Trump's Troubles

Trump posted something on his BS Social site the other night about saving vaping, which seemed odd and random.

Turns out he met with a vaping exec the day before. The kind that shows up with a fat envelope I'm sure.

 

Folks, this election is all but over, thanks to the Donald Trump - Taylor Swift feud. They got "bad blood", apparently. Swifties are breaking all kinds of records registering to vote. Guess who they are voting for? (Sure, some of them will put in a write-in vote for Taylor, but the rest are voting for Harris.) It's being called the Taylor Swift effect. Henceforth all politicians will be required to kiss Taylor's ring.

Combine this with the "Donald Trump Effect", and this election is over. So who is running in 2028?

Voter registration is spiking, particularly among young adults

 

Forget the Taylor Swift Effect (that's so 30 minutes ago), this election is apparently going to be decided by the "intruder getting shot" effect. Harris' comment about gun ownership and shooting criminals may have been the key to winning the race, according to some experts. This comment is expected to win over white people in the rust belt.

In future races, candidates will be expected to bring an actual criminal on-stage and shoot them, which will prove their commitment to fighting crime and using guns to do it. (The article does not say this explicitly, but I'm reading between the lines here, and applying my understanding of the Idiocracy in the U.S.) Trump has a limited amount of time to find a criminal and shoot him to have any hope in this race. Unfortunately, the biggest and boldest criminal in Trump's immediate vicinity is always Donald J. Trump, felon-at-large. Knowing Trump, however, he will convince one of his toadies to "take one for the team". He should have done this before selecting a vice-President, as it would have solved two problems with one shot, assuming that Trump can shoot straight.

Kamala Harris's Unexpected Comment On Guns Is Going Viral, And People Are Saying It Could Be The Key To Winning The Race

 

He was a pretty athletic guy. He got up on the pitchers mound post 9/11 with a full bullet proof jacket and sailed it across the plate. But athletic ability doesn’t necessarily correlated with political competence.

 

Kamala has done everything right, and everything has gone her way. Trump and Vance have done just about everything they can to sabotage their chances. Yet the polling is still 50/50 and Trump has higher approval ratings than he has ever had. To say it is all but over is reckless. You seem to have forgotten 2016.

 

Hillary spent the final weeks of her campaign taking a victory lap around California. She completely ignored rural votes in battleground states throughout her campaign, with advisors telling her that those people didn't matter. There were suspicions about her character, and questions as to whether she was qualified to be president. I am fairly certain that the democrats have learned from 2016. I'm being a little tongue-in-cheek when I say that the election is over, but Trump seems to be determined to drive off a cliff with his chances of election. It's a little too much fun to watch my favorite felon and con-man go down in flames.

 

Harris has a 5% lead over Trump, with the biggest favorability jump since GWB after 9-11. In other words, Trump being president is viewed by Americans as the equivalent of a major terrorist attack.

Kamala Harris Has Biggest Favorability Jump Since George W. Bush After 9/11

 

it is hard for me to be positive when she is doing everything right and he is acting like a complete idiot and they are effectively tied. There are a lot of people who have decided whatever he does they don’t care because they think he has some magic mojo with the economy.

 

Once again, Trump gets rejected and humiliated. This time, by House Republicans. Trump wanted a government shutdown to make Biden & Harris look bad, but House Republicans said no. Whatever charms he had, he seems to have lost them. Such a loser he is . . .

Trump’s shutdown push falls flat with Republicans

 

The latest polls are showing Harris with a 5% lead over Trump. That seems like a significant lead to me. Hillary lost in 2016 with a 2% lead in the popular vote (and like I mentioned, was busy securing additional votes she didn't need in California in the final weeks). Al Gore lost in 2000 with a 0.5% lead in the popular vote. Trump is trending downward, while Harris is trending upward. Trump is toast. Harris needs to do some campaigning in battleground states and keep saying what she's been saying, and she'll cruise to an easy victory. Trump needs to find a new message and stop doing what he's been doing. He's totally incapable of doing either one. He's a knuckle-dragging moron and a con-man, and enough Americans have come to this conclusion to keep him out of the White House. An insurrection is Trump's most likely path to leading this country again.

 

Political scientist calls the election for Harris, and identifies the turning point: the July 31st meeting with Black journalists, where Trump went off about whether Harris was Black or not. The gambling website that takes bets on who would win the election turned on a dime and people were suddenly backing off from betting on Trump while increased betting on Harris was occurring.

Data scientist nails the Trump gaffe that started what looks today like a building Harris landslide

 

To me, Trump's refusal to debate Harris again is his admission of defeat. He's given up. Instead of trying to defeat Harris on substance and finding new advisors to help him counter Harris' message, he just wants to phone it in and blame people for his loss. Clearly, he did not do well in the first debate with Harris. If he had any political fight left in him, he would insist on another debate, with at least the hope that Harris steps in it, or the idea that he could find some way to make some points against her without so obviously lying. He literally doesn't have anything to lose by debating Harris again, but he won't do it unless he gets to pick moderators who are as hostile towards Harris as the last ones were to his lies. If he can't find a cheap and easy path to victory, he won't compete. He doesn't have it in him. He's a loser.

 

If this is true, and it very well may be, I'm honestly shocked he has the self awareness to realize he'd get creamed in another debate. He has zero self awareness about anything else, not sure why he'd start now.

 

I don't think the polls are capturing the excitement, or lack of excitement, in the two bases.

I expect a huge turnout for Dems and a weak turnout for Pubs. But time will tell.

 

To make it even more depressing, my Trumpeteer friends and family have, to a man, said in response to me pointing out the daily outrageous things that Trump says and does, that they “just don’t care. Nothing will change my mind.”

 

It is a cult.

 

Certainly true, but I think we might be able to explain this without having to resort to self-awareness. Debate #1 Biden felt good, people criticized opponent, do debate again. Debate #2 felt bad, people criticized me, don’t do debate again.

 

You know, a lot of the clips in this thread are probably out of context or just unimportant little flubs of speech, but this one Trump clearly intended to say. If you just let me talk to some workers for a few minutes, I’ll know more about that industry than the experts who have been in the field for years. That’s how he views his ability. It brings to mind a quote from FA Hayek:

The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.​

 

To be fair, this has been the case for the last 7 years, at least.