Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Harris pulls off a POSITIVE favorability rating in the polling averages… it’s been long time since we’ve seen a president/Canidate viewed so favorably. Harris has moved from a -17 to a +0.3. Meanwhile, Trump has fallen to a -10 from the -8 he was at pre debate. Huge, IMO, real enthusiasm for a candidate will show up at the polling.

Kamala Harris : Favorability Polls

Donald Trump : Favorability Polls

 

Kamala Harris surging with three key groups, polls show

 

Kamala Harris' Favorability Surges 16 Points As Trump's Attacks Fail

 

The election cannot get here soon enough for Baris & Barnes so they can start claiming voter fraud.

 

I actually feel fairly confident as well. Dems have been outperforming polls over the last few elections. If stuff like Taylor Swift and Roe gets 5% of an increase in younger voters that's a game changer. I also think there's a large contingent of female voters that are staying tight lipped about voting for Harris. I know one personally. I just don't see how Trump is picking up any more support at this point.

 

What happens if the polls are understating the Dem support for Harris?

 

Landslide win for Harris

 

Or "Super Voter Fraud".

 

I see what you are saying, Okee. I do think that you are making a similar argument to mine when you say that pollsters are “guessing”. The same is true of making a correction in favor of Trump. It’s a guess.

Either way, if you are confident that you have an insight that no one else has, the market is yours. Bet on Trump, and take the money.

 

I'm far from the only one making these observations or offering this insight. But you know that. You're just taking another swipe because you're mad.

 

The ones making those observations have probably never heard of Mark Robinson

 

Why would a female be tight lipped about voting for Harris?

 

More context. A Harris voting wife who doesn't want to tell her Trump supporting husband who she is voting for.

 

I’m sorry okie. If this sounded like another swipe, I worded my post poorly. And I also did so in whatever came across as the first swipe.

What I meant was that, even though many feel like you do, the balance of community of people that are putting their own money on the line don’t line up with your analysis. So you are seeing something that community isn’t. Vegas is hard to beat, as they say, but certainly you could be right. Of course, many Gator fans thought the football team shouldn’t be favored by 6 this weekend, and the betting community seems to have underestimated the Gators there.

 

Can someone please remind me what the purpose of Vegas odds are? Are they to predict outcomes or are they to balance betting so gambling houses make money?

 

As I replied to you before, that the purpose of a market is to balance betting in no way precludes it from having utility in prediction. In fact, betting odds out-predict the prediction algorithms in college football (see attachment). And as I mentioned before, a betting market out-predicted a survey of psychologists regarding which psychology results would fail to replicate. How we view the “purpose” of betting markets is irrelevant. They simply have a better track record than the instruments explicitly intended to make predictions.

 

Trump Leads in the Sunbelt Swing States:

Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Polls in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

In Full Ballot Polling:

Arizona
Trump 48%
Harris 43%

Georgia:
Trump 47%
Harris 44%

North Carolina:
Trump 47%
Harris 45%

I'm hoping Trump can pull Kari Lake across the finish line with him in Arizona. Right now, that is not happening.

 

NYT is credible polling but I find the highlighted cross tabs not believable.

 

Yeah ... They have to balance the bets between Democrats who casually think Harris would make a good president, and Republicans, who think Trump was chosen by God to rule the universe and the only way he can lose is if communists tamper with voting machines.