Unemployment rate going up

Lol! A thread complaining about sub 4% unemployment from the perspective of it being too high!

 

Stagflation does suck. Fortunately it's disappeared in the early '80s and the only possibility of its return would be the election of Trump. Even if the unemployment rates increase to 4.5% it would still be low by historic standards. Keep in mind the Ronald Reagan was considered an economic miracle worker when the unemployment rate was 7.2% and the inflation rate was 4.5%.

 

psst. 4-5% UE is considered FULL employment.

Full Employment: Definition, Types, and Examples

 

Thank you Diamond Joe for guiding us through this mess. OP would rather have a rapist and grifter in office.

 

with econ policies that make dems look like cons.

 

Unemployment news is likely good for inflation reduction. The Phillips Curve dictates low unemployment means businesses will engage in bidding wars for the scarce talent available, which will drive prices up. Phillips Curve is usually only short term, as eventually, employment rates stabilize to whatever new reality is left after inflation.

Too early to tell, but we could be seeing the start of this normalization. Unemployment rates before 4%, and the Phillips Curve comes into play. 4% to 5% unemployment, and there's little to no effect on inflation. That's why 4% to 5% is the target.

 

Creating 175,000 new jobs and UE ticked up slightly means there are even more people trying to enter the work force. Great news all around! Diamond Joe has done it again!

 

interesting reference. The Phillips curve was pretty controversial & weird right outta the gate. (I've never taught it, but I rarely teach macro). It seems very country specific in its ability to track the relationship between UE & inf. I think the FED published a paper showing that it is sensitive to labor's bargaining power. either way, it is pretty voodoo-y, at best. i recommend laymen stay far away from it.

 

By that metric 2012 when the annual average unemployment rate was 8.1% would be "full employment" considering that in the same year home prices were at their lowest level in over 20 years. Below is graph of the inflation adjusted cost of home ownership.

 

Dam, son. Is that a Chinese term for hooray the US sucks & will elect a China LOVER?

 

I think this is a good explanation between inflation and unemployment. The Phillips Curve is a short term only measure. And low unemployment has shown it can be a driver of inflation, short term, under the right conditions. I'd say our recent current conditions apply. 3000 more open jobs than unemployed.

Long term, there are many other factors that play into inflation that make Phillips not a great indicator. What Friedman called normalization.

Last, I would think people would've learned their lesson about celebrating May poll leads for November elections by now. I know Hillary supporters understand.

 

IMO, the PC is trying to simplify a complex issue....everyone loves to have a curve named after them tho.

to yr last pt, I think Trump only gains steam. People love BIG GOV & circus clowns. The dems should dump Biden, but they won't. Sad state of affairs. I mean look at @okeechobee. 'at virgin's been tumescent over a weird anti american clown & unfortunately he reps a lot of BIG GOV loving, anti American morons.

 

This is great news and the stock markets today responded accordingly.

 

Well that simplifies life. Duly noted.