Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Nobody said a word about voter fraud. This is about election interference and disenfranchisement of republican voters. If these fall under voter fraud, then it's voter fraud.

 

And again, either during or after the election, how many Arizona residents claimed, with proof, that they were disenfranchised and were unable to cast a vote? The answer, as far as I can tell, again, is zero.

That's because while some were inconvenienced in Pinal County to wait for new ballots to be printed, they were delivered. And all Arizona voters can vote in any polling place in their county, not just in their precinct. And while the counting machines at each polling place creates an instant count, later to be uploaded into a central area, provisional ballots aren't placed into the machine, but a separate lockbox. Drop any ballot into this box, and as long as it is valid, it will be counted. Later rather than sooner, but counted nonetheless.

 

I guess there was voter fraud. Here's a prime example.
Trump supporter admits to voter fraud after casting dead mother’s ballot in 2020

 

According to democrats, none.

Why do you think so many people were angry? If you are going to say whining again just move on. To see those angry people and those long lines for things that should not have happened on election day 2022 goes far beyond whining. To me, it goes beyond election incompetence into corruption. End. Moving on as like with Israel we will never agree.

 

Angry does not equal disenfranchised. None were denied their right to vote. We're they inconvenienced? Yes, and that's unfortunate. But they still all voted, and all were counted. And the errors were either human caused, like in Pinal County, or software issues, where the machines in Maricopa weren't updated. But no sign of malice or fraud anywhere.

 

The way that the righties cling on to one poll and act like THAT poll is only one that matters is just adorable. Can you find the poll they like?

 

There must be some Maga dictionary that lists angry= disenfranchisement=corruption because in reality those are not equivalencies. Apparently only cultists speak Maga? JDVance will be asking if Maga and Hatia are proximate.

 

Reuters/Ipsos national comes in at +6 Harris today. Polls are all over the place. One thing I will note: if the CNN or Quinnipiac poll manifests, Trump wins easily. Even with a +6 Kalama outlier, you have to factor in the EC and then how much is that poll skewed? But if the CNN or Quinnipiac scenarios play out, it's a definite Trump win. You just can't count on the rosiest polls for Dems coming to fruition. Sad news for Kalama. Even sadder news for Kalama's followers.

 

Weird comment. Did a middle aged white dude steal your boyfriend or something?

 

Couple of comments. First, margin of error. The Q poll MOE is 3.2%, and the RI 4.1%. Meaning both polls can be accurate if Harris is leading around 2%.

Second, both polls have undecideds. The Q poll 4%, and RI about 16%. Just a guess, but the Q poll asked the undecideds about a lean, and counted them. The RI only counted sure voters. With Harris polling similar in both polls, but Trump with a large difference suggests support for Harris is strong, but Trump leans can still be persuaded.

Last, the Q poll saw 68% wanting another debate. Not good for Trump. If he doesn't debate, it will likely hurt him with undecideds. If they do debate, Harris could wax the floor again and sway the majority of undecideds. Potential tough spot for Trump.

 

A certain alien has been drinking the Kari Lake Kool-Aid. You don't sell pillows by any chance, do you?

 

Maybe he's the alcoholic former Mayor of NYC.
Jury awards $148 million in damages to Georgia election workers over Rudy Giuliani’s 2020 vote lies

 

No way he'd make it into, much less graduate from, law school.

 

This is the trend that's been going on in the swing states since 2020. This is what the smartest bettors are looking at. For those of you who think of the prediction markets as the smart money, you should no the dumb money in the markets is how we get paid. And there is a lot of dumb money.

One county:

 

I wish I could take advantage but I lost all my money betting on Ben Carson to be Trump's pick for Vice President.

 

Everyone thinks they are the smart money and that everyone else is the dumb money.

 

Carson was a great pick when he was 50:1 and it looked like a done deal. I sold him at a profit. Rebought Carson at 16:1 and JD Vance at 6:1. Posted those 2 picks at Too Hot on the day of the Trump-Biden debate.

At one point Carson was a close to a "done deal" at 50:1 per Robert Barnes. When Carson was 9:1, I asked Barnes, "What are the true odds Carson will be VP?" Barnes said, "50% . At least 40%."

 

Back in 2020 when several pollsters had Biden winning Ohio or Trump barely ahead. Rich Baris said Trump was really ahead by 8-10%. Betting Trump to win by over 3% paid even money. Trump won by 8.3%.

Betting Bernie Moreno to beat Sherrod Brown pays even money. If Trump wins big in Ohio Moreno wins easily. This is the safest bet for 2024 per Robert Barnes. What Barnes thinks actually moves some prediction markets.

 

You should just start a Robert Barnes and Rich Baris thread where you can post all of their thoughts because quite honestly none of us care.

 

Little did I know when I started posting here a few months ago that Barnes and Baris would unite the populist left and populist right by convincing Trump to bring RFK Jr on board the Trump train. Little did I know that Barnes would get Trump to pick JD Vance for VP. Barnes was the first to say Jack Smith was illegally appointed and Trump would be given broad immunity as far as I can tell. Barnes is one of the lawyers for plaintiffs or defendants for many cases discussed here. His political predictions move markets. He says Baris has been the most accurate pollster over the last decade. He has 40 pro Bono cases going like the Amos Miller case. He allows other lawyers to cut and paste his legal arguments. He chooses cases that have national significance. JD Vance watches his podcasts. Barnes has volunteered to vet every Trump judicial pick for free during his second term. Barnes will play a key role in vetting corrupt DOJ/Deep State actors for Trump. Why would I not refer to Barnes and Baris? I'm all about citing the best sources.