Vegas over under...just saw they have us at 5.5 wins.

What if Kentucky and MSU finish the regular season 10-2? Remember, it was only four seasons ago when Ole Miss finished a string of five non-winning seasons. In 2022, Ole Miss finished 8-5, not much different from Kentucky or Miss State in 2022. We can't assume they will be worse than us.

Then you do you have in mind to replace him? I can just see them lining up around The Swamp, begging to coach Da Mighty Gators. Particularly being the 6th one since 2010.

We fired Zook for "only" winning 62% of his games. We've been worse than that since 2010. Heck, Zook won 2/3 of his SEC games. Since 2010, we have a .524 percentage against SEC teams.

You assume we are in the 1990s or 2000s. We ain't. And with the Portal and NIL, I have no idea if we have the management and booster organizations to catch up. I love my alma mater, but as Colin Powell said, "Hope is neither a planning factor nor an expectation."

 

But firing a guy too early would be just as stupid

 

there’s definitely no absolutes when it comes to making these decisions. People act like they have some kind of crystal ball and they do not.

 

If we lose to bottom feeders or finish under 500 then yes we should move on.

I have ideas who I’d want next but that’s not even the point.

The point is that it couldn’t actually get worse. I definitely cannot guarantee success with a new coach but after 3 years of losing seasons I’d be able to guarantee who won’t have success.

But hopefully Billy wins 7+ next year and 9+ the following and makes all this moot

 

3 straight losing seasons isn’t early.

 

I’m thinking 500 would be pretty damn good. I’m glad you’re not making those decisions

 

it is early if he turns out to be a good coach and turns this thing around could definitely happen

 

Thats my hope, just pull us up a game or two in 24 and recruit like hell. All bets are off in 25. We have the QB (I believe) and CBN will have 4 recruiting classes
as well as the transfer portal under his belt. Gloves are coming off in 25 for me. 4th year - NO EXCUSES. Can't blame Mullen. If "talent" continues to be the issue, well thats on Nape, because by 25, the entire roster will be his kids, with the exception of 1 or 2 red-shirt types. (I think)

But every new season brings renewal and hope. It's pretty F'in sad UF is now in the "dregs" of SEC football. Time to climb out of that pit.
No other way to describe it.

 

The way I see it Wanne, is, we are Gators. Unless you know something I don't CBN will be the coach, at least at the start of the 24 season.
I will support him and UF. Just don't think tearing coach, the players or the program down is productive going into spring.

Of course if it all goes to crap, we will get the inevitable "Told you so, should have cut him loose faster". Thats not an unfair perspective.
Me, I'm gonna try to hold onto football sanity, at least until 24 is well under way and we have a representative sample.

 

Not really. Go look at our SEC opponents' OOC schedule (competitive teams in bold):

Alabama: Western Kentucky, Mercer, USF, Wisconsin
Arkansas: Ark-Pine Bluff, Oklahoma State, UAB, La Tech
Auburn: Alabama A&M, California, New Mexico, La-Monroe
Florida: Miami, UCF, Samford, FSU
Georgia: Clemson, Tenn Tech, UMass, Ga Tech
Kentucky: Southern Miss, Ohio, Murray State, Louisville
LSU: USC, UCLA, Nicholls State, South Alabama
Miss State: Eastern Kentucky, Arizona State, Toledo, UMass
Mizzou: Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, UMass
Oklahoma: Temple, Houston, Tulane (they aren't bad), Maine
Ole Miss: Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, Georgia Southern
South Carolina: Old Dominion, Akron, Wofford, Clemson
Tennessee: UT-Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State, Texas-El Paso
Texas: Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA (they aren't bad), La-Monroe
Texas A&M: Notre Dame, McNeese St, Bowling Green, New Mexico State
Vandy: Virginia Tech, Alcorn State, Georgia State, Ball State

Howell's website has Howell's team rankings listed. Here are the averages for the OOC competition (FCS are arbitrarily given a ranking of 140):

Florida: 63d
LSU: 68th
Texas: 71st

Texas A&M: 83d
Alabama: 85th
Kentucky: 87th
Georgia: 88th

Arkansas: 92d
Oklahoma: 93d
South Carolina: 97th
Ole Miss: 99th

Vandy: 102d
Tennessee: 103d
Miss State: 104th
Mizzou: 118th
Auburn: 119th

Compared to the rest of the SECs OOC schedule (except for LSU and Texas), our OOC schedule is monstrous.

