Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

There is no question Bucks county is huge. That is a pretty large swing. The big shift is also indicative of voter enthusiasm. If Bucks county goes Trump, she ain't winning PA. Both Clinton and Biden won Bucks county, albeit by slim margins. Biden won Bucks county by 17,345 votes... a few hundred less than the net migration to the GOP's registration advantage from from 2020 to 2024.

 

Betting odds seem to be tightening...

 

Gallup shocker: GOP owns nine of 10 issues, election is Trump’s ‘to lose’ - Washington Examiner

 

To illustrate how god awful some of the state polling was on this same date (Sep 25) in 2020, RCP had Biden with a +3.3% lead in Ohio. Trump won the state by 8.2%. Receipts are indeed an interesting concept...

 

I personally think you would have to be certifiably insane to bet actual money on Kamala Harris winning the presidency at this point. Given the number of reputable polls showing she is behind. The fact that Trump is polling way better right now in the blue wall states than he was in late September 2016 and 2020. The fact she has never won a national election or primary, while Trump has done both and also swept every primary this cycle. The fact that she is part of the incumbent ticket and said incumbent has significantly low approval ratings. The fact that polls have vastly underestimated Trump's final result each of the previous elections. Those are just off the top of my head.

I mean, I could understand betting $200 to make $1,000 off of her winning. But those aren't the current odds. The risk-reward, based on the underlying fundamentals, just isn't there for a Kamala bet.

 

You should put some rubles on it comrade!

 

I'm just here for the Okee spam

 

So Republicans would be running away with the election if their candidate was anyone other than Trump. Thanks for confirming how

Do you realize that you're falling into the same trap which you accuse others of falling into in 2016 and 2020 right? Thinking there's no way your candidate can lose instead of thinking about the ways in which your candidate could lose.

I've come to terms that Trump has a legitimate shot of winning despite what transpired on Jan 6th and other things like blatantly and knowingly taking classified documents.

He has a rock solid base of rabid supporters and single issue voters. Outside of that, there's a massive part of the country that will vote against him no matter what.

The question for this election is if enough of those people will turn out to overcome his base of support. That's still very much an open question and far from a certainty either way.

 

It’s interesting that you can’t fathom putting money on what is the betting favorite. Clearly people are of very divergent views on this. It’s brings to mind a favorite quote from Michel de Montaigne:

Now if for our part we received anything without alteration, if the human grip was capable and firm enough to grasp the truth by our own means; these means being common to all men, this truth would be bandied from hand to hand, from one man to another; and at least there would be one thing in the world, out of all there are, that would be believed by all men with universal consent. But this fact, that no proposition can be seen which is not debated and controverted among us, or which may not be, well shows that our natural judgment does not grasp very clearly what it grasps. For my judgment cannot make my companion's judgment accept it; which is a sign that I have grasped it by some other means than by a natural power that is in me and in all men.​

 

I'll give you an example of smart money VS dumb money.

Brexit was not supposed to happen. On election night you could still get 10:1 odds if you bet against the prevailing wisdom. At the time Robert Barnes said working class voters will decide this and they're 80-20% for Brexit. Barnes made a bundle.

Barnes has made money every election cycle since he was a young man except 2022. Maybe Democrat micro targeting of ads and get out the vote efforts plus a little fraud (which they are also better at than Repubs will pay off in 2024. I"m betting against it.

 

It's an opinion piece from the Arizona Republic (Phoenix) newspaper, but it's making a lot of same points I have been making. Don't call Arizona for Trump just yet, especially with still a significant number of undecideds left in the state, Gallego leading by larger than the MOE over Lake, and oh yeah, abortion access is on the ballot in the state.

 

Because it's a popularity contest, you have a lot of people betting money on emotion. To an extent, many are looking at polls, but I think there are a large amount of people betting on emotion. And the ones that are looking at polls don't fully understand the biases that can be involved. Whereas gambling in sports has been around forever, betting on the outcome of the election hasn't been as accessible as it is now. With sports, most of the gamblers are factoring in several layers of data and information and there are no biases to contend with. Again, look no further than 2016 and 2020 to see evidence of this. Odds were far worse for Trump in 2016 and he pulled off 300+ EVs.

 

Trending to Trump continues in Pennsylvania:

(2) SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) / X

This poll had Harris +4% at the end of July, 47-43. Now it's tied at 46. Any lead Kamrade Kamala enjoyed in Pennsylvania has evaporated even though she has spent considerable time there. Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.

 

Scouting around for Virginia, remarkably there is little recent polling. Here is a poll that has Virginia within the margin of error:

UMW Center for Leadership and Media Studies Survey Zooms in on Presidential Election in Virginia - News

I wonder how Virginia is being polled by the two campaigns. Those results would be interesting. I also wonder what Youngkin would recommend on Trump spending some time in Virginia.

Harris has the support of 47 percent of 756 Virginia likely voters, as compared to 46 percent favoring Trump in the survey, which includes 1,000 adult respondents and was conducted for UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies by Research America Inc. Sept. 3-9. Several third party and independent candidates received a total of four percent support in the poll, while the remaining likely voters said they were undecided.

In a question that asked likely voters only about the major party nominees, the results also remained well within the margin of error: 48 percent favored Harris and 46 preferred Trump.

Among all survey respondents, the two major party nominees were tied at 44 percent each. Roughly five percent said they were undecided, with the remainder saying they support a third-party or independent candidate or were not planning to vote.

“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”

 

We all know that @ETGator1 and @okeechobee have pretyoed a post stating that the Democrats cheated should Trump lose

 

Which makes their assertive predictions even more mindless.

 

This poster brings in a survey from Univ. of Mary Washington from before the Harris-Trump debacle? Yeah that's going to about as valid as we've come to expect. LOL