Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

The "nightmare scenario"

Trump 269 Harris 269

What happens? Each state has 1 vote. House gets to pick the president

Trump becomes president

Senate picks the VP

Walz becomes vice president

Please vet me on this

 

LOL @ Harris winning Arizona. It's hard to make me laugh, but that was a good one.

 

UNF poll has Trump +10 in The Sunshine State.

 

Yeah that won't happen. Probably Trump wins AZ by 5%

 

Odds exploding on Polymarket...

 

This graph says it all:

 

To be much clearer, each of the state delegations in the House each get one vote. That vote is determined by which party has a majority in the state delegation. That is currently 28-22 but could get closer to 25-25 if AZ, GA, and WI flip this year. I do not think it is an easy Trump win if we hit the often spoken of but never realized 269-269.

 

Ha! Speaking of "hopium," if Trump is the loser again, there's gonna be a fun "hopium" thread.

 

Trafalgar's demographics are the same month after month down to the tenth. They are untrustworthy for good reason

 

If you bet on Trump ro sweep Penn, Mich and Wisc weeks ago it paid 10:1
Barnes had Trump getting 312-326 electoral votes months ago.

 

Who could have forseen this?

Prominent Polling Analyst Nate Silver Lists 24 Factors Pointing to a Trump Victory

Prominent Polling Analyst Nate Silver Lists 24 Factors Pointing to a Trump Victory

 

Democrats are cheating again, are they?

 

Final AJC Poll of Georgia.

 

lmao ya that’s what history says happens.

what’s funny is those gop friendly polls have been the most accurate every cycle since 2016.



meanwhile, the few bad ones who have Harris up happened to also be some of the worst the last 4 cycles.

For example, Morning Consult who just a few days ago said Harris plus 4 was off by 4.8 in 2020. IPSOS was off by 4.6 and their most recent poll has Harris up by 3.

Rasmussen and Traflagar were much more accurate but sure they are the ones skewing the polls.

Atlasintel was the best of 2020 and they currently have Trump +3.

 

This map is insane in showing how close the race is. Using this map, if PA, WI and MI go blue, which is entirely plausible, and everything else stays the same, it’s a Kamala win with 270-268. Holy crap!!!

 

The fact that it’s even close and Trump has a solid shot at winning is depressing in and of itself. It’s like nobody in this country has learned anything since 2016, lol. Let’s put demented, racist Grandpa Simpson in the White House to go along with all of his awful people he surrounds himself with, such as Stephen Miller. What could possibly go wrong? Education is important, people.

 

Republicans leading in Maricopa by 15,000 votes

 

The problem with that methodology is that it assumes that a candidate who is ahead but within the margin of error will carry the state. You can always ask President Hillary Clinton how accurate that methodology is at actually predicting the results of a presidential election. You can also ask Senators Adam Laxalt and Mehmet Oz whether polls in which a candidate is ahead but within the margin of error are accurate predictors of the final results of an election.