Before the presidential election, many Democrats were puzzled by the seeming disconnect between “economic reality” as reflected in various government statistics and the public’s perceptions of the economy on the ground. Many in Washington bristled at the public’s failure to register how strong the economy really was. They charged that right-wing echo chambers were conning voters into believing entirely preposterous narratives about America’s decline. What they rarely considered was whether something else might be responsible for the disconnect — whether, for instance, government statistics were fundamentally flawed. What if the numbers supporting the case for broad-based prosperity were themselves misrepresentations? What if, in fact, darker assessments of the economy were more authentically tethered to reality? On some level, I relate to the underlying frustrations. Having served as comptroller of the currency during the 1990s, I‘ve spent substantial chunks of my career exploring the gaps between public perception and economic reality, particularly in the realm of finance. Many of the officials I’ve befriended and advised over the last quarter-century — members of the Federal Reserve, those running regulatory agencies, many leaders in Congress — have told me they consider it their responsibility to set public opinion aside and deal with the economy as it exists by the hard numbers. For them, government statistics are thought to be as reliable as solid facts. In recent years, however, as my focus has broadened beyond finance to the economy as a whole, the disconnect between “hard” government numbers and popular perception has spurred me to question that faith. I’ve had the benefit of living in two realms that seem rarely to intersect — one as a Washington insider, the other as an adviser to lenders and investors across the country. Toggling between the two has led me to be increasingly skeptical that the government’s measurements properly capture the realities defining unemployment, wage growth and the strength of the economy as a whole. Voters Were Right About the Economy. The Data Was Wrong. - POLITICO I find it fascinating how history consistently finds ways to humble those who are supposedly wise and knowledgeable. Very insightful article.
Sorry to burst your bubble. Jobs numbers aren’t just govt numbers, ADP separate provides private payroll data. So if govt numbers were out of whack or being fudged, ADP would show it. The inflation data on the other hand is debatable, a lot of people argue it doesn’t fully capture cost of living in it’s “basket of goods”. I think that criticism is valid, esp in times where RE prices surge or there is a possible bubble. Definitely a big divide between homeowners and non-homeowners. The govt publishes it’s methodology, so I don’t think it’s nefarious. But the official data doesn’t capture this divide well imo.
Biden administration overstated Q2 job growth by 1 million: Philadelphia Fed The Biden administration overstated the number of jobs created in the US during the second quarter by more than 1 million, according to a report issued by the Philadelphia Fed. The Philadelphia Fed report found that just 10,500 net new jobs were created between March and June. That finding is in stark contrast to numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which estimated that there were 1.12 million new jobs added between March and June of 2022.
I think that it is universally accepted that inflation numbers, the official ones, have been a joke for a very long time. I think most agree that the officially reported unemployment numbers are not an accurate reflection of reality either. I agree with most of what was in the story. That said, those same numbers were also equally misleading during the first Trump administration, Obama's terms, Bush, Clinton, etc.....none of this is really new. This lack of connection to reality was not the key factor during the last election.
Another lie created by the libbies. It is no wonder Trump and Musk are kicking ass. Dems are easy targets. Love it.
You guys are funny. Economic data is relative. The data says that the economy is cranking comparatively or was. No one ever said that a cranking US economy was particularly good for workers. All the benefit goes to the wealthy. Has for 50 years. But Trump will solve that by giving rich people tax cuts and raising prices with tariffs. Should work great.
There is one thing for sure, the Trump-Vance admin has been very clear that Americans should expect pain. No one really knows what that pain will look like and for how long. Economic indicators used by the Fed, Business sentiment, and consumer confidence is all that matters. Heading over to the price of eggs thread.
That report was discussed back then. The fed report was estimated based on the number of people seeking unemployment, not a survey of new hiring. And the BLS was backed by ADP. Q2 of 2002 ended up at 1,007,000 new hirings. Which is a far cry from 10,500, and closer to the 1,120,000 the BLS reported originally. As expected back then, the BLS won.
I did love the democrat campaign strategy of proclaiming that voters were too stupid to understand how great they had things! LMAO! The '24 dem campaign was a magnificent train wreck.
Lol... All you have to do is juxtapose who we voted for, then watch the Dems singing that retarded anti-musk song, and we see the true stupid people are. We were/are right, and we won for a good reason.
The irony of you calling people stupid using the vocabulary and sentence structure of an inebriated bar patron should not be lost on anyone, except maybe you, gaterzfan, and 92.
I recall Trump calling the government data bogus when he was running against Obama. Two months into his first term the same data from the same source (the Bureau of Labor Statistics) using the same methodology suddenly became credible because it made him look good. 19 times Trump called jobs numbers ‘fake’ before they made him look good
The numbers are the numbers. There are several unemployment numbers, including U3 and U6. One thing all of them agree on are trends. They go up and down in unison. And 4.2% is a very good number, but it was and is going in the wrong direction. 4.2% unemployment down from 4.8% six months ago feels a lot different than 4.2% unemployment up from 3.6% six months ago. Similar with inflation. Yes it's true that inflation for housing prices might hit people harder than other areas, but again, the numbers are the numbers. And they need to be consistent over the years to be able to provide a standard frame of reference. And 2.4% inflation? It's a very good number. Higher than 2.0% target, but not that far out. And if you asked someone from the 1980s, they would have been ecstatic with 2.4% inflation. Only one year in the 1980s was the inflation lower than 2.4%, with most years well above 3.5%. But after 12 years under Obama and Trump with inflation often lower than 1%, after the COVID inflation of 9%, an additional 2.4% felt really big. It's the frog in the boiling water analogy. Slowly turn up the heat, and the frog won't notice. Turn it up fast, and the frog will jump out quickly.
Biden killed 130 million chickens...that's why egg prices are high. Less chickens = higher egg prices. Simple math for a simple mind.
Cons are all ignoring the 600 lb skidmark in the room..... essentially all EOs affecting economics that the felon has dispensed will likely INCREASE inflation at this point. This is going to get uglier and uglier. Now the House plans to throw fuel on the fire and run up a massive spending campaign with DOGE failing to produce substantive cover for them. This sounds so familiar. LOL
Just a reminder, the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, also known as bird flu, is highly lethal to chickens, with mortality rates of up to 100%. Biden didn't kill them they were euthanized by the poultry farmers that owned them and if the chickens weren't euthanized they would have died anyway. Dead chickens whether they were euthanized before they would have died naturally or died as the result of bird flu and just as dead and do not lay eggs regardless of the cause of death. By the way, I assume that this is the source of your claim that Biden killed the chickens. White House Barbie Trump's semi-hot blonde purveyor of alternative facts.
