Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Why does MAGA even care about polls if they are just going to claim voter fraud unless Trump wins?

 

Been asking that for months. Polls matter but the last election was stolen. Make it make sense. They won't answer, they'll just hit you with a come on man or whatever. They can't even stand behind their own bullshit.

 

In it's most recent poll Trafalgar has Trump up by a 2% margin in Pennsylvania, the exact same margin in which they had Oz over Fetterman in their last poll prior to the 2022 Senatorial election in PA. Fetterman won by a 4.9% margin.
John Fetterman wins Pa. Senate race, defeating celebrity TV doctor Mehmet Oz and flipping a key state for Democrats

 

2% is also the margin they predicted Trump would win Penn. by in 2020. Pubs up 2% by Trafalgar = Democrat win ... LOL.

 

Morning Consult weekly track comes in this am w/Harris up 5, 51%-46%, a stable race. Some recent natl polls, Harris-Trump:
52-45 (+7) Echelon
52-46 (+6) ABC
50-44 (+6) Reuters/Ipsos
49-44 (+5) NBC
52-48 (+4) CBS
50-46 (+4) Yahoo
49-46 (+3) Econ/YG

 

New Pennsylvania poll by AARP

Harris 50%
Trump 47%

AARP Poll: Harris Has Narrow Lead Over Trump in Pennsylvania

 

Washington Post Poll:

Trump edges Harris in North Carolina poll, state that hasn't voted Democratic since 2008 (msn.com)

Trump 50%
Harris 48%

Trump's slim lead is within the poll's +/- 3.5% margin of error, but the former president won the state in 2020 with a similarly tight 1.3% lead. The poll contacted 1,001 registered voters randomly selected from a statewide database.

North Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since former President Obama's 2008 victory.

 

From the Newsweek article on the same poll:

The survey was conducted between September 17 and 24.

Insofar as polls go, this poll is already old news.

It was also commissioned by AARP with a highly partisan democrat firm and a firm that claims lack of bias towards either party.

Good try AARP. Showing your liberal colors again which is why I will never do business with you.

 

FiveThirtyEight, an expert on measuring and rating pollster performance, has evaluated 72 polls by Morning Consult, indicating they are accurate 73% of the time or Mostly Factual. They also conclude that their polling favors the left with a score of +3.1, which equates to a Left bias in polling.

 

Rough day of polling for Kalama...

 

Emerson College has it tied in Pennsylvania. I badly want Pennsylvania in Trump's column come November 5.

 

In a 50/50 election polling isnt going to tell you much. It can really only tell you if a candidate has a comfortable lead or not. Cant give any insight into close elections.

 

RCP betting odds average as of this morning: Trump 49.3, Harris 49.4

 

Note the Emerson poll in the 2022 Senatorial election in PA and although you didn't mention it also Trafalgar.

 

That's image represents something that gets talked about on the nerd boards ... the (R) polls try to flood the board with bias polling to make election look close and winnable... InsiderAdvantage is another one that on par with Trafalgar & Rassmussen...

 

Here is the net bias on all the pollsters according to Silver, for anyone that actually cares. And yes, so,e are definitely biased the other way.

Which polls are biased toward Harris or Trump?

 

And this is the number I keep alluding to, it was similar in the fox polls the other day. Don’t look at the horse race numbers, they are razor thin and unless there is a momentum shift (Oct surprise) which of course could still happen, they will likely stay that way. The way this number moves late in the cycle will likely decide the election.

There is more than enough out there for a late collapse or surge by someone, and the person who represents change from the status quo will win that battle, late deciders tend to break towards the change candidate, With no true incumbent in this race, it’s exactly why you see Harris continually talking about Trump wanting to go back, and Trump trying to pin current economic problems on her. With so few undecideds, this is the pool they are targeting, along with turning out in their base.
So watch the “willing to flip” and “represents change” numbers in these polls, they will likely decide the election. If these were the numbers the week before the election, both candidates, but especially Trump, would be really really nervous, it’s not nearly as set in stone as the top numbers suggest.

 

The issue with this is he's including data from the 2022 mid-terms as part of his thesis. Everybody talks about the 2022 mid-terms, but if you go back to 2018, the mid-terms polling was pretty accurate then also and that didn't do shit for the 2020 polling. He's using polling performance involving tons of other politicians not named Donald Trump to project Donald Trump's performance.

For whatever reason, many polling outfits have difficulty polling correctly for Trump. But I do find it strange certain ones have been able to almost nail his performance, while others are 8+ points off. Probably several reasons for this, but until proven otherwise, it's ridiculous to assume all of the sudden they have Trump polling figured out after failing miserably at it in 2020 and 2016. You can't really use 2022 as an indicator though, because 2018 mid-term polling was equally as prescient.

 

It's meaningless. The snap polls after the Kamala-Trump debate were better than 2-to-1 in favor of Harris, yet polling wise, she's lost ground. RCP average of battleground states had Harris +0.3 on September 10th. It's Trump +0.1 today.

 

All polls are already a few days to a week out of date when they are published. So they all should be taken with a grain of salt. And any poll showing any candidate with a slight margin within the MOE means the race is a toss-up according to the poll.

But the cross-tabs often tell the story. Who are the undecideds? Who are the weak leans but still could be convinced to change his/her vote? There's a reason why Nate Silver said about a week ago that Harris has a better hand to play. Doesn't mean she will win, but she likely has the better chance to win the undecideds, who know what Trump represents at this point, and Harris is the "change" candidate. Plus, there are about 2X more in the soft lean Trump category in most polls than there are in the soft lean Harris category. Meaning, there is likely a larger number of people who could still be convinced to change their vote to Harris as there are to Trump.