Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

I think they need to correct Nebraska

 

All involved in Maricopa should have been fired, no excuses.

All involved in Pima should have been fired. no excuses.

Both are likely ticking timebombs ready for the 2024 national election.

Newspaper articles:

Maricopa County certified the 2022 election amid controversy and complaints (azmirror.com)

Maricopa County certified the 2022 election amid controversy and complaints (tucsonsentinel.com)

Arizona’s Maricopa County Certifies Results After Contentious Election (youtube.com)

You really are clueless. This in April 2022 before the 2022 midterms:

AZ AG Releases Report Finding 'Fraud' and Problems with Handling of Over 100K Mail-in Ballots in Maricopa County (westernjournal.com)

Clearly, there is a problem in Maricopa County that has yet to be addressed. It won't be under democratic leadership either.

 

Although there is a separate thread on the subject maybe this is also indicator of the probability of a Trump victory in November.

 

Many of us have been focused on who is winning these predictions, but a more important result here might be how close they all are. The EC will almost certainly fall one way or the other, but I don’t think either side should feel confident right now.

 

First off, the Maricopa Board of Supervisors, which runs the county elections, is made up of 5 people. 4 of them are Republicans.

Second, your links all contain the same whining and unsubstantiated complaints, but not a single shred of evidence anyone was disenfranchised, or voting wasn't free and fair. Whining that you lost an election that you believe with all your heart was rigged, but with no evidence whatsoever is nothing more than wishful thinking. Continuing to drag this through the mud over and over and over and over again is the epitome of whining.

 

To go along the New York Slimes/Sienna College Sunbelt State Poll released on Monday, Emerson College had released this on September 19th:

September 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump and Harris Locked in Tight Presidential Race - Emerson Polling (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Arizona
Trump 49
Harris 48

Georgia
Trump 50
Harris 47

Michigan
Harris 49
Trump 47

Nevada - Tied
Trump 48
Harris 48

North Carolina
Harris 49
Trump 48

Pennsylvania
Trump 48
Harris 47

That's Advantage Trump 3-2-1. Think Nevada will join Arizona in going Trump in the upcoming non-lamestream polls. It looks like the numbers are skewing back to where they were before Biden was taken out in the democratic socialist communist party coup. Bumbling Kamrade Kamala can't do anything to try to help herself without hurting her prospects to win. I guess it's STFU and hope doing nothing works with the feeble minded in the American electorate.

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill surveys of likely voters in seven critical swing states find former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck in the 2024 presidential election. In Georgia, 50% support Trump, 47% Harris. In Arizona and Wisconsin, 49% support Trump, 48% support Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump, 47% Harris. In Nevada, the candidates are tied with 48% support each. In North Carolina, 49% support Harris, 48% Trump. In Michigan, 49% support Harris, 47% support Trump.

“There has been marginal movement in the presidential election since the late August Emerson swing state polls before the presidential debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump lost a point, and Harris gained a point. Trump’s support stayed the same in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris’ support decreased by a point in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, and stayed the same in Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump gained two points and Harris lost two.”

The sample size for Arizona is n=868 likely voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Georgia is n=975 with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. The sample size for Michigan is n=875 with a credibility interval of +/-3.2%. The sample size for Nevada is n=895 with a credibility interval of +/3.2%. The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=880 with a credibility interval of +/-3.2%. The sample size for each North Carolina and Wisconsin is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%.

 

None of what you say is true. It's election interference and disenfranchisement of republican voters. Again, the only reason you don't object is that it happened to republicans and not democrats. I guess all of those people who showed up just did it to whine. It's a lot more than zero people as you claim.

 

Trump should get at least 312 in the EC. 319-219 is possible.

Historically Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all vote Dem or all vote Repub. Trump is up 3× in all 3. If you bet on a Trump sweep you can get 10-1 odds

 

Best I can tell at the moment, it all rides on PA. That’s assuming there is no polling bias against Trump, which whether intentionally or unintentionally, has definitely been a factor in his previous elections.

 

Kooks like Trump will shut out Kamala in Nevada and Arizona, in the sunbelt (GA, NC) and in the rustbelt (Wisc, Mich, Penn)

Trump up by 78-15 among no college whites. Harris margin among blacks and Hispanics is shrinking.

