Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Romney never led in 2012. People think.Romney led after he won the first debate but that was "response bias."

I'm not sure who was heading Rasmussen in 2012. Might be the same guy heading it today. If it is he's learned quite a bit.

 

Romney never led in 2012? Really?

 

Yes REALLY

Romney was never leading EVER in 2012. Response bias made it look like he was leading but he never was. Per Richard Baris.

Response bias made it look like voters moved away from Trump by quite a bit after Kamala replaced Biden. As the response bias decreased. As I told you it would, the polls tightened up.

Response bias happens when something good or bad happens to a candidate and 1 party's voters are more likely to respond to pollsters and the other party's voters are depressed and are less likely to want to participate in a poll. Example: Bill Clinton was up by 26-30 points after the DNC in 1992. My recollection is he won by 5. Do you really think Clinton was EVER up by 25+ points? IOW, if the election had been held when Clinton was up 25-30 points do you think he would have won by that margin? No way,.

It was Rasmussen that was kicked off of 538 for being too accurate. ABC owns 638 and they tried to get Rasmussen to explain how he was so accurate while the ABC_WaPo sucked. Rasmussen wouldn't give up their proprietary info so 538 dropped them

 

This race is axtually following the 2012 pattern to now. Dem with a lead, Republican comes back and takes the lead in mid October, tight race til it opened up at the end.

2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling

 

Considering that almost all of the polls were within the statistical margin of error neither Obama nor Romney were leading in the polls. Going down the list of polls throughout the entire campaign and although Obama was leading in a couple of more polls than Romney (and yes he was actually ahead beyond the MOE in a few polls) the race was a statistical dead heat for almost the entire campaign,.
2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling
Remember this?
Romney Will Win Decisively
or this?
Election forecasting model still points to Romney win
And then there was this:
Why Romney will win-Politico
And let's not forget this:
Dick Morris: Romney will win in a 'landslide'

 

All it says is post new polls here. Also, hilariously, the reason this thread even exists is because you were spamming the board with any poll that showed trump winning.

 

Sure...

 

Romney was NEVER leading in any meaningful since of the word. Margin of Error MEANS NOTHING if your polling methodology isn't good or your polling at a time when your poll will be subject to response bias error.

My recollection is that Rich Baris said he never had Romney closer than about 4% of Obama and that's close to where it ended up on election day.

Imagine YOU called up 3000 people and asked them who they were voting for, Harris or Trump. What do you think y9ur 95% confidence Margin of Error would be? It would be a meaningless number because you have no idea how to conduct a poll.

Edit: If you were polling high school students to see who they were going to vote for homecoming queen you could get a good result. In the olden days maybe 50% of people answering landlines would respond to a pollster like Gallup, Harris or Roper. Today a very low number if people will take the call, or they'll refuse to answer the long list of questions designed to see how LIKELY they are to vote or who they're LEANING towards. They might respond to a text full of several questions by saying, "Just put me down for Trump." One political party might be more likely to respond than another. People lie and say they voted in the last election when they didn't. A large number of people don't know if they live in the suburbs or not. People of Swedish descent might oppose war more than the Norweigians. You have to oversample small demographic groups and then weight them appropriately. If you sample too small a number of a small group you can get huge errors in your final poll. How much of your poll can be online? How do you avoid huge error online if you know certain groups will respond to those polls and others will not. And so on

In 2020 Rich Baris had Trump up in Ohio "by 8-10 points." Many had Biden ahead. A few had Trump up by 1 or 2, possibly 3. Trump won by 8.3%. As Baris has said for years, "I know how to poll Ohio." What dou you think your precious Margin of Error was in the other polls that had Bidrn winning or Trump holding on by a slim margin? If you don't know how to poll a state MoE means nothing.

Baris has said that Wisconsin is notoriously hard to poll. Another notorious state is New Hampshire, because the voters will lie to pollsters about who they're voting for just for the fun of it.

 

It’s a message board. Where people discuss topics. If you just want to see the latest polls without the commentary, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ shows you more polling data than you will find here on their home page alone.

 

Like I said, REALLY.

Rich Baris tweet from 2019:

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s
strong year-to-date return translates to a 72% probability that the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, will win the presidential election in November.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...tock-markets-bet-to-win-the-election-4e0a1b76

 

People will attempt to steal the election. Especially when they've been brainwashed into thinking Trump is Adolph Hirler and election fraud is the only way to "save our democracy."

The Deep State wants Harris to win. Hundreds of billions if not Trillions of dollars are at stake, along with the neocon globalist agenda.

Deep State cyber expertshackers that rig elections all over the world have been moved into DHS to oversee this election and the voting machines (I presume) per Mike Benz. @mikebenzcyber on X (formerly Twitter)

 

Atlas had another PA poll today, same three point trump advantage as last time. But they have him getting 33 percent of the AA vote. The NYT poll had it at 14, and a recent Howard poll across the battlegrounds had it at 8. To give them the benefit of the doubt, the MOE on 111 AA respondents is really high. It’s also possible they only found a few AA respondents and had to model a larger value, in which case one or two responses could throw it off. But even crazier, their last PA poll had it at 54-46 for Harris with AAs.
That one just defies logic. And amazing how their polling oddities always seem to favor the republicans. Weird.

 

That Atlas poll is being laughed at as we speak.

 

They also have Trump plus 3 in Michigan, with the AA split 52-48 Harris.

 

^^ there you have it folks. AtlasIntel, who was the single most accurate pollster in 2020 and who had Joe Biden winning by +4.7 points nationally in 2020 on Election Day always seems to favor the Republicans.

 

AtlasIntel had the best performance across all pollsters of the 2020 US Presidential Election with an average error of 2.01p.p. Our final national-level poll showing Biden with a 4.7 p.p. advantage is likely to be the single most precise estimate of the US popular vote. AtlasIntel also conducted the most precise polls across all pollsters for the states of Michigan and North Carolina. In all states polled by AtlasIntel, results fell within the margin of error of our estimates.

AtlasIntel is confirmed as the most accurate pollster of the 2020 Presidential Election | AtlasIntel

 

It is quite rich that the same crowd who complains about election deniers are in total denial about the current state of polling.

 

Atlas completely botched 2022 as well as their country's most recently election

 

I'm not sure if the 2012 thing is considered hopium or copium, but it's dumb. Barack Obama maintained a 50% approval rating before Election Day that year. Biden is right around 40%. It's not even close to the same election, regardless of what Rasmussen showed in their polling at the time. Kamala's approvals were in the 30's for a majority of her time as VP. She's not Barack Obama.