Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

That's a wuss move.

 

The most accurate pollster 8n 2020 (they say) was AtlasIntel. In their final poll they have Trump winning the popular vote by 3.1%.

The far left LA Times has refused to endorse a candidate

Senators are distancing themselves from Kamala, not just in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

I told you what would happen many weeks ago based on the best Intel, Barris and Barnes. You could have made a lot of money. Still can. Go to Kalshi and place some bets. It will ease your pain when Kamala loses Billy.

Note that people ar3 starting to realize Joe Biden would have b3en a better candidate than Kamala. Who would have been better inthe rust belt of Penn, Mich and Wisc, "Scranton Joe" or "San Fran Kamala"? Thanks Dems for backing Kamala and adding 6 figures to my bank account. Well into 6 figures HEE HAW!!!

 

Hasta la vista

 

Trump was the heavy favorite a year ago. I told you this.

Kamala's supposed edge over Trump was due to "response bias."

Response bias dissipated as I told you it would.

As people have come to know who Kamala really is she's suffering further erosion, more of a collapse actually. All as expected

 

Saying "no tax on tips" in Nevada is a winner. Saying "no tax on tips" in Nevada two weeks after the other guy just said it gets the face palm, apparently.

 

As predicted months ago

 

Robert Barnes said he would use the Amos Miller case to register 5he Amish in Pennsylvania and it's worked out pretty well.

All roads lead to Robert Barnes.

Does this registration of Amish voters show up in the Pennsylvania polling?

 

Given the trajectory of the voting so far if it continues this election will be called on election night

 

Rich Baris: Wealthy Democrat donors are now acknowledging that if Biden was on the ballot a higher percentage of Democrats would be going to the polls. They now realize Biden was replaced with the only candidate who would do worse than him.

Peek Democrat whining and finger pointing coming up. Instead of trying to win the presidency there will be desperate pleas try to save the House. Enjoy the desperate machinations of a losing campaign going into its death throes

 

This article nicely lays out the argument for respecting prediction market prices, even if there are big bettors in them.

First, the obvious point: it’s not just Polymarket where Trump is rallying. Trump "yes" shares are trading at around 59.9 cents on Polymarket right now, indicating the market sees a 59.9% probability he will win. (Each share pays out $1 if the prediction comes true, and zero if not.) Predictit – a U.S. platform with strict betting limits (which would in theory be immune to the Polymarket whale) – has Trump at 56%. Kalshi, a U.S.-based, regulated platform, has Trump at 58%. If you think this price action constitutes “manipulation,” you would have to wonder why Kalshi – a platform where manipulation would be reportable – is trading in line with Polymarket.
…
Secondly, the fact that a single anonymous entity has made large bets is not by itself evidence of “manipulation,” as many Harris supporters are claiming. Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine flatly says: “this does not look like market manipulation: Fredi9999 is not buying sloppily with the effect of pushing up the price, but rather buying carefully, in a manner that seems designed to get him a lot of Trump contracts for his money.” The simplest possible explanation is that a trader simply thinks Trump is underpriced and is willing to bet heavily on it.

The mere existence of a large buyer does not imply manipulation. The entire premise of markets is that prices compress available information by rewarding those who take risk to express their views. The identity of the traders or the distribution of trades is irrelevant; in theory, everyone has a motive to extract information from markets by betting when their belief about the fair value of an asset diverges from the market’s value. Markets don’t need to be democratic in order to be reliable. They just need the most informed participants to financially express a view. Individual traders having concentrated ownership of an asset doesn’t in any way delegitimize the price. No one questions the price of Apple stock because Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns a lot of it.

This is a long-winded way of saying the market is never “wrong.” It simply reflects all available information. If you correctly disagree with the market, you can be rewarded for that belief, by betting yourself. U.S. users have alternatives to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them under a regulatory settlement. If you believe the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the price of the Trump contract, and b) is wrong, you can simply bet against him or her or them by going long on Harris. Even though it’s not risk-free – Harris still needs to win for your bet to pay off – if you thought her “real” odds were 55%, you would be buying something worth 55 cents for 40 cents today. Even if you might not be willing to do that, other market participants will. So if the Polymarket whale is indeed misinformed, now that we know there’s a (potentially misinformed) whale, you would expect the odds to decline as traders incorporate this new information. Unless of course, the prediction markets are generally reliable and the whale hasn’t influenced them much.

