The University of Mary Washington Poll is likely more accurate at Harris 47% and Trump 46%. They are local and have no axe to grind. The Emerson College/The Hill/WAVY-TV 10/WVBT FOX43 poll was conducted on Sept. 22-24 among 860 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. My problem with this poll in Virginia is some questionable inconsistencies: 1. Oversampled democrats by 2.4% 2. The actual polling difference is 7.5%. 3. The few remaining undecideds according to the poll are leaning to Trump at 68.2% to 36.8% yet since their last poll in July with Biden 43% and Trump 45% there has been close to a 10-point swing to Harris. Sorry, not buying it. 4. Biden is -11% under water in disapproval so somehow Harris is greatly approved. Not likely, LOL! 5. Did just a little research to see who is behind this poll. Normally, you see the poll listed as Emerson College/The Hill. This poll is listed as Emerson College/The Hill, WAVY/WRIC/WFRX/WDCW. One would think the poll was funded in part by the local Virginia TV stations, at least that is what they want you to think. This poll was funded by Nexstar Media Group, the largest television station owner in the United States so deep pockets. Funny that not one poll was done in over 2 months in Virginia, but this poll was rushed out today as polls everywhere are swinging in favor of Trump. I'd say Nexstar Media Group got what they paid for. A list of the major investors in Nexstar Media Group: Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Common Stock (NXST) Institutional Holdings | Nasdaq Now you know who is behind this made as instructed poll. Nexstar Media Group also owns News Nation which was started as a conservative Fox News substitute but has evolved into a typical progressive news network. Dan Abrams and Ashleigh Banfield Talk NewsNation Bias and Lineup (hollywoodreporter.com) Abrams and Banfield plus Chris Cuomo, give me a break. I tried to watch as NewsMax was dropped from YouTube TV and quickly learned to stay away from their crapola altogether. To sum up, I will continue to believe the little ole University of Mary Washington did it right and Emerson College/The Hill/all the alphabet TV stations owned by Nexstar Media Group likely missed it too much in Harris' favor. Oh, by the way to top this off, The Hill is also owned by you guessed it right, the Nexstar Media Group. It's amazing how many people will be sucked into this farce of a MAI poll, made as instructed.
Polls seem to correct for problems with the last election. I am hopeful and think things are breaking the democrats way. The republicans war on women and freedom seems to be getting every woman motivated and the trump/vance crazy talk is hard to ignore.
Sampling for the Mary Washington poll covered the period from September 3 through September 9th. The debate took place on September 10th. Note the polls in which sampling ended after September 10th.
The last election, for all intents and purposes of this thread, was in November 2020. Polling congressional districts versus polling entire states and the entire country are vastly different and probably easier in many ways. Also, the variable of 2016 and 2020 was the name "Donald Trump" on the ballot. There are many reasons speculated about as to why Trump tends to significantly outperform head-to-head polls against the Dem nominee, but whatever the reason(s) are, the 2022 election didn't have his name on the ballot and thus you can't assume they've corrected those problems based on performance in 2022. I mean, you can assume that if you like, but understand the reality that 2022 proves very little in the way of polling accuracy for Donald Trump.
Betting odds are collapsing on Kamala. On Monday, RCP had Kamala with a +8 advantage in the average of betting sites. It's down to Kamala +3 today. She's one bad poll in PA away from being the underdog again.
Yeah, because the debate has helped Kamrade Kamala everywhere else, not. Harris was up by 4 in Pennsylvania too, not. You didn't even read and consider what I posted before your inadequate response. Your list on the Emerson release today doesn't even agree with the actual poll release above which has at 7.5% in the poll, but rounded up to 8.0% Maybe Mary Washington will give us another reliable poll soon. Rasmussen is supposed to be conducting state polls so hope Virginia is on the list. If I'm Trump, I'd be thinking about coordinating some time in Virginia with Youngkin. Virginia may be closer than most believe.
I'm looking forward a new poll from Mary Washington poll since it's considered a credible source. As far as Rasmussen is concerned its polling is pretty much a joke. Using an analogy Rasmussen is to polling what Fox News is to news. They're both highly partisan sources masquerading as being objective.
Wowzer! This Gallup Poll is devastating to the democratic socialist communist party: 2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP (gallup.com) Contrary to the devastation on the dems side, the republicans lead in every category of polling. It's not hard to see where this election is going on November 5 and why polls are shifting in Trump's direction: WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office. Party Identification and Leaning: More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter (July to September) to minimize poll-to-poll variation in party identification estimates and to provide more reliable comparisons across presidential years given the different timings of the two major party conventions in July, August or September. Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020. In years when the advantage was narrower -- 2004 and 2016, for example -- Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote.
Poster found an old data poll to hang his hat on, now going to die on that hill? LOL Polls ending Sept. 24, 2024 President: general election, Virginia, 2024 AVG. Sept. 22-24 860 LV Emerson College The Hill, Nexstar Harris 53% 46% Trump Harris +7 U.S. Senate, Virginia, 2024, General election AVG. Sept. 22-24 860 LV Emerson College The Hill, Nexstar Kaine 51% 41% Cao Kaine +10 Sept. 18, 2024 President: general election, Virginia, 2024 AVG. Sept. 9-18 899 LV Morning Consult Harris 51% 44% Trump Harris +6 Sept. 17, 2024 President: general election, Virginia, 2024 AVG. Aug. 19-Sept. 17 400 LV ActiVote Harris 55% 45% Trump Harris +10
So are you predicting another "Red Wave"? Im having total deja vu. No Red Wave | Swamp Gas Forums (gatorcountry.com)
The undeniable expansion of Trump's lead in the sun belt states post-debate is nothing short of hilarious given the media's coverage of the debate and everyone's reaction here. In PA, the fallout from the debate is non-existent in either direction, but for all the criticism of Trump's debate performance, for him to expand his lead in 3 states that were considered as potential Harris wins is remarkable.
wow, I was just going to mention that. I’ll dig up an article I read on that. Supposedly polls did a better job in 2022. That said trump is closing the post debate gap.