 

oh, I’ve always realized that the top teams in our conference schedule garbage. I’m just saying that the nine game SEC schedule that is coming and even eight games this year, teams will have to be pretty good to go 10 and two. 10 and two years ago was much easier to achieve when you only played four teams that had a chance to beat you in the first place.

 

But we don't know who the bottom feeders are. We don't have Vandy, Arkansas, on the schedule. Miami, Miss State, Texas A&M and yes, UCF, are not really any worse than we are, and all those teams could turn it around as well. If they finish 2024 with ten wins, they aren't bottom feeders.

I have ideas of dating a hot 50 year old former model, but easier said than done.

Oh yes, it could. My freshman year was 1979. Pile up a perfect storm of schedule, and piles of injuries like in 2013, and we could go 1-11.

Is it a guarantee?

I just want the Gators to show consistent improvement in team play, fewer bonehead mistakes, better clock management, and a few surprise stars. We could end up 5-7 and actually be as good as a nine-win team with an easier schedule. You could get Spurrier's and Meyer's greatest teams, but having to play a season of 10+ win opponents and not go 13-1.

* From 2005-2009, Meyer's Gators had a 12-9 (.571) record against P5 opponents with 9+ wins.

* From 1991-2001, Spurrier's Gators had a 27-24 (.529) record against P5 opponents with 9+ wins.

If we play 8-9 teams with 9+ wins at the end of the season, we are going to struggle to break even. Regardless what people think, schedules matter...

 

Gotcha. Let's look at the SEC schedule of each team and get the average:

Florida: 19th
Oklahoma: 21st
Vandy: 23d
Arkansas: 24th
Miss State: 24th
Georgia: 27th
South Carolina: 29th
Auburn: 34th
Ole Miss: 34th
Alabama: 35th
Texas A&M: 37th
Kentucky: 38th
Tennessee: 41st
LSU: 42d
Texas: 45th
Mizzou: 48th

So, Florida's SEC average is 19th, while the average SEC team is 33d. Florida's OOC average is 63d, while the SEC average is 92d.

And people expect Billy to win 7+ games, with both the toughest conference and OOC schedule by a comfortable, if not large margin.

 

I will amend this by saying "If he is in great danger of getting fired in the next year or two, it's going to be a while before we're good, whether or not he is fired." Your comment assumes that if he is fired we will not be good for a while, but the same can be said if he stays on for a year or two more and we tailspin (especially with the portal). There is simply no crystal ball either way.

My concerns:
- The S&C situation.
- BN having too many roles: HC, OC, QB coach, and wanting yes men (what I have heard).
- Two years of getting worse as the season goes.

If he bombs and wins 3/4 games or if he wins 8+ games, the decision is pretty easy. If we get 5-7 wins I think a lot will (and should) depend on how the team looked thru the year (progress, well coached, bad breaks or dumb mistakes, injuries or bad game plan), recruiting and if the staff grows (especially on D).

 

Nice post eighties!
So you are a "Larry the Wizard" Ochab guy eh??
FYI I was in the bleachers that season as well.

Damn sure gave the mighty unbeaten Noles a little scare in 79, at least for a good portion of the game.

 

Agree, life ain't fair, but it is the reality we face. I am more on the "must win" 6 team as regards 7, specifically because of the schedule.

 

Pretty much my take also.

 

Because we bring down their average and they raise ours.

 

Doesn't work that way. We could be Georgia and it doesn't change the schedule...

 

Over 5.5 (yeah, I took it) sure looked good after our fifth win in SC. Then, sure as $hit, the Gators lost five games to finish the season. Now that I'm thinking about it again, It's simply unbelievable that the Gators lost five straight games. Some fast facts:

• The Gators never once lost five in a row during the 1980s.
• The Gators never lost five games in any season during the 1990s.
• The Gators lost exactly five games during each of Zook's three years.
• The Gators lost five games once under Meyer (2010).
• The Gators lost seven games in a row under Muschamp (2013).
• The Gators lost five in a row in Mac's last year, but two were with Randy Shannon as HBC.

I know the schedule is ridiculous next season, but the Gators damn well better not lose five in a row.