Wall Street banks brace for downward revision of up to 1M fewer jobs — fueling worries the Fed faile

My shocked face:
..
^
--

 

Disagree. Fed has a variety of information and sources to adjust for job market. They do not only rely upon the BLS information.

US gig economy is not counted in BLS numbers. Establishment survey undercounts gig workers.

BLS is independent statistician and uses surveys. Employer survey responses trickle in and cause the stats to shift. Read more about their process for revisions:

“Differences between the initial and revised estimates generally indicate that the employment change that occurred at the businesses that had not initially reported was different than the change that occurred at the businesses that had initially reported. For example, if less employment growth occurred among those who had not reported at the time of the first estimate, the initial estimate would be revised down. If more growth occurred among the late responders, the initial estimate would be revised up. The estimation process is more complicated than this simple explanation, however; the key thing for users to remember is that the revised estimates represent a more complete and therefore more accurate picture of developments in the job market.”

Why are there revisions to the jobs numbers?

 

This would be a huge number and if it comes to fruition, I'm not sure that it means the Fed should have lowered rates sooner, but it is definitely significant news.

 

Right now, market futures are up for today. Let's see what happens if the number changes.

 

Whatever the revised numbers are IF there is a strong revision down wouldn’t that make an interest rate reduction in September MORE likely?

Stock market will spike up.
Harris will claim her “take” on the economy is already producing benefits- and then hide for 50 more days hoping Trump shoves his foot directly into his mouth.

 

Agree with you on this. The OP is cherry picking bad news.

From the Bloomberg article referenced in the OP (not the NY Post one linked in the OP)… “Ronnie Walker at Goldman Sachs says the QCEW figures are likely to overstate the moderation because they will strip out up to 500,000 unauthorized immigrants that were included in the initial estimate.”

What that means in English is 500,000 jobs literally “disappear” from the quarterly revision versus the monthly estimate due solely to methodology not because there are open positions at Companies. That is because the quarterly revision looks at unemployment insurance records. Illegals don’t get unemployment insurance because they are illegal, so they don’t count. So this entire thread should be about “they took RRRR jobs!!!”

Why is the market not responding to Goldman’s new thoughts on the revised employment numbers? Because the bigger news is Goldman dropped their odds of a recession to 20% yesterday and stated that the markets should hit new highs in the next 4 weeks.

It will be interesting to see if GS accurately predicted what is going to occur, but they released a ton of predictions yesterday.

If the board wants to put a Trump v. Biden spin on this, what is going to happen if Trump wins and deports those 500,000 cheap laborers? Inflation up, economy down.

 

Good analysis. I appreciate reading informed views.

 

Payrolls were over-estimated by 68,000 each month.
Manufacturing jobs are now revised down by 115,000.
Construction jobs are now revised down by 45,000.
Verifying the BLS inflated the monthly job estimates.
Largest revision to job estimates in 15 years.

 

Does it matter more if these are just clerical error... or if this number is about actual jos lost? Are you sure it is, or is NOT one or the other?

 

No wonder, 59% of Americans feel like we're in a recession... and rightly so.

 

You missed the most important word. “Wrongly” believe we are in a recession.

59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession, report finds

 

Lol... not with the new data that came out. And yes, I read that article and PURPOSEFULLY used the word "rightfully" to emphasize my disagreement to that article.

 

It is always funny when right-wing media finds a new, relatively obscure statistic that nobody outside of a hardcore economic analyst understands and then uses that to convince them that the world is coming apart at the seams, so buy gold coins and seeds.

 

I mean, you gotta be kidding. If it gets published that they had to delete 500,000 jobs because they were taken by illegals, that's not going to help Camela - at all. Trump will be all over that.

And your last part only flies during a stimulus fueled job market rally, but what happens when the employment picture turns south (which it already has to some extent)? All of the sudden you have natives looking for jobs that are being held by illegals. That's not good and inflation will be the least of the concerns at that point. It'll be a lot easier for companies to stiff undocumented workers as well, because after all, they're here illegally. So there goes that honeymoon.

The "illegals is good for inflation and job market" argument only works during boom times. News flash: booms don't last forever.

 

Of course they do. They release a ton of statistics. Some are well-known, like their employment figures and CPI. Many are quite obscure, like this one. Or are you going to claim that you regularly look up QCEW and know much about how the data is collected?

 

As a reminder, we are currently at full employment.

 

It's my fault. I've had to overstaff this year to cover for some dead wood employees that frequently call out or simply don't show up for work. I still only have 23 full time spots but have to retain 26 in order to cover for absences.