Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Holy cow, that’s pretty bad. At least if the numbers implied by my internal polling of my own opinion are correct.

 

Harris is only +2 in Virginia?

UMW Center for Leadership and Media Studies Survey Zooms in on Presidential Election in Virginia

 

Probably because they’re choosing not to include Rasmussen. They have definitely performed better than many of the polls you see every day.

 

Although that poll was released today, it's based on sampling entirely prior to the debate. I would also add the Mary Washington University poll also included RFK, Jr. I'm not even sure if he is still on the ballot in Virginia. These polls in which the respondents were sampled partially or entirely (the Morning Consult poll) following the debate are probably much more accurate.


I would add that one of the ways that 538 is a more accurate site than RCP is that order in which the respective websites display the results of polls. 538 displays the results of polls based on the order of sampling with the most recently sampled polls listed first. RCP displays polls in the order that they were released which occasionally results in older polls that were more recently released being listed ahead of the most recently sampled polls.

 

Saying Rasmussen performed better than many polls is like saying the gators are performing better than many teams

 

They did outperform Samford.

 

Senate race is looking very interesting.

Ted Cruz losing to Colin Allred for first time: Texas poll

The survey, conducted by Morning Consult between September 9 and 18, showed Allred one point ahead of Cruz, on 45 percent to his 44 percent among 2,716 likely voters. His lead was within the poll's margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.

Cruz, the incumbent Texas Senator, has had a consistent but narrowing lead over his Democratic challenger in previous polls.

"For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don't know about y'all but I'm fired up and ready to WIN! We've got 47 days, let's do this Texas," Allred said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

 

And now that chance is down to 48.6%.

 

LOL ... Trump went from +19.7 over Harris to - 2.5% under Harris ... in 4 DAYS ...

That's a tanking campaign.

 

That's crazy talk. Don't trust polls and don't underestimate the power of the conservative vote. Old white people get out to vote.

 

This is meaningless until you do boat parades.

 

Ya beat me to it.

 

Not enough money to buy Silver for any more time?

 

And although it's the exception in some elections young first time voters also get out to vote, see 2008 as the prime example and those voters tend to be overlooked by polls that use voting history as their "likely voter" screen.

 

Reminds me of the poster from Kentucky who told us back in 2019 that he would be attending Matt Bevin's victory party.

 

I’m not holding my breath but I’d love to see Cruz lose.

 

All I'm saying is that if Trumph doesn't win, there will be a thread. I've got receipts.

 

Can we just make it so they can vote from their cell phones? That'll increase the youngster turnout and create an innovative method of election theft for the progs.

 

I was thinking that this sounded like a an overly sensitive model, but the predicted popular vote shares are almost unchanged. Probably this is just a result of really close swing states flipping in the model. And I guess if the swing states were that close, maybe the model is a bit too sensitive, as likely Trump shouldn’t have gotten up to 60% chance in the first place.