I would add that the RCP composite includes a number of polls which were completed before Biden withdrew and Harris became the defacto Democratic nominee.
Again, Harris could win the popular vote by 2 points and she would still lose to Trump. RCP average of polls has Trump ahead by 2 points. So, he’s really ahead by 4 points currently.
Some new state polls today posted on 538… Same polling organization that had Trump +2 over Biden in New Hampshire, now has Harris +7, Trump had a +1 edge in Maine over Biden in recent polling, now it’s Harris +9…. 9 to 10 point swings in some contested states…. Nice!
It’s over for Trump. He has no chance at winning now that Harris is the nominee, and it’s not even that Harris is great necessarily, but that everyone sees Trump for who he is and his VP pick is hugely unpopular with his degrading of women every chance he gets. Not a winning combo. The democrats just needed someone who has an ounce of vitality and energy to take this election and they have that now.
Both Forbes and WSJ polls today finds that Kennedy in the race helps Harris by 2 to 3 points…. I’m thinking that potential job Kennedy was asking for in the Trump whitehouse in exchange for dropping out is looking pretty good to Trump right now…
Expect it to widen as the process goes on. That JD Vance pick for VP is really kicking him in the ass right now. Highly unlikeable individual.
I would say not to expect much with too much confidence. Almost all races have surprises, and this one seems more volatile than most.
Trump still about 12 points ahead of where he was versus Biden on this date in 2020. Amazing that he closed the gap to what turned out to be a very tight election.