Will Shapiro help Kamala in Penn when he sees himself running in 2028? Will Whitmer help Kamala in Michigan if a Kamala win pushes her presidential run back to 2032 when she'll be 61 years old and her physical appearance is decaying?

Democrats erred in picking Kamala as an identity politics candidate. They should have focused on policy. That's how it looks to pollster Rich Baris and political bettor Robert Barnes. Masterclass:

LIVE #WhatAreTheOdds at 2PM EDT — As always, polls, projections and predictions.

 

Currently, four out of five Maricopa BOS seats are held by Republicans. This is true, and easily verified. What isn't verifiable are any of the claims of fraud from any Arizona held election in 2020 or 2022. If you have any real proof, please bring it forward! Otherwise, all you are doing is adding to the whining from the sore loser Republicans.

 

CNN just dropped a national poll showing Harris +1. That is an easy Trump win if it manifests.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/polls-trump-harris-presidential-election/index.html

 

Nate Silver today ... she's looking pretty solid in the blue wall states, that's all she needs to win. Az, Nev, Georgia, & NC are just gravy, and too close to call. Florida would make it a legit land slide.

Last update: 11:45 a.m., Tuesday, September 24. A reasonably good day of polling for Kamala Harris after yesterday’s roller-coaster. She now leads by 2.4 points in our average of Michigan, 2.2 in Wisconsin, and 1.6 points in Pennsylvania.

 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Trump won all three, but those odds also suggest that this isn’t near a foregone conclusion.

 

One thing about most of the major polls in the swing states is neither candidate has 50%. Take Arizona, for example. Silver has it Trump +1.3%, but with only 48.2%. This leaves 4.9% of the vote still undecided. Four years ago, only 1.5% voted third party, with Biden winning with 49.5% and Trump 49%.

There are still a bunch of undecided out there that will determine the outcome of the election. And one indication in the swing states is not just who is currently winning, but how close they are to 50% minus the undecideds. In PA, for example, Harris is 49% with only 3.6% undecided. So Harris is a in a better position to win PA than Trump is AZ according to these numbers. Especially when you consider in 2020, only 1.2% of PA voted third party.

Of course, MOI means all these swing states are all still in play. And one thing polls don't always get right is the enthusiasm metric. Which candidate is going to bring out more of their voters versus their opponent.

 

Same old claims with zero evidence to support. It was laughed at with the felon's claims in 2020 and similarly laughed at with these cult members claims now. Desperately wishing the Pubs will win is not actually evidence of voter fraud. LOL

 

A recent Harvard Poll found the under 30 crowd supports Harris at a nearly 2:1 ratio. In past elections, this may not have mattered that much because the under 30 crowd was not a reliable voting demographic. In 2016, only about 40% of registered voters under 30 voted. In 2020, that increased to closer to 50%.

To put this in context, in Arizona, there are about 1 million people aged 18-29. In 2020, about 50% of them who were registered voted. If that number increases by just 5%, that could equate to Harris +10,000 votes or more.

The Harvard Poll also looked at enthusiasm, and among the younger Ds, 75% said they were going to vote versus only 60% of the younger Rs. Of course, what young people say and what they actually do doesn't always align.

 

Ooof.. Quinnipiac national poll dropped this afternoon with the race tied... Harris 48%, Trump 48%. From a poll that has historically overestimated Dem advantage, this is not a good sign for communists at home and abroad. Trump wins 312 EV easily if this plays out. Quinnipiac missed on 2020 polling by an average of 7.3 points and in 100% of their polls the error favored Biden and Dems. Yikes.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09242024_urah86.pdf

 

It's actually Trump 48% and Harris 47% so Trump +1%. From your link:

FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE: CAN’T GET MUCH CLOSER, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; the presidential race remains too close to call as former President Donald Trump receives 48 percent support among likely voters, Vice President Kamala Harris receives 47 percent support.

This link from same source is the same, Trump with a 1% lead nationally:

9/24/24 - 2024 Presidential Race: Can't Get Much Closer, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 64% Want To See The Two Candidates Debate Again | Quinnipiac University Poll

With 41 days until Election Day, the presidential race remains too close to call as former President Donald Trump receives 48 percent support among likely voters, Vice President Kamala Harris receives 47 percent support.

All of the lefty loons here laughed about Rasmussen having Trump at +2% nationally. The new polls coming out support Rasmussen's national poll findings.