War in Ukraine

Are you Macroning?

 

While I am an enthusiastic supporter of your posts, especially on Ukraine, I take the link with a grain of salt.

Russia's economy has been NOWHERE near as debilitated from Western sanctions as we have been led to believe.
(Well- IMO). I have read numerous Western "articles" about the supposed "imminent collapse" of the Russian economy.
The reality is the Russians have torqued up the pressure on Ukraine, with no apparant let up.

And following typical Russian (conflict models) Ukraine, with the help of Western weapons, checked, if not embarrassed Russias military.
True to form, the Kremlin is more than happy to waste an ocean of Russian blood to obtain strategic objectives. Combine that with a slow but steady
acclimation to the realities of the front, and increase in military capability via home production or sources abroad, and Russia is now back on the offensive.

Uftaipan may want to weigh in, but Russia brings unbelievable amounts of artillery to bear, from what I am hearing, they may have 5 - 1 or 10 - 1 (maybe even greater) capacity to "outgun" Ukraine, especially "shell to shell". The Russians basicly flatten everything with artillery.

Hopefully NATO will up the ante, especially in artillery shell production, to help Ukraine, going forward. Hopefully the F-16's will have some impact when they are deployed.

 

I certainly agree with Macron in terms of changing the tone of our response to Russia, yes. We need to start signaling our willingness to become increasingly involved if Russia does not stop and return to its borders. Allowing Russia even a face-saving strategic victory, where they get to keep even a part of Ukraine, will encourage every other authoritarian power to push its borders to what it views as the high-water mark of its long-dead empire.

 

Or, encourage the same dictator? Even now Moldova is bracing for more Russian interference in their country.

 

At one time I thought that was a completely foolish view, certain to risk unacceptable escalation, and unnecessary, as the continual provision of aid would cause Russia to give up the cause.

A lot has changed since those original assumptions. The price Russia is willing to pay, their ability to not be crippled by sanctions, among other things. The fact that so many intelligent allies seem to believe that it will not lead to unacceptable escalation.

I've been rethinking it but I'm not there yet

 

seems like China didn't get the message so now specific banks are being targeted.

these things like this wouldn't be happening under a djt potus

U.S. Takes Aim at Chinese Banks Aiding Russia War Effort (msn.com)

The U.S. is drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system, arming Washington’s top envoy with diplomatic leverage that officials hope will stop Beijing’s commercial support of Russia’s military production, according to people familiar with the matter.

But as Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Beijing on Tuesday, the question is whether even the threat of the U.S. using one of its most potent tools of financial coercion can put a dent in complex and burgeoning trade between Beijing and Moscow that has allowed the Kremlin to rebuild a military badly mauled by more than two years of fighting in Ukraine.

China has heeded Western warnings not to send arms to Russia since the beginning of the war, but since Blinken’s trip to Beijing last year, China’s exports of commercial goods that also have military uses have surged. With China now the primary supplier of circuitry, aircraft parts, machines and machine tools, U.S. officials say Beijing’s aid has allowed Moscow to rebuild its military industrial capacity.

 

War is a grave matter, particularly between nuclear-armed foes. It is wise and correct that you treat it gravely. As you say, none of us are there yet. I’m merely advocating that we start signaling will to intervene at this point. We have done too much to assure Russia that we would not.

 

sanctions with real bite have only recently been put in place. west left too many loopholes and looked away too often out of fear of lack of energy on the world market.

the original and even some of the subsequent sanctions have been good on paper, not so much in the field. Mush like the original iranian sanctions. It isn't until the loopholes are closed and actors identified and targeted to close the loopholes that the sanctions start to have bite. Refusing to insure ports and ships from the ghost fleet and targeting banks in India and China are recent activity that will strangle the flow of commerce that has been keeping Russia afloat. Funny how often shipping insurance is the real hammer

in addition, Ukraine has just started targeting refineries. refineries built with western gear and lacking replacement parts when damaged, so it takes much longer to repair. that cumulative loss of capacity will continue to grow and cut exports. Same for actual oil field production. If it is not being maintained and expanded, it decreases naturally over time as wells deplete and equipment degrades. Loss of technical expertise, new investment capital, and western parts and supplies will take a toll over time.

 

What’s done is done but my problem is if we’re going to take that stance now why not from the beginning? Doing it now has the appearance of letting the bully play in the sandbox with relative impunity for a while and then getting a slap on the wrist.

 

It will indeed, but I don’t think Ukraine has the time it would take. Russia clearly believes it can conquer Ukraine (one way or another) and then negotiate with the West to ease them up once Russian conquest is an established fact. In my opinion, the only thing that will work is if Russia believes the liberal democracies are not going to allow a Russian victory, no matter what. Right now, Russia does not believe that.

 

I’ve been advocating it since the beginning. Go look at my posts (admittedly more emotional in those days) from February and March 2021. I understand trying the sanctions, trying the international shaming, and trying material aid first. No one wants this war except Russia. I would have shown more resolve a long time ago, but as you say what’s done is done.

 

Yay! The last time we picked a fight with China, they unleashed covid 19, and issued a memo parroted by our bought n paid fo ho's, that this thing, easily traceable to Wuhan bio-weapons lab, was actually the result of a magic bat shitting on a wet market. Conveniently also located in Wuhan. Parrotted and paraded like it was Gospel troof from on high...

Can't wait to hear the next load of shit our bought n said for ho's gonna tell us this go around...

...but I'm sure it will be... ...entertaining. Certainly not boring.

 

I am certainly not full Macron yet - NATO troops on the ground. I am also not at a no fly zone, as others have suggested, although Iran's attack on Israel gave me pause on that one (more below).

But there is the step of authorizing Ukraine to use US supplied weapons to strike facilities inside Russia. I am just about there. They would have to be facilities less likely to cause human casualties.

As for no-fly zones, the fact that Russia uses so many stand off munitions that could be intercepted without shooting down a Russian aircraft piloted by a Russian make me a bit more open to the possibility. Still fraught with a lot of dangerous permutations. Nothing is ever as clear as it is in theory.

Just thinking out loud.

 

Yea, there was the gas price loophole. And that is still politically potent stateside, though Europe has transitioned a lot of heating. Plus we're in Spring.

As I'm sure you know, a lot of Allied strategic bombing in WWII that targeted German industry seemed to have limited effect. Late, they started targeting refineries. BIG effect. The Lutwaffe especially was suddenly sparse.

 

Important distinction: Macron has not put troops in Ukraine or decided to. He has simply signaled that he is losing patience with Russia. And that is where I am.

 

This is what I was referring to:

PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said his refusal to rule out the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine was intentional, despite the uproar it has provoked.

Macron swept aside the barrage of criticism he has faced in France and on the international stage and insisted his statements on Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression against Ukraine were carefully thought out.
Macron stands by remarks about sending troops to Ukraine – POLITICO

 

Yes, and I agree with all of that. Refusing to rule out intervention (even if we privately had decided against it) instead of assuring Russia that we would not is precisely what we should have done from the beginning.

 

I am getting sold. I was far away from that a year ago

 

Having killed off most of the Ukrainians, the US establishment is clamoring for Europeans to kill themselves …