Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

^^ more disinformation. First, Biden won the 45-64 age demographic in 2020. Barely, but he won it. Trump's strongest base was from age 65+ voters, not 50-64. Secondly, 38 percent is probably about right considering the 50-64 age group turns out at a higher clip than younger voters. But it's all just noise. Trafalgar is a Republican funded poll, so they're not doing Harris any favors, but they were also very accurate in 2016 and 2020 relative to most other polls.

Just admit it and get it over with. She's losing.

 

Not good for Kamalot

 

Early voting starts today in Volusia County. I think I will wait for tomorrow to go.

 

Said it before, the increase in early voting by Republicans is almost entirely attributable to Trump's changed position on the process. It's much of more of a case of Republicans voting early instead of waiting until election day than a reflection of increased Republican turnout. In 2020 and indirectly in 2022 he demeaned early mail-in voting and actively encouraged his supporters to wait until election day to vote. This time around he stopped opposing early voting and to the extent that they have a ground game Republicans have actually started encouraging their supporters to vote early.
From 2020
Trump slams mail-in voting, says it ‘doesn’t work out well for Republicans’
2024
Trump tells supporters to vote early even as he still criticizes the practice

 

Harris and Trump locked in dead heat in seven-state poll, with some voters still deciding - The Washington Post

 

Sun belt: NC, GA, AZ are in the bag. EV stronger there for GOP than years past and the Trump lead in polls is telling us that as well. That gives DJT 262 electoral votes. He just needs to pick off one of WI, MI or PA and he's leading the polls in all three. The polls would have to be overstating his support by a substantial margin for him not to get to 270 electoral votes and well, the polls don't exactly have a history of overstating DJT's support.

 

Just one poll, but it’s nice to see something that isn’t from a conservative outlet. And this is about what you’d expect, her with a slight lead in the rust belt, him with a slight lead in the Sun belt (mostly), and all within the MOE.
You also know this is likely close to accurate because it validates Kamala’s recent public events strategy, she’s been almost exclusively been in the rust belt. They seem to think they have a lead there and if they can lock it down anything else is gravy.
I do think though that they are overlooking NC, I absolutely think it’s winnable for them if they put the effort there, and gives them a buffer on Wisconsin should that fall. The last four polls there have them tied in one, her leading in two and him leading in one.

 

This article looks at LDS voters in Arizona, and tells why Arizona isn't a Trump lock. Outside of Utah, the Mesa/Gilbert suburbs of Phoenix have the largest LDS (Mormon) population in the US.

Four years ago, Biden actually won about 18% of their vote, and it was almost all quiet support. People who had Trump signs in their front yard secretly and quietly voted for Biden. This year, the support has not been quiet at all. Mesa Mayor Giles, who is LDS, spoke at the Democratic National Convention, former Senator Flake supports Harris, and there are a lot more Harris signs in the area than Biden signs four years ago. And even more houses with nothing in front at all.

This begs the question how much more LDS voters can Harris win over past the 18% Biden won? And how much of this support is "quiet" and outwardly supporting Trump to fit in, but secretly voting for Harris?

This might also help explain the huge split between the Gallego/Lake race and Harris/Trump. (D) Gallego is leading Lake by between 6 and 8 points in polls, but Trump is generally +2. Lake may be too far gone for outward LDS support, and it may be more acceptable to support Gallego. And silently, these same Gallego supporters are also closet Harris voters?

 

The awful GOP down ballot polling is interesting. I don’t see how that many people are voting Democrat at the state level and Trump nationally. Just is perplexing in the polls.

 

If this trend continues she will win. But you never know what will happen late in an election.

 

I decided to mail mine in - my ballot arrived on Friday......

 

Couple of updates on the Senate races from Cook Political Report.

 

Mine arrived but my wife accidentally wasn’t paying attention and tossed it so we have to go in person. Lol.

 

It is what happens when you tell John McCain Republicans in AZ that you do not want their support. I'll be interested to see how many R voters chose not to vote in the Senate race.

 

15 days to go

 

Did you even bother reading their poll? It says plainly that 80% of the respondents made up their minds over a month ago. 11% in the past month. 6% in the past week. So 97% of people have already made up their minds. There's no trend left to be had. I've never seen someone so strung out on hopium. You're stretching for a poll that clearly shows Trump winning the EC, just like every other poll coming out now does.

 

All those GOP friendly polls oversampling boomers, I tell ya.

 

Lake was going to lose anyway, but if she really said exactly that quote, she deserves to lose.

 

Those undecided voters are lying.