Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Rich Baris on the Kamala collapse in the polls

 

Ah yes the man that testified on behalf of Kari Lake, the man that says one thing when the poll literally says something else, the man that is also a part of the recent flood of Republican leaning polls, The man that missed 2022 so badly they should be embarrassed

 

Yeah, but it tells him what he wants to hear so that makes it right and when Trump loses they can claim election fraud because his echo chamber told him Trump was winning.

 

Rich Baris, the most accurate pollster 2014-2024 per Robert Barnes. If you think Baris was off on his polling percentages in 2022, provide the data.

Like I've told you all most of the polls are biased towards Dems (to depress Repub fundraising) and then they will show the race tightening as election day nears (to maintain their credibility). If the polls are too accurate 538 might actually drop their poll. This actuall6 happened to one pollster, per Baris (was it Rasmussen?).

I

 

Interesting thread on Montana. There’s some language here. But if Montana is closer than expected come election night, this could be why.

 

So in my continued fun reading cross tabs, the Siena PA poll had Trump with an enthusiasm advantage for the first time there. It was even in the other states they polled. One poll, but something to watch. If that swings towards him late, the polls could be undercounting his support again. The flip side is the early voting,which everywhere but AZ and maybe NV has looked good for Dems.

 

FYI: The most recent NY Times/Siena poll has Harris ahead in PA by 4 percentage point margin.

 

Yep, but just saying if he has an enthusiasm gap, he may overperform again in Election Day.

 

You lost me at Barnes

 

I'm not even sure about the enthusiasm gap. One indicator of enthusiasm is the number of small donors. While I couldn't find statewide data, using Philadelphia as a proxy for state Harris has more than doubled the number of small donors that had contributed to Biden before he had withdrawn. I assume that same ratio applies statewide.
More than half of Harris donors had not given to Biden's 2024 campaign

 

It’s just one poll so it’s not an end all, but something worth watching.

 

Curious what insights you folks might have on what's happening below? You would think her being from California alone would at least maintain status quo, but it clearly isn't.

 

Pennsylvania betting odds. Wow:

 

What we know about the mystery trader betting big on a Trump win

Someone with deep pockets is influencing the betting market

 

Are Republican pollsters “flooding the zone?”

Nate silver wrote a partially free blog post about what I’ve been saying, Republican pollsters are trying to skew the perception. He called it “flooding the zone” instead of “spamming polls”. Unfortunately, he cut the free blog post off before his conclusion, but noted that the Republican polls in the averages are skewing the results by about 0.5% nationally.

 

The bouncy quinnipiac strikes again. They have Trump up 7 in GA and Harris up 2 in NC. The odds of those two states being 9 points apart is basically zero.

 

Between these two polls, they net out at +2.5 points Trump. A poll that has historically overstated Dem support.

 

"They net out at +2.5 points Trump." Uh what? That's not how polling works.

 

Better odds today. Double down.