Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Jul 24, 2024.

  1. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

    35,331
    1,741
    2,258
    Apr 8, 2007
  2. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

    9,257
    1,173
    328
    Sep 11, 2022
    Yes, because they have Kamala Harris with a 0.1% lead in Georgia. It would take one poll there showing Trump +1 and it's 281-257 Trump.

    Granted, RCP was about the best polling aggregator at gauging the 2020 election versus sites like 538, etc. But they still gave Biden a much larger lead (4 to 6 points) in Wisconsin and Michigan than he ended up seeing in the final vote. (not really their fault as they are simply using independent polls to compute their average) They currently have Harris +1.4% in Wisconsin and Harris +1.1% in Michigan. I believe this is why it's being widely reported that the Democrats internal polling numbers are not looking stellar. I'm not sold she's really leading in Wisconsin and Michigan. Of course, this is all wait and see.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

    10,677
    1,337
    1,718
    Apr 8, 2007
    It would also take one poll showing Harris +1 In Pennsylvania and it’s a “landslide”… see we both can do this…
     
  4. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,676
    1,369
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
  5. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,676
    1,369
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
    Oh wow I didn’t realize Silver was working FOR polymarket. Which is owned by Peter Thiel. He’s literally on Thiel’s payroll. He’s officially on ignore now.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  6. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

    31,759
    54,912
    3,753
    Apr 8, 2007
    northern MN
    [​IMG]
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  7. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

    10,677
    1,337
    1,718
    Apr 8, 2007
    Silver just posted that with “convention bounce adjustment mode” off, Harris would be winning with 292 EC votes … actually better than what 538 shows.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  8. HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

    1,710
    507
    2,038
    Mar 7, 2009
    I remember Silver as one of the original godfathers of baseball analytics well before his involvement in politics. Smart dude, but he definitely has dropped off in the quality of his content over the years, which is a shame.
     
  9. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

    4,450
    901
    453
    Sep 22, 2008
    • Like Like x 1
  10. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    11,111
    2,496
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
  11. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,676
    1,369
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
    Harris will win.
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  12. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

    12,892
    1,727
    3,268
    Jan 6, 2009
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  13. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

    12,892
    1,727
    3,268
    Jan 6, 2009
    the 0.1 GA lead includes a Trump +4 poll from a month ago. The last 3 polls were within the last 2 weeks and were all Harris +1.0 or more ( and one tie)
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

    8,605
    1,599
    1,478
    Apr 3, 2007
    A couple nuances here: First, Thiel is an investor in polymarket, but I’m not sure he’s rightly called “owner”. Second, Silver does indeed work as an advisor for polymarket, but he doesn’t make predictions for it. His predictive model is housed at his own website, silver bulletin.

    And one bit of my own commentary: I think prediction markets are infinitely fascinating, and I’d accept a job at polymarket as well. Now if I had some crazed partisan hack making me do unethical things, I’d quit, but I highly doubt polymarket works that way. All betting lines only favor the house for sure if the money is evenly distributed on both sides of the bet. Diverging from this approach is basically guaranteed to bust the market in the long run.
     
  15. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

    8,605
    1,599
    1,478
    Apr 3, 2007
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  16. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

    9,257
    1,173
    328
    Sep 11, 2022
    In terms of where this race stands today, this is a really bad poll for Harris, as she needs to win the popular by 3 or more to secure the EC. Silver is basically saying she is behind and needs a "good night" to take command of the race. Define "good night" for Kamala. Most polls showed people thought Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump, but it didn't matter in the end. Trump would need to implode at the debate for it to move the needle. He's a guy who sees his numbers rise after indictments. Trump would need to have a disastrous, Biden-like performance for it to matter. That's not going to happen.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  17. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

    9,257
    1,173
    328
    Sep 11, 2022
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  18. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

    20,647
    1,693
    1,763
    Apr 8, 2007
    Once again, a reminder from 2008.
    upload_2024-9-8_11-32-51.png
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  19. TheGator

    TheGator Basement Gator Fan Premium Member

    24,094
    19,542
    6,523
    Jun 20, 2008
    Utah
    Kamala’s poll numbers are dropping faster than a turd in a toilet.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Disagree Bacon! Disagree Bacon! x 2
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  20. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

    8,605
    1,599
    1,478
    Apr 3, 2007
    Being that she’s not near as well known, I think Kamala’s in a slightly different boat than Hillary, giving her more upside in a debate. Of course it also gives her more downside. I’ll be interested to see what happens on Tuesday anyway.