Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Now imagine Trump get the 1 Maine EV and all the Nebraska EV's. The elusive 269-269.

 

NBC is reporting that the Harris Campaign is worried about MI. We are now close enough to start looking at EV totals and the campaigns' reaction to them to tell us more than polls.

 

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, another MAGA mouthpiece, has Trump +4 in Georgia today:

Georgia: Trump vs. Harris Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Trump 47, Harris 43

 

No clue why they'd be worried about MI...

 

Based on everything I see, she would have to win the popular vote by 3.5+% just to have a realistic shot at 270 electoral votes. The polls would have to be erring in favor of Trump worse than they erred in favor of Biden in 2020 at this stage.

 

Many polls out of PA and MI are showing Trump leading with Union members. We call that game, set, match.

 

I'm still not sure with a Harris win if Okee plans to disappear for a while or lean into the "election was stolen" mantra

 

Just a reminder the difference between the polls and the actual outcome of the 2022 election for governor in Michigan.

By the way I actually think the Harris campaign is better off worrying about Michigan than assuming that they will carry the state. Overconfidence was the reason that Clinton lost all three of the "Blue wall" states in 2016. I also think that Trump's comment demeaning the work of auto workers could really come back to bite him in Michigan.
After Trump says 'a child' could do an auto worker's job, union member responds with a challenge

 

Even metaculus, which trades on bettor accuracy rather than money, has flipped to Trump. Whatever is causing this movement toward Trump, it is definitely spreading.

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

 

Doesn’t make any sense because less than a month ago betting odds were pretty much 50/50 and let’s be honest, 95% of the country had already made up their mind by this time and early voting had already started in some states. Nothing of note has happened on either side to account for this drastic jump.

 

Betting odds from the 2016 election.

 

That report doesn't make sense. So far, Michigan's counties with the largest EV are their largest counties. The rural counties are lagging at the moment.
The complete opposite is happening with sunbelt states as rural counties are turning out

 

Do you think that Republicans will maintain their Election Day in person vote advantage or do you think they are cannibalizing it with the early voting this year?

 

I have not been following the EV in Michigan so I really do not know. If I had to guess, I think that they may not be seeing the numbers they were expecting or are seeing higher numbers in districts that are more R than D turning out within those counties.

 

It’s kind of an odd article, nothing in it is anything we didn’t already know, No one anywhere thinks all three states are locked up for her, of course Trump could win one or all of them, not sure why that has to be framed as panic. It’s just the state of the race everyone can already see, and has been for over a month. Almost feels like some of Stabenow’s folks trying to get money pumped in.
The more interesting thing is that the people they talked to think NC is the worst off for them of the remaining 4. I would actually put it second best behind Nevada based on what’s publicly available. Well ahead of GA and AZ. But the fact Harris still won’t go there now in favor of the rust belt speaks to maybe it really being what they think. I still think it’s a big mistake based on the public polling and the fact that Robinson has to be a drag there, the demographics continue to move left, the last time they won it was with an AA candidate and they only lost it by a point and change in 2020, but obviously I can’t see their internal numbers. If they do lose one in the MW and can’t win what turns out to be a close NC contest to offset it there’s going to be a ton of finger pointing.

 

GOP will maintain it to a lessor degree. They're not going to become the party of early voting overnight (one election cycle). Dems have been pushing this for years, it's part of their DNA. The thing is, it's hard to anticipate the "cannibalization" you speak of, because the extended time frames so many states have opened up now for early voting make it much easier to vote and thus it's likely both parties will exceed voter turnout for this election versus 2020. Both parties will have more early voters they can afford to "cannibalize."

 

I saw something on Twitter that pointed out MI is always to the left of PA. If MI goes red, so does PA.

 

I agree that there is no clearly obvious outcome that is causing this momentum, which makes for a fascinating study. This article explores four hypotheses regarding the cause of the movement.

4 Theories Why Trump Is Winning Big in the Betting Markets

It seems the right leaning posters favor the “markets are right” hypothesis, and the left leaning ones are persuaded that this is a result of market manipulation / a baseless positive feedback loop (aka looping).

One idea that occurs to me is that early bettors might have been anticipating a future polling runaway by Harris, and since that hasn’t materialized, they’ve shifted their money to Trump.

I as always think our best bet is to aggregate the predictions of a diverse range of thinkers, and for that task prediction markets are tough to beat. I am not saying Trump is going to win, but I do think he should be considered the favorite.

 

Yeah conventional wisdom is that it’s the most liberal of the three. This year could be the exception though with the Muslim vote, I think that’s where the alarm bells are coming from.
Math though says they just aren’t that big an impact. 5.5 million voted in the last election there, ~200k Muslims are eligible to vote, if 3/4 of them do, that’s 150k. If Harris went from 70/30 to 50/50 on that vote, that’s 30k total defections against 5.5 million votes, or .54 percent. Would have to be extremely close for it to matter. And I would still bet on some Muslims there coming home late when they finally accept what it means to put trump in office. Harris will make some late push to them too probably if she gets desperate.