, for all I know, that they were holding a mechanized striking force in reserve for a moment when Russia appeared to culminate in its offensive. Lots of historical precedent for that. First example that comes to mind is Sharon’s counteroffensive against Egypt in 1973. It slipped right through a lightly defended gap, crossed the Suez, and cut off an entire Egyptian field army in the Sinai.

 

I’m in a room full of Republicans right now, and we think it’s great.

 

That said you know damn well there is a subset in the gop that carries water for putin.

 

Yes, I agree. A subset who sees short-term political gain in the Democrats “losing” in Ukraine, not understanding (more accurately, refusing to understand) that the whole country loses if Russia is gifted a strategic victory, not just the Democrats.

 

High risk/High reward. No longer satisfied to fight the defensive war, they risk 2 brigrades of experienced troops (I"ve read). Either they see an opportunity to make a positive change to the war or..... Ukraine seeks to grab as much land as they can as leverage during a negotiated settlement or they have made some decision about the sustainability of what they have been doing. idk.

 

waited on the f-16's to be able to neutralize any air support that Russia brought to the battle? Really hope this is a end around to encircle the russian advance on Kharkiv. From everything I have read, it seems that being encircled is the greatest fear of Russian troops. If they can encircle them, I suspect they surrender in droves and all that ground comes back in a big chunk

 

I just really don't see Ukraine being able to hold this Russian ground for very long and if they indeed committed two battalions to this and lose it in a matter of days, what did it accomplish other than depleting Ukrainian forces further? As you have noted many times, the Russians hold a distinct advantage in manpower, so one side can afford to take some losses defending the Kursk region. Frankly, it appears to be an act of desperation as it is being reported Ukraine did this without notifying the Pentagon.

 

Verevka doping

"Rope a dope"
google translate - Google Search

 

The report is two brigades, not two battalions. Huge difference. And we do not really know how big the Ukrainian force actually is in any case, since they were able to hide their preparations from everyone. Russia does have a manpower advantage for the kind of war they are (or were) fighting, which is linear, positional warfare, characterized by saturating ground with sequential arms and taking small bites of land. Where they have repeatedly failed is in combined-arms maneuver warfare characterized by tempo and coordination between armed services. To respond to an incursion like this (and, again, we are all guessing how big, how organized, and what its intent is), Russia will have to mass and maneuver quickly, which so far has resulted in devastating losses for them. But as I said earlier the real effect of this move by Ukraine might be psychological. Two weeks ago, the most pro-Ukrainian among us would have laughed if anyone suggested that they could secretly build up a two-brigade striking force and penetrate deep into Russia without Russia (or the West) detecting it. I would have laughed my ass off. And yet here we are, surprised by Ukraine again.

 

Live Updates: Ukraine advances deeper into Kursk, Russia

This really is amazing that Russia wasn't prepared for something like this. With their manpower advantages you would think it would be easy to maintain the border. It appears they weren't prepared AT ALL.

Ukraine Invasion Day 897: Kursk region incursion - some good maps in this post.