War in Ukraine

1000

 

Relaying to Putin …

 

Updated thoughts on the conflict:

IMO,
Ukranian and NATO hopes for a lightning offensive similar
to what happened in fall/winter 22 in the northern region and to a lesser extent in Kherson / south region have obviously failed to materialize.

While Russian incompetence was revealed in spades at that time,
one cannot expect them to be bumbling fools forever. It's obvious
they reassessed the situation and are performing more competently in the field. I don't think anyone can argue against that point to forcefully.

I believe that Ukraine, while certainly not perfect, has done a remarkable job in surviving and maintaining a rather cohesive front.

Perhaps Uftaipan can weigh in but the lack of air support and dominance in the skies may be a revealing "tell", that without air superiority it's damn hard to make progress against layered defensive lines with TONS of artillary, and hundreds of thousands of ski "blood bags".

Now what? Stalemate? War of Attrition? Perhaps the arrival of F-16's and Abram's may turn the tide although I suspect something on the political side may be the decider.

Russia is trying to assasinate Zelensky. That would be very bad news if they succeed.

Russia is expending much blood and treasure, thats for sure.

Fot those that study warfare, the British / Boer war in the last 1-1/2 years of that conflict is an interesting study. The Boer's, instead of trying to meet the British in large scale, head on battle, where they were always out-numbered, changed tactics and developed rather large scale "hit and run" tactics on supply depots, infrastructure and on smaller British units or columns.

Of course the Boer's did lose, although initially they were VERY successful with the revised tactic.

Of course if NATO commits to supplying combat personnel that would be a game changer (IMO).

Hoping NATO and the US stays committed. Could be a long haul.

 

I suffered through a few paragraphs before you lost me at “Russia is trying to assassinate Zelensky”, as if they couldn’t have pulled it off if it wanted to and as it would have profited it to have done so.

 

Agree. Too many willing actors inside Ukraine’s borders and outside as well. As Ted Dibiase used to say: “every man has a price.”

Putin knows Zelenskyy is just the front man and that the security threat won’t go away by assassinating him. It would turn Zelenskyy into an all-time martyr. Notwithstanding, it would make it harder for certain trading partners to continue to justify their ongoing trade with Russia. Too much risk, too little reward from Russia’s POV. But it fits the “Putin is the new Hitler” narrative, so it gets repeated as though it’s actually plausible.

 

^ Sorry! Fat fingers. Meant thumbs UP.

 

But that push to Kharkiv is real, bruh.

 

Basically what this is all about …

 

Could this be the face of terrorism ?

 

Good grief! You even troll your allies?

 

Just because he can state the painfully obvious does not mean he is incapable of advanced calculus.

 

Russia is fighting a defensive war right now, not an offensive one. Defense in warfare is much easier than offense. I don't think this means that Russia has suddenly become more competent. Certainly the stories that Russia is losing as many troops as Ukraine while fighting a defensive battle indicates some level of incompetence remains. Ukraine (and the weather, and the slow supply of weapons) allowed Russia to build defenses for several months. We should expect the demolition of those defenses to take some multiple of how long it took to assemble the defenses (soldiers are shooting at the people trying to demolish the defenses, which was not necessarily the case when building them, plus it is much easier to lay mines than it is to find and destroy them).

The F-16's are more likely to do something interesting before the Abrams do much of anything. The Abrams will be of limited effect before Ukraine breaks through the Russian defenses. It all depends on how effective the F-16's are at avoiding or destroying the SAM sites. I would like to see Ukraine go after Russian ships in the Black Sea, and eliminate all bridges to Crimea for good. That would cause Russia to send up their aircraft against the F-16's, and hopefully the Ukrainians will be able to eliminate more Russian planes than they lose.

Little chance of NATO sending people in, unless Putin does something stupid. Being offended enough to send in semi-obsolete weapons systems to Ukraine, and being offended enough to send in troops are two completely different levels of commitment.

 

Russia doing simple math right now: subtracting Ukraine and dividing the “International Rules Based Order.”

 

Russia’s vaunted T-14 super tank a Total bust and is yanked from theatre.

Putin Is Embarrassed: Russia Withdraws its 'Best' T-14 Armata Tank From Ukraine

The quick withdrawal of the Armata from Ukraine suggests that Russian forces were not pleased with the tank’s performance. Ukraine will soon deploy American-made M1A1 Abrams in addition to British Challengers and German Leopard 2s as part of its counter-offensive, which should worry Russia.

 

Russia may be in a lot more trouble than they can handle. Six western nations, including the U.S., Britain, France, and Japan, are demanding that Russia give back the land it took from neighbor Georgia during Putin's 2008 invasion there. If Georgia decides to open a can of whoop-ass on Russia and take the land back, could Russia stop them? How long before the west started providing advanced weapons to Georgia? Can Putin afford to fight two wars at the same time with his finances rapidly disappearing?

6 Western nations demand Russia return two regions it took from neighboring Georgia 15 years ago

 

Another devastating explosion rocks Moscow as huge inferno erupts at warehouse (msn.com)

On Thursday evening, yet another explosion rocked Russia as a huge fire broke out in the western industrial zone of Odintsovo.

While the cause of the fire is still unknown, it comes after multiple drone strikes targeted the Moscow Oblast in recent weeks.
................
The press service of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations for the Moscow Region added: "In Odintsovo on Zelenaya Street, 30a, a warehouse caught fire on an area of 2,000 square meters.

"There were no reports of casualties." State media outlet TASS confirmed the news, noting that Odintsovo is to the west of Moscow between Vladimir Putin's official residence and the Vnukovo airport.

 

Taken in the scheme of government expenditures, this is some money well spent.