Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Unlike other things like sports drafts where people have inside info, there is no way to determine who is going to win the election via a betting capacity and most of these are just right wingers dumping extra money into their guy. All it takes is one huge bet by someone like Elon Musk and the odds swiftly shift. I like where most of these polls show Harris and again, way more young voters with no voting history to go off of will be voting for Harris as compared to Trump in this election and Covid killed off a ton of Boomer Trump supporters. You look at things like that, and disregard what the media says because they want it to be a close race for ratings purposes, and you will feel a lot better. I also probably have way too much faith in the American people who I can’t possibly see why they would want four more years of Grandpa Simpson at the helm.

 

I'll bet you any amount you want to name that he will not come anywhere close to winning the popular vote.

 

On this day

 

I think you are underappreciating the power of prediction markets. You say there is no way to determine who is going to win the election, but you also you say that the polls show Harris will win. If you had to bet, you would clearly bet on Harris. It may be that polymarket is biased by large right wing bets (although Americans are technically barred from making bets), but the majority of markets have small maximum bets to limit the impact of individual bettors. PredictIt run by a Kiwi university, has a max bet of $850 dollars and has Trump ahead. Metaculus, run by two American academics, doesn’t even use money, but prestige, as their currency. That market has Harris ahead, but by a razor thin margin.

Prediction markets are very powerful aggregators of dispersed information, and I wouldn’t dismiss them so easily. While I think polls do also carry information, that information is included in within market predictions.

 

As always as we get closer and closer to the election the fake polls start to lose their big bias for the Democrat candidate. If they're too far off in their final poll they'd lose credibility

 

How soon until the deplorables cry and claim that the election was stolen?

 

Odds markets are moving towards Trump but it’s still close. Currently it would equate to Harris being roughly an +2.5 pt underdog in cfb on a neutral field.

 

14 point gap now on Polymarket.....

 

Overall betting markets with an 11 point edge for Trump this morning.




RCP aggregate of national polls edge to Harris down to 1.4 points. On this date in 2020, Biden was a 9.4 point favorite in the RCP aggregate of polls.

 

Harris getting comfortable margins while Trump is looking like a dementia patient so resident bots are posting right wing betting odds. LOL

 

The betting odds will probably continue to hover in this zone for now. My guess is we won't see much more movement unless we get a couple of mainstream polls (other than Rasmussen) that give Trump a +1 or better reading nationally. We've had the NBC News national poll showing it tied in the national. We're probably going to get a few polls showing Trump ahead in the national as polling becomes more frequent and then you'll see betting odds move hard Trump. Better place your bets now if you haven't already.

 

You’d think some on this board would jump all Harrs with those odds. Easy money

 

Yep. Scared money don't make money. @Trickster throw it down big fella!!

 

I did. She's in a good spot right now based on the early data that has come in

 

I'm not betting on it. I could see it going either way.

 

We know Okee hasn't bet anything despite all the spamming he's doing

 

I like it. Trust ur gut. Which one did u bet thru?

 

I was curious what the betting markets looked like in 2020. Trump had similar odds to what he has now the day of the election in 2020. And that was predictit - not the clearly manipulated polymarket.

 

It isn't showing the link correctly

medium.com/@joearvis7/how-to-use-polymarket-in-the-united-states-8a891dde1a91

 

Yeah, Polymarket has turned into a joke - there is no way the market is 58% to 42% in his favor at all, that is a clear pump and dump into Trump by some ultra rich MAGA right wingers.