I would add that the results in the map is attributable almost entirely to a single poll ending August 30 which had Trump winning Pennsylvania by a 2 percentage point margin. That poll had an MOE of 2.9%. The later polls for PA had the election tied.
So RCP has PA as an absolute tie but gives Trump the EC votes? They must have some tiebreaker formula but that alone flips the election. As I said in my earlier post, the EC will be a nail biter, even if one candidate sweeps all 7 or 8 states. The other thing these poll aggregators don’t full capture are trends for either candidate, although eventually that should catch up with itself.
WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 42% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday. The two-day poll showed Harris with a five percentage point lead among registered voters, just above the four-point advantage she had over Trump in an Aug. 21-28 Reuters/Ipsos poll. I believe this is the first poll that covers results after the debacle.
Hopefully Trump continues to talk about transgenders and people eating cats for the remainder of the campaign because you know that's going to work so well for him.
In addition to polls and betting markets here's another metric to measure Trump's chances. This Donald Trump Stock Market Sentiment Indicator Signals He Lost The Presidential Debate
+5 for Harris on a national poll is entering the danger zone for Team Trump. The conventional wisdom is Harris needs to be > +2 nationally to win the electoral college. With a MOR of plus/minus 3, being +5 puts Harris very close from this election being a toss-up to Harris with a comfortable lead. Also reading a lot of responses from still undecided voters from the debate. And the latest poll above still shows 11% either undecided or voting third party. Some will abstain and/or vote third party, but for the undecided, many of them are saying they liked what Harris had to say, but they want to hear more. If there are no more debates, Harris needs to do some town hall style events and interviews. Do well in those, and she'll win at least half of the undecideds, if not more.
I think she does betting polls don’t mean much to me. Truth socials price collapse s end to be a better indicator.
Every indicator is pointing at Harris right now. Her momentum stalled for a minute when the GOP had everyone convinced she’s incapable of speaking extemporaneously in the week or so leading up to the debate. Then she mopped the floor with him and Swift endorsed. I keep waiting for her first big misstep and it hasn’t happened. Not yet anyway.
This would be funny if it wasn’t so sad. It reminds me of the alledged Christian who goes around to college campuses and gets kids to give them wrong answers to easy questions.
Rut row? Michigan Survey: Trump Leads Harris by One Point; Within Margin of Error (See Story Below Chart) – InsiderAdvantage
InsiderAdvantage was mentioned in the above post as one of the “Republican” polls they put so they can feel good about themselves.