No, Polymarket Whales Aren't Evidence of Prediction Market Manipulation

​

 

Nobody polls Florida better than Rich Baris, who lives in NW Gainesville. His latest (per his Tuesday Oct 22 podcast);

Trump 52.6
Harris 38.8

The election should be called before midnight, Nov. 5.

Oh my:
Baris: "Kamala Harris is going down worse than Hillary went down."

Barnes: "Willie Brown said differently."


Black turnout is down in Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (both urban and rural)

Harris underperforming with virtually every demographic group compared to Hillary and Biden.

LA Times refusing to endorse Harris (or anyone). No one wants to go down with a sinking ship

Early data shows that black turnout will be double digits below white turnout. At levels probably not seen since the 1980s. (In 2012 black turnout was greater than white turnout). White turnout could be around 71% with black turnout expected to be 60-61% or less.

Mark Halperin (Democrat): Kamala is performing so poorly in early voting we may know the result before election day.

 

Quinnipiac polls out today. Harris went from -4 to plus 4 in MI, and -2 to even in WI. Their polls are really bouncy (in a way I respect actually), so no one believes she gained 8 points in MI in a couple of weeks. But the trend could matter.
The Harrisx national poll went from Harris plus 2 to Trump plus 2.
The TIPPs national poll went from plus 2 Trump to plus 2 Harris the last few days, but that’s where it was a week or two ago, think it just got an anomalous couple of days.
Morning consult stayed at plus 4 Harris.

But historically, right about now is when polls start to show final momentum for one or the other, so something to watch in other polling going forward. Is there a trend in the next few days for one or the other, because whoever gets it if it comes it’s likely the last amd quite possibly definitive momentum shift.

 

You would also expect it to start showing up in the early voting over the next 10 days or so.

 

First, betting markets aren't always rational. There's a reason why the phrase, "All true gamblers die broke," has some truth to it. We all have our biases, and when we let that get in the way of gambling, we tend to make silly bets that have little chance of hitting.

Second, there is evidence that Polymarket is being manipulated using automation. From the article:

Business Insider compiled the trading activity of the four accounts and found that two of them, Fredi9999 and Theo4, together had placed more than 2,500 bets in the past 24 hours.

Theo4 has placed as many as 71 bets a minute, suggesting that the betting activity could be automated.
​

How can humans keep up with a bot? We can't, unless there is a human out there who can place 71 bets in 60 seconds or less?

 

Republicans in control in Arizona. Trump should win by ~5%-6%

 

If that margin holds until election day, which it may not, Harris would have to be winning others somewhere around 64% to 36% to be even going into 11/4.

 

As Mark Halperin said, this election might be called before election day. Trump should win the popular vote. Turnout should be down from 2020 to maybe just 150 million or so according to some experts. (I thought it would be a little higher)

Trump should get at least 312 electoral votes. Maine and New Hampshire could bump that to 319 (Trump could get 3 of Maine's 4 electoral votes, NH has 4 votes).

New Mexico and Minnesota are in play. Harris looks like she's up by 2, maybe 3 in New Mexico. Harris looks to be up by 2 in Minnesota but it is in play

Nevada is Trump by 2-3. Georgia and North Carolina are pretty solid for Trump. Virginia looks like Harris by 3. New Jersey is Harris by only 9

 

Remember, Arizona was the one state where the late counts were more Red than Blue. In 2020, Biden had about a 115k lead after first count, that through the week, dwindled down to the final number. The late counting ballots in Arizona are what are called the "late earlies", which are early ballots turned in after ballots can be mailed back.

The number of late earlies in 2020 was very high, because Trump wanted people to vote in person. And many people filled out their early ballot and dropped it off, in person, on election day. The number of late earlies in 2022 was still significant, but not as big. Expectations are, the number of late earlies will drop even more this cycle.

What we could be seeing are people are mailing or dropping off early ballots on time instead of waiting to do so on election day.

Last, just because someone in a R in Arizona, that's not a guaranteed Trump vote. Biden won 18% of the LDS vote in Arizona in 2020, and there are big name LDS politicians who have openly endorsed Harris, like Senator Flake and Mesa Mayor Giles.

Trump can win Arizona, but I'd be shocked if it is by more than 2 points either way.