War in Ukraine

Close, as in rhymes with.

 

Putin is now begging for a cease-fire. Apparently, he realizes that U.S. aid is starting to reach the battlefield, and Europe is starting to take the situation seriously, and things are going badly for him. In spite of propaganda to the contrary, Russians are getting sick of the war and the people who started it. Putin is thinking that he cannot achieve a breakout against a well-supplied enemy without another round of conscriptions, and that might be more than the people can tolerate.

Putin wants ceasefire in Ukraine, Kremlin sources say

 

And he can have it. He just can’t have it and any land he’s stolen since 2014.

 

That’s quite an accomplishment, hitting a supermarket. I wonder if we could tell, based on a 10-mile radius (being a little generous), what the actual target was for Russia’s “precision-guided” munition.

 

even Orban is recognizing the fact that Russia can't win this war and if Russia can't defeat Ukraine, it has no chance against NATO

Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán Sends Stark Warning to Putin Over Ukraine War (msn.com)

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has issued a stark warning to his ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, casting doubt on Russia’s prospects of defeating Ukraine and cautioning against the idea that Russia could take on NATO countries. This comes amid Hungary’s attempt to redefine its NATO membership to avoid participation in missions beyond the alliance’s borders.

Orbán’s comments surfaced during a radio interview, where he openly questioned Russia’s capability to prevail in the ongoing conflict. “If the Russians were strong enough to defeat the Ukrainians in one go, they would have been defeated, but that’s not what we’re seeing.”

His remarks have resonated across NATO, an alliance that stands in firm support of Ukraine. The Hungarian Prime Minister also dismissed fears of Russia turning its military might towards NATO, stating, “NATO’s strength is not comparable to Ukraine’s. A hundredfold, maybe a thousandfold, so I don’t think it’s logical to assume that Russia, who can’t even deal with Ukraine, will suddenly come and catch the whole Western world.”

 

Seems a little low …

 

Patriot would not be an appropriate countermeasure for glide bombs, but I wonder if C-RAM would be a lower-cost alternative. Those things can easily take out rockets, mortars, and artillery that fly a great deal faster than a glide bomb. You could not practically cover the entire front with those systems, but I'll bet you could adequately protect force at designated strong points.

But do you think they meant to hit a supermarket? That has wide miss written all over it. Zero military value.

 

Putin's begging for a ceasefire. Putin wants to conquer Eastern Europe. Good god, pick a position and stick with it for a few days.

 

Ah. Got it. I think the value of the glide bomb is the standoff it gets from the target. Those planes are probably flying outside of Patriot range or at least trying to.

 

Putin’s want to seems to have far exceeded his can.
Slava Ukraini

 

Good grief, Mother Tucker. You do know that both of those things could be true, don't you? He's not trying to surrender. He wants hostilities to stop for one of two reasons (1. to re-group and try again, or 2. to consolidate his gains and claim a victory for Mother Russia).

 

Putin, and his economy, are choking ont he glut of gas, and lack of income from it, that he thought was his magic bullet to keep the EU in line

2 Yale researchers are pulling back the curtain on Russia's sanctions-stricken economy — and it's landed them on a list of Putin's enemies (msn.com)

The nation is in such dire straits that citizens could even start turning on Putin later this year, they predicted, assuming the West continues to supply military and financial aid to Ukraine.

"We can list for you what Putin has concealed – suddenly – the past three years. If his economy was performing at the level he claims, he'd provide the data ad not hide those facts," Sonnenfeld told Business Insider in an interview. "Putin survives only by cannibalizing Russian businesses – throwing the living room furniture into the furnace to keep the fire burning."
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Activity in Russia's car sector is down around 95%-99%, Sonnenfeld and Tian estimate, and activity in most industries is down at least 60%, they said, despite Putin frequently brushing off the impact of sanctions. The nation, meanwhile, is still suffering from huge capital losses from when it first invaded Ukraine. Russia lost 1 million citizens, 15% of its millionaires, as well as $19 billion in foreign direct investment in 2022 alone, making its future growth prospects dismal, the researchers say.
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"Putin has no grand strategy other than to hope Trump wins and cuts a favorable deal with Russia," Tian said. "Russia is in for a world of economic pain for a long time to come."

 

EU ready to slap sanctions on Russian LNG exports to tighten the screws a little more

EU finally ready to bring down Russia’s gas empire … sort of – POLITICO

For the first time since Moscow launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine more than two years ago, the EU is expected to aim its sanction bazooka at Russia’s lucrative gas sector. But the proposals on the table would only touch a fraction of the billions Moscow gets annually from liquified natural gas, leaving plenty for its war chest.

The European Commission is poised to release a proposed ban on EU ports reselling Moscow LNG as soon as Friday, according to three EU diplomats. The Commission will also ask for restrictions on three upcoming Russian LNG projects, they added. The measures will come as part of Brussels’ 14th sanctions package.
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The LNG sanctions are designed to stifle a lucrative business for Moscow that keeps its energy cargoes moving around the world. Yet as written in draft proposals — still subject to change — the penalties would only hit around a quarter of Russia’s €8 billion in LNG profits, according to experts and data analyzed by POLITICO. That comes amid repeated warnings that EU and Western efforts to choke off Moscow’s fossil fuel revenues have largely failed. While the EU has banned imports of Russian coal and seaborne crude oil, numerous loopholes and evasive tactics have kept money flowing to the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, the EU has made little progress in punishing Moscow’s LNG sector. Although the fuel made up just 5 percent of the EU’s gas consumption last year, it remains a cash cow that the Kremlin relies on to wage war. France, Spain and Belgium have been the biggest hubs for the supercooled gas, much of which is then exported to countries including Germany and Italy.

 

Regrouping doesn't accomplish much when NATO will be doing the same. Putin well knows this. NATO has more access to funding, so halting hostilities in hopes of "regrouping" to outgun NATO seems like a pretty silly suggestion. He can already claim victory for Russia. It's not like Russia are losing ground. And knowing Putin, he's likely putting this out there so he can point to it a year or two from now and say "see, I wanted to stop fighting, but they wouldn't stop so yea we had to over Kharkiv, Kherson and Odesa." He can do all that and still fashion himself as the "peacemaker."

Russia is toppling 2 or 3 villages a day, eyeing bigger gains with those moves. You might have something here if Russia were actually losing on the battlefield. But of course, you'll only believe what your puppet master allows to you believe.

 

Uh huh. Putin is signaling ceasefire and is ostensibly willing to cede Russian territory “annexed” two years ago to Ukraine. Nevertheless, Russia is inexorably winning with negligible casualties and near-zero domestic pressure to get out of this war, which is by no means disastrous. Yes, of course, that’s the lie we should all agree on.

 

“Putin is now begging for a ceasefire.”

And here we see the difference between the warring sides. The side that’s winning does not lust for endless killing, whereas the side that’s losing can’t die enough …