Post-spring SP+ rankings: Who moved up after the portal and spring practice ESPN has UF at #33 with a 9.9 power ranking. I don't agree with these rankings and think a more accurate projection would be around #18 with a 16.1 power ranking. I'm also giving the Swamp a +4 home field advantage vs -3 for our away games. Here's how our 2024 schedule shakes out given our opponents' rankings vs our higher ranking: Home vs Miami at 14.4 = 16.1-14.4+4 = UF -5.7 = 65% chance of winning Home vs Samford (not ranked) = 100% Home vs A&M at 19.8 = 16.1-19.8+4 = UF -.3 = 50% At Miss St at -2.3 = 16.1+2.3-3 = UF -15.4 = 88% Home vs UCF at 4.3 = 16.1-4.3+4 = UF -15.8 = 89% At Tennessee at 19 = 16.1-19-3 = UF +5.9 = 34% Home vs UK at 12.4 = 16.1-12.4+4 = UF -7.7 = 73% In Jax vs UGA at 36.3 = 16.1-36.3 = UF +20.2 = 0% At Texas at 29.5 = 16.1-29.5-3 = UF +16.4 = 11% Home vs LSU at 25.1 = 16.1-25.1+4 = UF +5 = 36% Home vs Ole Miss at 26.6 = 16.1-26.6+4 = UF +6.5 = 32% At F$U at 21.4 = 16.1-21.4-3 = UF +8.3 = 26% That would result in UF having 6.04 predicted wins with a 5-2 projected start. A 6-1 start would be great!
Interesting analysis, Ahab. I tried finding the power rankings, but they appear to be paywalled. I'd be interested to see which teams UF leapfrogged in your bump from #33 to #18. Are you basing that increased ranking from the roster? I don't think they can be considered #18 from anything we saw on the field last season.
I think we improved our roster pretty significantly through the portal this offseason but our power rankings look more like last year's team. #16 Tennessee #17 Kansas St #18 Utah #19 Miami #20 Ok St #21 USC #22 Iowa #23 SMU #24 Arizona #25 Kentucky #26 UCLA #27 Wisconsin #28 Louisville #29 NC St #30 Iowa St #31 Auburn #32 Va Tech #33 Florida
And then...there's coaching. CFN ranks all D1 coaches: #1 Kirby Smart, Georgia Wins at FBS Coach: 94 SEC Rank: 1 Remember, this wasn’t a given. Will Muschamp, Manny Diaz, Jeremy Priitt, Dan Mullen … elite assistants don’t always turn into good head coaches, much less dominant forces like Smart has been. #4 Brian Kelly, LSU Wins at FBS Coach: 186 SEC Rank: 2 All past controversies at Notre Dame aside - at least for the moment - he’s a whale of a football coach with a phenomenal resumé. He’s a few defensive tweaks away from putting LSU front and center in the national title chase. #6 Mike Norvell, Florida State Wins at FBS Coach: 69 ACC Rank: 2 He should probably be a wee bit higher than this when it comes to the Who’s Hot head coaches. He rose up after winning 19 straight games before losing all his good QBs. It took a bit, but FSU is a player again. #8 Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss Wins at FBS Coach: 95 SEC Rank: 3 America needs to give the guy more credit. If you were to NASCAR this and give everyone the same parts, he might be No. 1 on this list. Since 1970, winning at Ole Miss hasn’t been a given, and he’s doing it. #15 Steve Sarkisian, Texas Wins at FBS Coach: 71 SEC Rank: 5 Texas should’ve beaten Washington., but … all the talent is there, all of the expectations are in place, and Texas isn’t just back, it might be better than ever. Now he has to do it all in the SEC. #16 Josh Heupel, Tennessee Wins at FBS Coach: 55 SEC Rank: 6 Is it possible that he’s way underrated? It’s been quickly forgotten how hard it was to make Tennessee a player again, and he did it after a wildly successful run at UCF. #28 Mark Stoops, Kentucky Wins at FBS Coach: 73 SEC Rank: 7 It might not be flashy, but Kentucky keeps on winning - seven winning seasons in the last eight years, with the outlier 2020. How many other SEC East teams - not Georgia - wish they could say that? #32 Gus Malzahn, UCF Wins at FBS Coach: 101 Big 12 Rank: 8 Eleven straight winning seasons before last year - and he went 6-7 - he’s a strong veteran head man whose team will be stronger in Year Two in the Big 12. #41 Mario Cristobal, Miami Wins at FBS Coach: 74 ACC Rank: 5 This is more projection than proof lately, but the recruiting at Miami is great after helping Oregon get up to speed and rolling. Now the wins have to be there. #68 Billy Napier, Florida Wins at FBS Coach: 51 SEC Rank: 11 This isn't working. Hand raised among those who thought this was a home run hire, and it still might be. He still gets credit here for his time at Louisiana, but the wins in Gainesville need to show up.
