Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Kamala Harris More Than Triples Gap With Hispanic Voters in One Month: Poll (msn.com)

Harris increases the democrats lead with Hispanic voters by 3X since joining the race.

 

Some info on what we’re seeing across the mkts.

“The crypto-based betting platform Polymarket witnessed the biggest swing in favor of Trump, with bettors predicting he now has a 52% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 47%.

This is a big shift from Monday, when bookmakers on the crypto platform pegged both candidates' chances nearly even, with Harris holding a slight lead.

Amid reports of Kennedy’s potential exit, Polymarket bettors now believe Trump and Harris have nearly even odds of winning the swing state of Pennsylvania—a big shift from earlier this week when they gave Harris much better odds than the former president”

Election Betting Markets Swing Towards Trump As RFK Jr. Mulls Dropping Out

 

I would like to see more polling out of New Jersey. This is very interesting to me. There is more than one poll showing Trump ahead or tied with Biden. Obviously, Kamala is probably doing a little better than Biden was but I’m also noting Biden’s horrible approval rating in NJ at -20 points consistently.

New Jersey 2024 election poll tracker

 

You're wrong. Trump was the favorite VS Biden or Harris
Kamala's poll numbers are phony. There has been no big voter shift to Kamala. Democrats got energized when Biden dropped out and they became more likely to answer pollsters questions
Pubs became less likely to answer questions. Pollsters like Nate Cohn (NYT) knew this but didn't disclose what was really happening because they are Dems who want to depress Pub fundraising and turnout while doing the opposite for Dems. So Robert Barnes and Rich Baris called out Nate Cohn and Nate Silver for being the frauds that they are. The 2 Nates and many other pollsters and political consultants watch Barnes and Baris and are now admitting that Harris' numbers could be a historic example of response bias.

Polling numbers are just b 1 metric to look at when deciding who will win. Trump has high approval and favorability ratings compared to Kamala last time I checked and people are registering and identifying as Republicans at high rates i.e. they're moving away from the Dem party. 10-15$ of blacks and Hispanics unders age 50 have shifted from supporting Dems to supporting Trump. Kamala will get far fewer blue collar working class voters than Biden got in 2020, probably only around 22, if that. Identity politics is in steep decline. It's now more about economic classes. Elites VS the little guy. As Barnes and Baris have long predicted. Populism is a word you should get used to hearing.

Another metric: the Amish in Pennsylvanis are registering at to vote at a high rate so they can vote for Trump because farmers like Amos Miller have been under assault by the Shapiro gov't. 2 Amish men were illegally thrown in jail without being charged for example. Trump could pick up potentially 60,pp Amish votes from people who didn't vote in 2020 (I believe).

Look at Biden's arginine over Trump in Penn in 2020. Multiply that number by 2.5. That os how much the number of Republican voters VS Democrat voters has increased since 2020.

Voters want to feel safe and they want the economy to be doing well. If rat's not the case the incumbent party loses every time.

Trump: Peace and Prosperity
Kamabla: War and Poverty
Trump: Secure b border
Kamalorder chaos and massive environmental degradation

 

TL/DR version: Trump was clearly the favorite back when the polls showed he was winning -- now that the polls show he's losing, they are phony.

 

How are the Amish going to vote without a driver's license?

 

It's kind of dead period for polls, Nate Silver said the pollsters wait until the convention ends to start new polls.

In other news, 538 still hasn't figured out who the Democrat nominee is, still says they will release a new model once that person is announced. I think their lead statistician "quiet quit".

 

Interesting. It should be noted that polls have pretty consistently found Harris doing much better with Hispanic Voters than Biden.

 

Nate Silver predicted Harris will get the usual Convention bump of +4% to +5% once polling resumes on Friday. Whether or not this holds is a different story. But it keeps the momentum in Harris' corner until the next big event, which is the next debate. There's also the wildcard of what Trump will do/say if Harris does get a decent convention bounce and Trump sees he's losing.

 

One only has to look at this day in history to easily understand President Trump is way ahead of where he was in 2020 and 2016:

 

The DNC ended Aug 20 four years ago. So polls on Aug 22, 2020 had the Convention Bounce built in. Pollsters aren't going to do polls until tomorrow. A better comparison would be Aug 24, 2024 with Aug 22, 2020.

 

Those certain polls were immediately after their respective DNC bounce which the current polls don't have yet. Do you even try to be honest? You supposedly do all of this research yet are constantly proven wrong because you deceive.

 

Looks like there was a new national poll today that has Harris +6. Moved her 538 polling average to +3.3, the largest margin she's had to date. And a new NC poll that has Harris +1, hanging on to her slim lead there, per 538.

 

I'm not sure if that New Jersey poll is all that meaningful considering that the poll was almost two months old and Trump's opponent was Joe Biden not Kamala Harris. Polls conducted about the same time in Virginia and New Hampshire also had Trump leading Biden. It was also around the time that you were predicting a Trump landslide. More recent polls have him behind in both states.

 

Any indication of timing of polling?

 

Aug 18-22, as its listed in 538.

Latest Polls

 

If she gets a 4+ point convention bounce we are officially cooking with gas.

 

I am honestly shocked that 20 million people are watching these conventions.

 

Judging by this thread a lot of MAGA is hate watching it.

 

A poll must show that Trump is in the lead and is cosigned by Robert Barnes in order to be considered valid. Also, the only valid betting sites are the ones that show Trump winning