US Political Betting is Open

Thought this deserved its own thread as we may have insight into hedging and other prop type bets on elections versus the traditional polls. After 100 years, political betting is now open 5 weeks before the November election. This will be an interesting day on the opening of this market.

Economically, a business creating a political hedge against a particular candidate is very telling on business impact and how “in the pocket” they are on a particular candidate, although it may never come to light in the public sphere.

“A federal appeals court in Washington on Wednesday cleared the way for financial exchange startup Kalshi to revive the first fully regulated election-betting markets in the U.S. The three-judge panel lifted a temporary freeze on the markets while rejecting an emergency bid from Wall Street regulators to halt trading pending a full appeal of a lower-court decision in favor of Kalshi.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/election-betting-markets-00182165