When did Heupel have a wildly successful run at UCF? He went 12-1 with Frost’s team, then went 10-3 followed by 6-4. This was also before they were in the big12 and had a much easier schedule.
0% chance to beat Georgia? That’s not even possible. And having a less chance of beating FSU than Ole Miss Or LSU? I have to question these peoples logic.
FSU at number six as a complete joke I think but they do play a week schedule and could stay in that ranking.
What's interesting is that our over/under win total has dropped from 5.5 to 4.5. I wonder what swayed that. Regardless, I like the over and glad it happened. That's cash.
Zero % Chance of beating Georgia is tough to look at. How can that be? Suppose they lay an egg? Suppose we're undefeated going into the game? Wouldn't that change the perception? Anyway, I guess we'll see what team we field this year. On Paper we look good. In reality, I hope we look even better. I hope we can win the games we're supposed to win, and then get a break or two with some others. Go Gators.
I just used a probability chart that turns point spreads into winning percentages. It says anything over 20 points is a 0% chance. The power rankings for that matchup are UF +20.2.
Reacting to preseason FPI release: Which teams are undervalued? Overvalued? ESPN released their "power index" rankings and these seem much more reasonable. UF at #20 with a 10.1 ranking. Here's how our schedule breaks down using these new rankings. Home vs Miami at 9.6= 10.1-9.6+4 = UF -4.5 = 63% chance of winning Home vs Samford (not ranked) = 100% Home vs A&M at 13.6 = 10.1-13.6+4 = UF -.5= 50% At Miss St at 3.4= 10.1-3.4-3 = UF -3.7 = 61% Home vs UCF at 6.2 = 10.1-6.2+4 = UF -7.9 = 74% At Tennessee at 16.6 = 10.1-16.6-3 = UF +9.5 = 25% Home vs UK at 6.2 = 10.1-6.2+4 = UF -7.9 = 74% In Jax vs UGA at 26.8 = 10.1-26.8 = UF +16.7 = 10% At Texas at 22.9 = 10.1-22.9-3 = UF +15.8 = 12% Home vs LSU at 14.6 = 10.1-14.6+4 = UF +.5 = 50% Home vs Ole Miss at 12 = 10.1-12+4 = UF -2.1 = 53% At F$U at 15.1 = 10.1-15.1-3 = UF +8 = 26% UF projected with 5.98 wins. I think these probabilities look more realistic. Higher vs UGA, LSU and Ole Miss but lower vs UT, UCF and on the road vs Miss St (the one I'd quibble with the most).
This Power Index suggests we're the underdog in only 4 games. They should swap the odds on TAMU and UCF/Kentucky. We have a 74% chance of beating UCF? More like 50/50. Gus Malzahn and K.J Jefferson versus Billy Napier and staff? And Kentucky is also at 74%? They've beaten us for 3 straight years. We have a better chance of beating TAMU than UCF or Kentucky IMHO.
What can we do other than hope the percentages turn out to be more in our favor(better staff, better roster) than preseason expectations?
FSU was better than both of those teams last year, and our game with them is in Tally whereas the other two are in the Swamp. Not hard to understand..
Looking at this schedule, I see two games that will likely prove key to the Gators' success. First, a step back. In a recent thread by Mr. posts-alotta-threads, the hordes were all on the Miami game being most important. Bunk. Sure, it's an important win if the Gators get it. It's not the most important, though. The Gators could lose the opener and still have a decent season. My claim is that the LSU/Ole Miss games at home will be key to the outcome. Here are five diff scenarios . . . .................................1.......2.......3.......4.......5 Home vs Miami...........W.......L.......W.......L.......L Home vs Samford.......W.......W.......W......W......W Home vs A&M.............W.......L.......L.......W.......L At Miss St...................L.......W.......W......L.......W Home vs UCF..............W.......L........W......W......L At Tennessee..............L........L........L.......L......W Home vs UK...............W.......L........W......W......L In Jax vs UGA.............W.......L........L.......L.......L At Texas.....................L........L........L.......L.......W Scenario one is the "optimistic" scenario, with the Gators at 6-3 going into the home stretch. Scenario two is the "pessimistic" scenario, with the Gators at 2-7 going into the home stretch. The others are more moderate scenarios with the gators winning 4 or 5 games up to that point. Some will argue that that Gators could be 7-2 or better and that's fine, but it's not likely. The most likely scenarios have the Gators at 4 or 5 wins going into the following games: Home vs LSU Home vs Ole Miss At F$U Now consider the scenarios in which the Gators lose to Miami. Win the LSU game and we've either clinched the bowl berth or have two more chances at clinching it. Lose the LSU game and we need either one or two wins against MS/FSU.
