Wall Street banks brace for downward revision of up to 1M fewer jobs — fueling worries the Fed faile

Certainly worthy of discussion. Maybe not worthy of hyperbole.

 

@flgator2 , feels good when they sign up just for you, doesn't it??

 

You seem dismissive though.
It’s a giant revision man.
You know it but can’t see straight.

 

Nobody is denying it is a big revision. It is a historically big revision. We will have the final answer in Feb 2025 (as it always takes 11 months to get all the necessary data).

Leaving politics out of this, why do you think the stock market didn’t have a massive sell off based on today’s preliminary revision?

 

Stock market isn’t always reacting in real time is it?

 

The stock market absolutely reacts in real time to labor reports / rate changes / etc.

 

I apologize if this is redundant since I haven't read every post in this thread.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/21/nx-s1-5084178/us-fewer-jobs-biden-initially-reported
By the way the downward revision also indicates that the Fed may be more likely to lower interest rates in September and may also lower the Fed funds rate more than anticipated. The original consensus projection for a rate cut was 0.25%, it now may be 1/2 a percent.

 

The positive news of an increased probability of a rate cut including the possibility of a greater than anticipated rate cut is apparently offsetting the negative news of fewer jobs. The markets love lower interest rates.

 

Of course it's a big revision. But I thought my point was quite clear - this stuff is often followed by a partisan claim that original numbers were fake, that we're really in a recession, etc. As we have on this thread.

 

There was a pretty large revision the other way in 2022

 

I should rephrase, when was the last time as many as 818,000 jobs were either overstated or understated?

 

Are you talking about BLS revisions, or our resident Republicans expressing distrust in the employment numbers?

Because if you're implying the latter, I have to disagree. They completely trust the BLS figures in years with a Republican president.

 

Which seems to add fuel to the "The Fed is too late and heavy-handed with monetary policy decisions" fire. It's easy to Monday-morning QB their decisions, but it's looking more and more like the should have already done their first 25 bps cut.

 

15 years ago.

 

Another one hand typing post from one of the Trump SFGs.

 

This ^

25 basis point cut for sure, maybe 50 is more on the table if it’s true.

Powell might not want to do that much as it could spook the market however.
I’ll be waiting with cash if it happens.

 

Oh good, you're truly clueless. It all adds up now.

 

Also, gold is hitting new highs

 

MABLA

Make American Bread Lines Again