UF has an election lab that is being cited by media sources, so I thought I'd post the link here. They have a lot of data on early and absentee voting, etc. Very easy to follow and very succinct. » 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
A few observations in some key states: Georgia: if you look at the percentage rate of returned mail in ballots in certain counties, it looks ominous for Democrats. Cobb, Dekalb and Fulton county's % return rate is far below the rest of the state as a whole. One could theorize this means there is a backlog of ballots to be counted, but given the demographics in these areas, that doesn't line up with the statewide demographic breakdown of votes so far, which are roughly in line with the statewide registration. So this could be a big problem for Democrats. We'll see. Dekalb and Fulton especially being huge centers of would be Harris voters, to be sure. Cobb to a lesser degree, but still a Harris county one would think. Michigan: if you look at counties like Wayne, return rate is fairly similar to the rest of the state, but on the lower end. Also, females are outpacing males by 13% in Michigan thus far. North Carolina: Republicans lead even with women outvoting men by 10% so far. Indicates NC has plenty of gas left in the GOP tank. PA: it is quite possible that Dems finish with below a 300,000 mail in firewall.
You’re observations are childishly laughable. NC: women outvote men by about 10%. That trend has held for many elections. PA: Democrats requested 500,000 more mail in votes than Pubs and their return rate is so far 66% vs pubs at 60%. On track. Regardless you can’t compare early votes. WHEN isn’t IF you vote. Are you paid for this cuz you’re terrible at it? This thread is redundant.
This is great news with regard to woman outpacing the men... becasue the men will mostly vote Pub on average than they will vote Dem.
Will also mention VoteHub.com as they have some fancy tools as well. Check out Georgia. They've color-coded and ranked highest turnout county for EV so far to lowest. Most counties running above statewide average were deep red states in 2020. Fulton County is running behind state average turnout to date. Early Voting Tracker
You seem to be really fascinated how Republicans are voting so much more early, vs 2020, and extrapolating that this is some Republican wave coming. To me, in a normal world it wouldn’t shock me that republicans would vote early, as they are disproportionately older and have more time to get out and vote and proactively avoid the crowds. 2020 was an outlier, in that Trump told Republicans don’t vote early, and Democrats wanted to vote early or by mail to avoid COVID risks, and Republicans thought COVID was fake.
Let me be clear. I am not predicting any sort of red wave. However, the EV trends this year look a lot different than they have in the past few elections. For POTUS, in states like PA, certain firewall goals that Dems set early on in order to have a legit shot of winning have fallen way short. Those weren't my numbers. They came from Dems. There are still counties in PA that have more registered Dems than GOP and went 70/30 for Trump in 2020. As for why the EV is surging for GOP voters, you can make all the excuses about being old, etc etc. The fact is the GOP are beating the Dems at their own game in many swing states. Will that lead to victory? Time will tell, but as I have said before, I've always envied Dems early voting and mail in advantage. Why would you not want have a head start?
Matt Bevins fan is putting a lot of faith in GOP gains in EV/VBM vs. prior elections. First, there is no pandemic. 2nd, the GOP's orange god has encouraged instead of disparaged early voting. 3rd, some Dems are reporting wanting to vote in person to not be part of the "late night vote dump" narrative the election deniers still like to push.
Cherry picking. In PA Democrats have returned a much higher percent of their early ballots than republicans. Its not even close. They are on track to about a 450,000 advantage which is what you derive when you assume both dems and pubs will return 90% of their mail ballots. Last election Dems returned 89% and Pubs 79% so its likely to be higher than 450k.
There isnt anyone who wasnt already a Trumper who thinks the recovery here was botched. In fact, many conservatives helped by the state and federal responders here know that was bullshit and I wouldnt be surprised if that did Trump in. His polls have fallen since then.
