Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

It's difficult to know exactly what caused this decline. It could be a number of things, but the perception is that she has been dodging scrutiny. If that is indeed a leading cause, the problem for her is that she has leaned into this strategy of avoiding interviews at all costs and it is going to be difficult for her to shake that perception now. And someone at Team Kamala would have to admit they were wrong and that it was a bad strategy. Nothing suggests her team has that sort of self-reflection needed to make a pivot. But the bottom line, as I have stated here before, is that Kamala's team doesn't believe in her or else they would have been scheduling all sorts of interviews, town halls, press conferences from the beginning. The clock is running out on her, not Trump.

 

The most likely outcome from Tuesday night is that they each do enough to please their current base of support and not much else. The problem for Kamala going forward will be that her team doesn't believe in her.

 

The latest New York Times & Siena College national poll:

Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

With this type of lead in the national (popular) vote, Trump will end up with 300+ electoral college votes.

Poll conducted with 1,695 registered voters from 9/3 - 9/6:

Head-to-Head

Trump 48%
Harris 46%

Full Ballot:

Trump 46%
Harris 44%

 

Watching "the election was stolen" folks continue to post about poll numbers will never not be hilarious for me

 

Hillary agrees

 

I'm sure she does. It is pretty funny.

 

Even assuming that the numbers and projections are accurate, once again look at how predictive the polls in early September of 2008 were at predicting the final outcome of the election that year.

 

That would be very interesting statistically since in 2020 the popular vote for President Biden was 51.3 % and his landslide was 306 electoral votes.

 

I think we all know Harris will actually win the debate, but Trump will brazenly lie, name call, and talk confidently like he always does, because he doesn’t actually have a plan or any policies, and even if he doesn’t answer any of the questions asked of him with an actual coherent response, the MAGA cult will be like “Trump owned her!” Same old song and dance.

 

Seems likely, but I thought Biden could mange a win, too, just by looking like a sane one. … I’m hoping Harris can flip the script and make Trump look like the incoherent rambling idiot he is. Prosecutors are used to dealing with liars so I’m thinking that part of her life will pay off here, call out his bullshit, then shift into rational and concise thought of her own.

 

Trump was really bad in that debate as well, but he got bailed out by how much of a corpse Biden was. That won’t happen against Harris, but she needs to be ready to fact check him in real time, because he will lie constantly and the moderators won’t call him out on it.

 

i think she needs a convincing win. Her just kind of winning “on points” in a muddled debate won’t do much for her. There is a slow decline in her support in polling.

 

disagree. She just needs to hold serve. I think she’ll crush him but she doesn’t need to.

 

The slight decline in her polling is curious. Are the people they’re polling just massively dense? Trump goes on incoherently ramblings every day and sounds like a complete lunatic and somehow he isn’t getting completely blown out in the polls. Be better, American voters.

 

You greatly overestimate Harris’ abilities without a teleprompter to lean on. There’s a reason why she didn’t win a single Democratic primary delegate in 2020 after multiple debates, forcing her to exit the race before it ever really began.

The more she speaks without it being scripted, the more people tune her out.

 

We’ve all seen Trump go off script without a teleprompter, and it’s definitely something to behold. That was four years ago, she has many years of being VP and more experience now, I fully expect a strong performance on Tuesday.

 

And when you consider Biden and Hillary had 6 opportunities to deliver a KO debate victory against Trump and failed each time, that helps you to see how unrealistic it is to expect that from Kamala. She also has to defend an administration who had a 39% approval rating before Biden dropped out of the race. So she's already playing defense. If she wins the debate on points, she did about as well as anyone could have expected her to given the circumstances.

 

Trump has been in front of more cameras, conducted more unscripted interviews, and held more press conferences since 2015 than Kamala would hold if she won a lifetime appointment to the Presidency.

 

Who gives a shit. Trumpers are the only one who thinks Trump doing softball interviews, giving complete, nonsensical garble as answers, and going on incoherent rants that have nothing to do with the question asked is a good thing.