Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

I’ve been saying it from the beginning as soon as she made Walz her running mate. In a typical election year, the VP doesn’t move the needle much, but when you have one as charismatic and well liked as Walz and one as robotic and evil as Vance, and with it being a non-traditional year with Harris entering the race late, that makes a HUGE difference. The fact that she’s also eons more qualified and people are starting to have Trump exhaustion and I would be absolutely stunned if Trump won this thing. Stunned.

 

still quite a bit of time. Probably a few more unknown events that could impact it.

 

There will be an October surprise.

 

Second poll out of Michigan post-debate: tied 48 to 48. Hmmmmmmm....

https://mirs-uploads.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/4606-MIRS Field Copy 136 PM 9-12-24.pdf
2024 Michigan: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

 

Poll questions from the Michigan Mitchell Research poll released today:

How important was this debate in determining for whom you are going to vote for President?
Very Important 18%
Somewhat Important 18%
Not Very Important 22%
Not At All Important 41%
Not Sure 1%

Did this debate actually make you switch from one candidate to another?
Definitely Switch from Trump to Harris 3%
Probably Switch from Trump to Harris 0%
Did Not Make the Switch 90%
Probably Switch from Harris to Trump 1%
Definitely Switch from Harris to Trump 4%
Not Sure 2%

Who do you think can best solve your most important issue?
Harris 47%
Trump 50%
Not Sure 3%

 

Nate Silver...

Last update: 1:45 p.m., Friday, September 13. We’ve gotten a few more post-debate polls since yesterday’s update, but not much has changed in our forecast. Kamala Harris leads by 2.1 points in our national polling average, but Donald Trump has a 61 percent chance to win the Electoral College.

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

 

Another +5 today from the Post Debated Polling adding ... That would do it, for sure.

 

Trafalgar is excellent

 

Good night, sweet Dump. Enjoy prison.

 

538 rates them 279 out of over 300 pollsters. They're rated 0.7 on a scale in which 3.0 is the highest rating.
Pollster Ratings

 

Like it said. Excellent.

 

You forgot "excellent" now means crap.

 

props for use of “it”

 

Just 0.1% in Arizona away from being favored for a clean sweep of all swings states on 538.

 

Harris is now favored 59 to 40 in 538’s projection.

 

TIPP is even better...

Post-debate. Trump +3 in North Carolina

New Battleground Poll – Trump Pulls Ahead, Post Debate › American Greatness

 

Trump should wun North Carolina by 6 imo

 

Most recent polls for NC. Trump is ahead in all three but within the margin of error. If the election were held today Trump would probably win but it's nowhere near a lock. Also note that in every poll at least five percent are undecided and implicitly persuadable.

 

538 bumped Harris up again today to a 20% advantage over Trump.