Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

That's the tie breaker ... it's shown at the top of the map as NE2 ... without that it's a 269-269 tie.

FWIW, some of the other models have Az, Nev, and/or NC flipped.

 

No way Trump wins Arizona and Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.

 

Hopefully more.

 

Lock him up

 

No need. I've already spoken with Dominion and Smartmatic. They've installed the President Harris update and we're ready to go. As long as the Kraken and Robert Barnes don't find out we're good

 

I can't wait for the meltdown.

 

Same. The last one was epic.

 

@vegasfox is there a single house that has Kamala as the favorite rn? They’ve all gone Trump.

 

Have to bet $10,000 on Trump to make $8,000 rn.

 

I kinda get the feeling he wins none of those. Homegirl is on the war path.

 

The most accurate pollster (per Robert Barnrd) is aRichard Baris. Nate Solver refuses to debate Baris because he would be slaughtered. :

 

Where's the DNC ",BOUNCE"? Trump and RFK Jr stepped all over it

 

I look at the past. There was a time the kkk was on the rise and was a political factor. Then there was the time that the nazis were on the rise. Henry ford and Charles Lindbergh were supporters of the Nazis. My thought is the stupid who support trump is a tide that has crested. It is unknown how far the tide will ebb by this year.

 

Wow, even Nate Silver has Trump favored.

 

He does, but if you read his free blog, he said it's because he nerfs her in his model for 3 weeks past the convention. His polling shows her winning or tied in every competitive swing state (I don't considered Texas and Florida swing states).

 

Trumps lead in Rasmussen has been falling for 2 weeks now. He's down to +2

 

Polling and data guru Nate Silver warned Thursday that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to be a "slight underdog" in Pennsylvania, which boasts 19 electoral votes and will likely determine the outcome of the presidential election. Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician, wrote on Substack that while Harris is leading by 3.8 points in his national poll tracker and is slated to win the popular vote, his nuanced election forecast model predicts former President Trump is electorally favored to win the White House by a 52.4% chance, versus Harris, who now shows a 47.3% chance of pulling off an electoral victory.

But, he continued, "There’s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model. The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race," Silver explained. "And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November."

At the current date, Silver said his model shows a 17% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, calling it "a big concern for her campaign all along. If she won the popular vote nationally by between 1 and 2 points, for instance, the model estimates that she’d still be a 70/30 underdog in the Electoral College," he wrote.

Nate Silver reveals the one battleground state that could spell trouble for Kamala Harris

 

You realize that his model specifically removes bounce, right?

 

The bounce had already happened. It was the week following Biden's announcement that he was dropping out. All the convention did was sustain it for another week. I think we'll see another bounce after the debate. Trump hasn't had great luck with prosecutors.

 

Yeah, one prosecutor blew up their case and the other had his thrown out by the judge. Most defendants would give their eye tooth for luck like that.