Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

And their third poll today has Kamala up 1 in WI, in large part because it has AAs 72-25 for her. That number is much closer to accurate and magically she’s leading there, though well within the MOE.
Weird how that works.

But to take these at face value, she is plus 4 with AAs in MI where Biden was around plus 80 in the last election, and plus 47 in a neighboring and similar behaving state.

none of the three final statewide results would be out of the question in the end (especially factoring in the MOE), but how they had to contort to get there right now is pretty funny.

 

Barack is blacker than Kamala and he was the FIRST black president. Blacks voted for Obama at a high rate. Same thing happens when you're looking at electing the first black governor, mayor or sheriff. The black turnout is usually way up. After the first black gets elected to a particular office enthusiasm isn't as great for the second black person running for the same office. There wasn't going to be the same enthusiasm for Kamala, even if she had Obama's skill set.

 

Pollsters putting out their final polls earlier than usual in some cases

 

As election day nears the pollsters lie less and less about how weak Kamala is. Could have told you this would happen a year ago or 4 years ago or 8 years ago. Same BS will happen in 2028 and 2032 and Too Hot Dems will lap up the lies like it's their mother's milk.

 

Yep, of the 5 most recent national polls on RCP, 4 of them show Trump actually winning the popular by +2 or more and the 1 Harris poll has her +1. You can still get 3 to 1 odds on Trump winning the popular vote on Polymarket. Not a gamble I will take without a little more data, but I probably should. Both Emerson and Fox News have traditionally erred significantly in favor of Trump's opponent, while Atlas and TIPP are two of the most accurate polling firms from 2020. I really should put a little money down on that 3-to-1 bet. Harris's campaign is imploding.

 

These are the most recent polls in order of the dates sampled (from 538) with the most recent listed first. The most recent 4 out of 5 do not show Trump ahead. RCP lists polls in order of release not based on the dates of sampling. There is a difference.

 

Interesting observation. I'm inundated with fundraising emails and text messages soliciting contributions from various organizations supporting Democratic candidates. They frequently cite the same polls that @okeechobee does in his posts their rationale being that Kamala Harris and other Democratic candidates need more cash because they're falling behind.

 

Tarek Mansour founded the American betting market Kalshi where the median Trump bet is $58 and the median Kamala bet is $85

 

As I've said a few times:

 

In 2 and 1/2 weeks Rich Barris will be telling us that the election was stolen and that all of his analysis was correct in order to save face

 

Trafalgar (one of the best polls). Trump is a strong closer. It should get even worse for Kamala.

 

Senator Oz can vouch for the accuracy of Trafalgar.

 

Thanks this means Harris is in great shape

 

So can Senator Masters and Governor Lake from Arizona!

 

Election deniers ransacked the U.S. Capitol building. What do polls or opinions about polls have to do with that?

 

If you think Harris iss in great shape now you might want to put a little money on it in a few days when her odds should be even more attractive

 

Pittsburg Steeler poll today did not go well for Trump. I know several season ticket holders and they said it was an avalanche of boos.

Also said crowd broke out into a USA chant for Navy Seals introduced that maga is pedaling as being for Trump. lol. Desperate.

 

I looked at why Trafalgar is an outlier. They oversampled the cohort Trump just happens to be strongest with. Almost 38 percent of their sample was age 50-64. Weird how their sampling decisions alway seem to favor him and never hurt him. They were pretty accurate with race and gender though, guess the obvious misses lately that got called out on Twitter made them look for a quieter path.
I would also add that this is the exact same number they had for PA last month (Trump +3). So no real swing there in either direction. I would also say again he could win by that number in the end, who knows. But I do know that right now they’re having to manipulate their way to it.