Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Up until the debate the media hid JD Vance's positives and Tim Walz's negatives. The debate changed the public's perception of both men.

Gay men, young girls and women of all ages were mesmerized by JD"s blue eyes. During the debate and in every interview he always comes out on top. He positively reinforces the Trump brand and is seen as a strong and highly competent VP choice. He enhances the Trump brand: strength.

Tim Walz was built up by the media but it was inevitable that he would be viewed less favorably as election day approached. Walz is increasingly seen as bumbling and incompetent. He isn't doing much to capture independents/swing voters.

Latest Rasmussen poll:

JD Vance
50% favorable
33% very favorable
42% unfavorable
32% very unfavorable

Tim Walz
42% favorable
44% unfavorable

Veeps: Vance More Popular Than Walz

 

Focus groups have shown that when Democrat ads show Trump speaking the ads help Trump

Meanwhile Mark Halperin thinks the Kamala campaign is in trouble

Halperin says Joe Biden did not plan to endorse Harris but he came under tremendous pressure to do so.

As Robert Barnes predicted. Biden wants Kamala to lose

 

Almost as bogus as the current Pub poll avalanche, this guy uses a covid 2020 election as his comparison point for early voting... derp. Cons are so desperate. Sad but somewhat humorous as well.

 

Yea. So far so good. More PA info although I don’t think this says much

 

Of course. Democrats always do. But all Republicans have to do is make a small dent. A very small dent. If I hear ot in my kitchen, its not the only place. My girls arent ever voting for Trump, but he got them talking.

 

I still say your daughters were being nice to their father. I have two sons one is in the navy and he says he is voting for Harris because his cpo told him too. The other one is waffling. I doubt he will vote.

 

More fascinating stuff, ora. If this is a concerted effort (and I don’t know that it is), my guess would be that it’s not intended to act as evidence of future fraud. Not only is this evidence dubious, it’s fairly transparent. Instead, my guess is that it would be geared at motivating Republican voters by making all races seem competitive. Maybe even demoralizing Democratic voters, if they could make the outcome seem like a foregone conclusion. But what do I know.

 

Again, pointing out that you are now cherry picking cross tabs when you stated a few weeks ago that the aggregate of polls is the thing to look at. You folks are starting to drift into QAnon territory with the conspiracy theories. Tell you what, since you think it's a MAGA conspiracy, I'll give you Pennsylvania. Your problem now is Trump is ahead in the aggregate in Michigan. Is Quinnipiac part of the vast right-wing conspiracy too? +4 Trump in Michigan.

 

There is obviously another vast right-wing conspiracy taking place here with the polling, just like the last two presidential elections. NY Times with Trump +5 in Arizona today. The bias is so obvious!! And even though RCP is in bed with the GOP, they can't even get their conspiracy straight, because the last two elections, they gave Clinton and Biden higher polling numbers than they actually achieved at the voting booth. But that's the right-wing, MAGA, GOP for you. Always skewing the polls and trying to make it look like more GOP voters will show up than Dem voters. Their power is relentless and we must stop them now. They have been able to compromise the NY Times. Next thing you know, MSNBC are going to be running Trump campaign infomercials detailing things like Kamala's SCOTUS brief in 2008 about how the 2nd Amendment only applies to a collective militia and individuals shouldn't have gun ownership rights! Oh snap, they might even run an exposé on her relationship with Willie Brown!!

 

It’s some form of a concerted effort. By whom is the question. But for instance, Robert Cahaly, the founder of Trafalgar (a right leaning pollster who got 2022 very wrong and had trump winning the popular vote in 2020), is also affiliated with insider advantage, another right leaning polling group. He is a former Republican elected official.

TIPP, the group that did the PA poll I referenced, has this on their website.

“tippinsights articles will tell a story – often rooted in data. These statistics generated by comprehensive, statistically sound surveys convey what the average American thinks. We aim to provide objective information and thoughts. We stand for principles and policies – free-market capitalism, limited government, low taxes, and a strong national security agenda – and not by political parties.”
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Rassmussen literally tried to verify the 2020 fraud claims. It got so bad 538 dropped them.

Fabrizio was Trump’s 2016 pollster and is the current pollster for his MAGA PAC.

And 2 of the last 3 PA polls come from someone above for example. Just hard to believe it’s all a coincidence that they all sprouted up organically to push the same message.

 

It should also be noted that this all happened in early October, which is when more traditional polling groups tend to switch to likely voter screens, which often causes a Republican shift in polling (the massive blowout polls for 2022 hit in early October). Seems like they are trying to push that effect.

 

Not sure what you mean. I dont talk about politics with my kids. My oldest just walked in as I was sitting at the kitchen bar and asked if it was true that "x" number of illegals cross our border every day and that it makes her nervous.
I asked her and her best friend where she heard that and she said it was on her social feeds.my 18 year old came in and said, "yeah its all over the place".

My kids dont have to sugar coat their feelings..and trust me, they do not lol.

I have the 3 most outspoken kids around and they dont share all of their fathers opinions.

 

I'm not sure I understand. Many believe that Trump won the first time because many Dems believed Clinton was going to win easily and stayed home.

For me at least, thinking the race is competitive or my candidate was down in the polls would only make me more likely to vote. But I've not missed a presidential vote since I could vote so I may not be a good indicator.

 

This is possible too, enviro, but I would guess the strongest impact would be a negative one on voters of the party that seems out of the running. I think it makes more sense than using polling data as evidence of fraud when we are in the middle of crisis in polling accuracy.

 

To me, I think the main reason they may be fudging the polls in his favor would be to try and add "credibility" to his inevitable "it was rigged ... all the polls had me winning" whine if he loses.

 

my concerns are that there is something more sinister at play here.

Remember with Trump ever accusation is a confession. I wouldn’t be surprised if his plan is to cheat. Release a bunch of bullshit polls to make it look like it’s close/he’s ahead. Make sure he’s the winner that gets called on election night and then use to courts to stay in power after the plot is unraveled.

 

Harris pulled a +4 in Pennsylvania today in a top rated poll... Looking good.

 

I must be in the twilight zone. Are libs really complaining about polling as a voter suppressant after what we witnessed in 2016 and 2020?

LMAO, believe that takes the cake.

 

Can mods take the trash out of the poll thread?