Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

unfortunately for her it’s too close. Harris is new to the race which provided excitement and energized the campaign. Then the DNC. imo she should be doing better. Why is it so close? I’m not really seeing how she pulls ahead. And as we learn about her leadership, her price gauging/price freezes & raising corp taxes is getting her labeled as more progressive. many moderates & RINO-ABTs will be uncomfortable with that. In her upcoming cnn interview she should mention moderate positions. e.g. Restate how she’ll sign the border bill written by a staunch conservative. Or talk about…..US DEBT. moderates/ RINOs actually still care about that.

For Trump, as bad as he is and thedamage he’ll do to our country, our democracy, and deliberately stoke unrest-it’s already baked in. No one left to suddenly learn this about him.

But, the election is still more than acouple months out and Trump can still do something crazy or some majorevent - October surprise.

 

I recall an experiment conducted several years ago in which a chimpanzee throwing darts at a list of stocks outperformed the experts.
Most successful chimpanzee on Wall Street

 

One of the reasons we are not seeing much movement now is that very little polling has been released since the DNC. I haven’t seen any state polls released, just a few national ones that were partly done during the convention.

Silver says they don’t like to poll during the conventions, and It takes about 5 days to get polls completed and released. We should have a better grasp of the convention bounce / RFK effect by Friday, I’d think…

But it is very close. 538 is probably the most optimistic right now, and still give have Trump winning 410 out of 1000 simulations.

 

Cook report has moved NC from trump lean to toss up. Bad news for the very loathsome Republican candidate for Gov.

 

“In the lead-up to Election Day, the performance of the S&P 500 — the benchmark index synonymous with the stock market — has accurately predicted the winner of the U.S. presidential election 83% of the time”

Since 1928, the incumbent party remained in control of the White House in 12 out of the 15 elections when the S&P 500 was positive during the three months leading up to an election. On the flip side, the incumbent party lost the election eight out of the last nine times when market returns fell in the three months before an election.

"When combined, market performance has 'predicted' 20 of the last 24 elections," Adam Turnquist, chief technical analyst at LPL Financial, wrote.”

This Stock Market Stat Has Predicted 83% of Presidential Elections in the Past Century


So far so good for Aug 5th to nov 5th….

 

Rate cut happening is huge.

 

Below is a video by Robert Bsrnes and pollster Rich Baris from yesterday. The RFK Jr effect on the race is discussed at length and the latest polling info is analyzed by Barnes for all 50 states.

Some states of interest and who is leading per Barnes:
C olo KH by 7

New Mex KH by 4

Florida DT by 10

NH. DT by <1

Maine. DT by <1

Iowa DT by 16

Ohio DF by 10

Minn. KH by.2

Penn DT by 5

Mich. DT by 4

Wisc DT by 6

Nevada DT by 5

Arizona. DT by.6

Wyo. DT by 48

Utah. DT by 25

NY KH by 15

NJ KH by 7

CALI KH by 25

Popular vote
Trump 77M
Harris 73M

Electoral College
Trump 319
Harris 219

It should be noted that Rich Baris has access t9 Kamala's internal polling numbers

Barnes and Baris talk about the fraud that is Nate Silver beginning around the 6 minute mark. Baris mentions that Silver will not appear with him.on.TV because "I would destroy him." Barnes said that in all 50 states in 2016 and 2020 Nate Silver predicted the Dem candidate would get a higher percentage of the vote than they got. His bias in favor of the Dems was undefeated, i.e., 100-0.
https://www.youtube.com/live/g-RHJhc3d-Q?si=Yaj1CzKB-e3fgLJl


E

 

Some states of interest and who is leading per WarDamnGator:

Colo KH by 17
New Mex KH by 8
Florida DT by 1
NH. KH by 8
Maine. KH by 8
Iowa DT by 1
Ohio DT by 1
Minn. KH by 12
Penn KH by 5
Mich. KH by 8
Wisc KH by 7
Nevada KH by 5
Arizona. KH by 4
Wyo. DT by 4
Utah. DT by 5
NY KH by 45
NJ KH by 27
CALI KH by 85

Popular vote
Trump 67M
Harris 93M

Electoral College
Trump 219
Harris 319

 

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

If you want more it’s $500 a year or $275 on Black Friday.

But it’s 100% guaranteed to be accurate if you wait until Black Friday.

 

It’s kinda dumb to be a Trumpster who doesn’t trust Nate Silver…. A month ago he was making fun of other models for calling it a “toss up” and screaming that Biden is getting his ass kicked for all to hear. Then he said part of him wished Biden stayed in the race to prove his point. It dispels any myths that Nate Silver plays politics for clicks.

Now he’s calling the race a 50/50 toss up when the other models have it as a Harris lean…

 

Where you sit depends on where you stand.

 

FAU weighs in.

FAU | FAU/Mainstreet USA Poll: Harris Gains Momentum in Wake of DNC

By joshua glanzer | 8/27/2024

A new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, underscoring deep gender and racial divides among voters across the nation. Watch the video analysis of this report at faupolling.com.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former U.S. President Donald Trump nationally, with 47% of voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%. She has gained strong support among women, with 53% backing her, while 45% of men favor her. Trump’s base remains predominantly male, with 47% support from men, compared to 41% from women.

Harris also holds substantial advantages among Black voters (73%), Hispanic voters (51%), and white college-educated voters (57%). Trump, however, continues to command strong support among white voters without a college degree, with 59% favoring him.

“Since her elevation to the top of the ticket, Vice President Harris has effectively appealed to women voters, and the gender gap has become more pronounced,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU. “Harris has also reestablished the Democratic Party’s advantage with minority voters.”

 

Two new polls released today making up that average:

Yahoo News has Harris +1
Economist/YouGov has Harris +2

If those polls are accurate, Trump wins the electoral college. If they are jaded left like they have been the last two times Trump ran, he's comfortably in command. Based on these polls, I'd say Harris is about -4 from where she needs to be to have a shot at winning the electoral college.

 

Is that so?

 

I've heard theories about why there is always a polling skew against Trump. Some suggest it's just harder to get Republicans on the phone when they do these polls and well, that does make some sense. Republicans more likely busy working versus Dems on unemployment and the teat have time to answer randoms calls. But I also wonder if there are a lot of Trump supporters who rig the poll, because they want to get their rocks off when the meltdown occurs on Election Night. Yeah, I'd probably tell a pollster I'm voting for Biden er... Camela too... if I was unfortunate enough to accidentally accept that call.

 

Why have the polls undercounted D votes in the last few elections?

 

Please tell us you imagined this all on your own and not with the assistance of a bonafide adult capable of cogent thought.

 

There are six new polls from representing Aug. 23-28, showing Harris up by anywhere from five to seven points. Looks like the convention bump is now accounted for. No idea what will happen down the stretch but I can't see the debate going well for Trump.

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls