War in Ukraine

Yes invading Taiwan makes no sense from my perspective but my perspective isn’t Xi’s. His staying in power may be dependent on the invasion. If their economy crashes as hard as I think it’s going to. This topic might be better in its own thread.

 

Body blows working. Russian artillery being removed

MSN

Russian troops are unable to return fire against Ukrainian forces in a critical area along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border as they seek to push back against Kyiv's counteroffensive, according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, wrote in its latest update on Friday that Russian Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky has warned about Russia's lack of "counter-battery capabilities" as his troops work to defend areas near Novomaiorske, a small village in southeastern Ukraine's Donetsk region

 

The man who predicted the war forecasts the end …

It is now clear that Ukraine’s eagerly anticipated counteroffensive has been a colossal failure.[1] After three months, the Ukrainian army has made little progress pushing back the Russians. Indeed, it has yet to get beyond the so-called “grey zone,” the heavily contested strip of land that lies in front of the first main line of Russian defenses. The New York Times reports that “In the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry Ukraine sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to U.S. and European officials. The toll included some of the formidable Western fighting machines — tanks and armored personnel carriers — that the Ukrainians were counting on to beat back the Russians.”[2] According to virtually all accounts of the fighting, Ukrainian troops have suffered enormous casualties.[3] All nine of the vaunted brigades that NATO armed and trained for the counteroffensive have been badly chewed up on the battlefield.

Bound to Lose

 

How bad is it for Ukraine ?


The journalist further asks, with this situation on the front and the growing losses, are there still people willing to fight? The volunteer replies:

“There are no willing ones. They are looking for them on the streets. In Lviv there are “round-ups”, people are taken from construction sites, from bars. Recently I witnessed such a situation at the bus station in Lvov. Five policemen stood and checked everyone who wanted to leave Lvov.

Eight people were detained in this way. Many reasons for the current situation with mobilization originate in Bakhmut. It was such a plum, such a meat grinder that there was no one left to fight”.

How Bad Is It for Ukraine? - A Son of the New American Revolution

 

Deep dive on true Russian military strength from an American OSINT. Gist: in eighteen months the Russian military has grown from slightly readier than its American counterpart to formidable force …

Claims the Russians had a "million-man army" prewar are simply false - that was the total number of people in the entire Russian Armed Forces. The Russian "Army" (between the Army proper, the Naval Infantry, and the VDV) was only some 350,000 personnel, of whom approximately 100,000 were conscripts. This manning level supported some 183 combined-arms battalion task forces under the now-deprecated Battalion Tactical Group organizational scheme. In real terms this meant that for every 1900 soldiers in the overall force the Russians would get one maneuver battalion with appropriate supporting arms.

https://x.com/armchairw/status/1698161663147663809?s=61

 

Yes, but usually they like to play the bully and beat up some smaller weaker nation, and not take on the biggest, baddest military on the planet. As thrilling as the prospect of a military victory might be, a humiliating loss would be far worse than not starting the fight. I still think that China waits until an uncommitted president says that defending Taiwan is optional, or diverts its need for warfare to target another country, like the Philippines, Vietnam, or India.

 

If I was China I might take Siberia. That is where the oil is. Russia can’t beat Ukraine China would take Siberia easily.

 

That is not what they’re waiting for. No specifics, but they have a deliberate plan to win regardless of whether the U.S. decides to intervene or not. They are simply not there yet, and Russia’s debacle in Ukraine has set back China’s timeline a little.

China is not terribly concerned with the other countries you mentioned. They are concerned with taking what they believe is theirs (even though, Taiwan has never belonged to the PRC and belonged to Imperial China, about 150 years ago, for less time than it has presently been independent). That includes Taiwan, some South China Sea islands (real and imagined), and parts of — wait for it! — Eastern Russia. For the other countries (Japan, Korea, Vietnam, etc), China would be perfectly satisfied with having them as vassal states with unequal trade relationships.

 

Russian police …

https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1698303657102446652?s=61

 

Russians get serious about protecting aircraft from Ukrainian drones. Seriously desperate, that is. They have started covering the tops of their planes (fuselage and wings) with car tires to protect them from drone attacks. Not sure how useful it is to have tires on top of a plane when it is time to start a bombing mission . . .

Personally, I'm not sure what's more sad and pathetic, an alleged superpower having turboprop strategic bombers, or protecting said bombers with car tires on top of them.

Russian forces are using car tires to try and protect Tu-95 bombers

 

Russia has lost a total of 800-900,000 people to emigration, and this, along with sanctions, has been devastating for their economy. About 80% of those leaving have a college degree, and 86% are under the age of 45. As a result, Russia's GDP is expected to fall behind Indonesia by 2026. Russian living standards are expected to fall to the level of former Soviet states.

A total of 42% of industrial firms were unable to find employees in July, up from 35% in April. About 100k I.T. workers left the country.

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's

 

Fact is #1 will never happen ahead of time or in a strategic matter. I think we know that. We've been living on borrowed time ever since we sent a bulk of our manufacturing overseas. What we'd have to do in terms of wartime production, China and Russia, but especially China is and has already been doing for decades. The United States is a debtor nation. It hasn't always been like that.

 

Ukraine liquidating itself …

https://x.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1698454623118385178?s=61

 

I guess Putin was tired of his planes getting blown up.

 

#2 won’t happen either. I more or less said that.

 

We shouldn't shrink back, but we shouldn't begin any new adventures either (ie Ukraine). The optimal scenario is where you bring the peace and use the time that buys you to make fundamental change at home. I am 100% convinced that is needed if a scenario with China and Russia plays out the way some of you have talked about. Which takes us back to Macgregor's comments about our surge cape. We don't exactly have a "World War II generation", do we? Could you imagine this country uniting in the way it did after Pearl Harbor to go all in? I'm having trouble seeing it, myself.

 

MacGregor is a clown. I told you many, not even all of the ways, he is either grossly misinformed or deliberately disinforming you. You sure you want to keep citing him? Your choice, of course.

 

Without evidence.

I don't need evidence Russia has ready reserves that are not currently engaged in Ukraine. No country would prosecute a war any differently. You would actually need to prove that Russia is doing something with Ukraine that no other world empire has done in the past 120 years. That is throw all of their combat ready troops to the front, in an encroachment onto foreign borders, no less. Name one country that has done this. In under a year into the war, no less. It's comedic that you actually believe it.