Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Rassmussen was in the bottom half in 2022… that’s how it goes, when your polls are Republican bias, your polls look brilliant when pubs outperform. The rest of the time, they are average or bad.

FWIW, only 8 of the 33 pollsters 538 analyzed in 2022 were Democrat bias. That sound good for Trumps lagging polling… Atlasintel isn’t on the list so they might not have been a major player back then. They are highly rated now, on 538, though.

The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 | FiveThirtyEight

 

Rasmussen swing state polling plus a few more states:

Election 2024: Trump +3 in N.C, Harris +3 in Virginia, Tied in Michigan - Rasmussen Reports®

Election 2024: Trump +1 in Nevada; Harris +3 in Minnesota, +6 in New Mexico - Rasmussen Reports®

Election 2024: Trump +2 in Arizona, Tied With Harris in Wisconsin - Rasmussen Reports®

Election 2024: Trump +3 in Georgia, Tied With Harris in Pennsylvania - Rasmussen Reports®

Arizona: Trump 49% Harris 47%
Nevada: Trump 49% Harris 48%
North Carolina: Trump 50% Harris 47%
Georgia: Trump 50% Harris 47%
Michigan: Harris 48% Trump 48% TIED
Pennsylvania: Trump 48% Harris 48% TIED
Wisconsin: Trump 49% Harris 49% TIED

Two other states of interest due to being within the margin of error:

Minnesota: Harris 49% Trump 46% (Tim Walz Home State)
*Virginia: Harris 49% Trump 46%

*The University of Mary Washington poll in Virginia that has Harris 47% Trump 46% isn't farfetched. See post #1143.

With Rasmussen having Trump within the margin of error, I think we'll see Trump in Virginia hopefully coordinating with Governor Youngkin. That would be a welcome 2-way street as Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is running for governor to replace Youngkin. Virginia only allows governors to serve one term.

 

Apples and oranges, but good enough. Rasmussen was 18th out of 33 polls of the most accurate as graded by 538 in the 2022 midterms.

Just curious, where was ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN, and the other lamestream media polling ranked. Oh, I see, they weren't ranked by 538.

That must have galled 538 to have to put Rasmussen on the list of the most accurate pollsters. There is no love lost between 538 and Rasmussen.

You don't have a comment on #1 on the list for the 2020 presidential election? AtlasIntel has most definitely been around. Not curious enough to search why they aren't on the 2022 midterm list, but you can do that since you introduced the 2022 midterms.

 

Actually, they were. ABC commissioned Ipsos. Fox uses Shaw & Co. CBS uses Yougov.

 

You'll have to show ABC News is attached to Ipsos which is rated 12 and CBS News is attached to Yougov. No evidence needed for Fox News/Shaw & Co. as they are not on the list.

The reason you'll have to show me ABC News and CBS News deserves to be on the list is Ipsos and You.gov likely have standalone polls not commissioned by the lamestream media. Two examples:

1. The New York Time/Sienna College poll and the Sienna College poll are both on this list of 38.

2. The Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar Media Group is different from Emerson College and Emerson College/The Hill even though The Hill is owned by Nexstar Media Group.

Commissioning a poll seems to get different results. Prove away.

 

Yes, AtlasIntel is quite good and I've suspected for a while now Trump leads in all the rust belts, just based on the significant polling misses in both Wisconsin and Michigan in '16 and '20.

For example, Biden led Wisconsin going into Election Day by 6.7% in the average of polls, a full 6 points higher than his actual performance. So now they have Kamala +0.8% in Wisconsin. Anyone who actually thinks she leads there right now deserves to be disappointed and laughed at.

 

Wait, your claim is that commissioning a poll means an organization uses different methods? And yes, Beacon Research/Shaw Research is on the list, which is the two companies that are commissioned to poll for Fox.

 

Still wondering why the election was stolen people are posting polls. Still haven't gotten an answer.

 

Yep, they are MAI, Made as Instructed. These polls commissioned by others are also known as suppression polls. You lefties like to post a lot of the MAI polls here. They aren't accurate and most knowledgeable people realize they are cheap imitations of the original more accurate polls.

Please pull the polls that show ABC, CBS, and Fox are involved with the polling that got the pollsters on the list of the most accurate. BTW, you did not mention Beacon Research until this post, but my point remains. Prove what you say. ABC, CBS, and Fox names are not on the list.

 

"Made as instructed." Basically, they showed you things that you didn't like so you dismissed them. Then, they turned out to be more accurate than the polls that you are touting. Fact is that they listed not the media outlets that sponsor polls but the company that does the polling when assessing accuracy of polling. Sorry that confused you, but that isn't their problem or our problem.

 

Lazy and untrue answer.

 

Of course, they were talking about all the other polls done as a collaboration between Beacon Research (a Democratic Polling firm) and Shaw (a Republican one), not the ones from Fox News. Whatever you need to tell yourself.

 

Former (R) Senator Jeff Flake from Arizona just endorsed Harris. As he puts it, voting for Harris is putting country over party.

Flake is LDS, and Arizona has a large LDS population in Phoenix metro area. They generally aren't fans of Trump, his infidelity, and criminal convictions. But they also vote R 99.9% of the time regardless. But someone like Flake saying it's OK not to vote R this time could be meaningful.

It's the undecided and those leaning Trump, but open to switching are the ones going to decide Arizona. Flake's endorsement could be worth enough to tip the scales.

 

Annnnnd just like that, the state polls favor El Presidente. RCP flips PA to Trump. 281 EV's on the no toss ups:

 

You know a campaign is in trouble when their attack line of the day is Trump saying the words “you’ll be okay” at a rally.

 

The right a few weeks aga: Nate Silver, Nate Silver, Nate Silver Nate Silver

The right now: Nate Silver Sucks


Most Likely Kamala Harris Scenario Is 7 Swing State Sweep—Nate Silver Model - Newsweek

The most likely scenario in polling analyst Nate Silver's presidential model is that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, wins all seven swing states in November's election.

 

When you can show me ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, and NBC News are on that list of 33 who did it right in the 2020 presidential election, I'll quit thinking you are FOS.

 

Take out Bloomberg which has Harris at +5 as being a likely suppression poll and this would start to approach the truth in Pennsylvania with an average of Trump +1 and increasing.

 

Lol! I already did. They put the companies down. That is why they had polls conducted by two companies that just so happen to perfectly match the companies commissioned by Fox News. They don't produce other polls. So that is them. Again, sorry that your points fell flat.