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Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Jul 24, 2024.

  1. AndyGator

    AndyGator VIP Member

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    Damn straight :cool:
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2024
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  2. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    You are right, though, I am feeling optimistic. Not that I think the race in the bag, but just happy it is a race again.
     
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  3. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    Official recommended picks for the 2024 election from Robert Barnes.
     
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  4. AndyGator

    AndyGator VIP Member

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    the optimism is refreshing. And what is really nice is seeing younger voters finally get excited and interested. Geriatric presidential candidates is depressing and unmotivating. Even to geriatric voters.
     
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  5. enviroGator

    enviroGator GC Hall of Fame

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  6. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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  7. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    Is there a reason you keep pushing this guy?
     
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  8. GCNumber7

    GCNumber7 VIP Member

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    I’ve been saying for months. People didn’t magically forget what a POS Trump is. And if they did, the DNC has plenty of video, and plenty of money to remind them. Biden was in such poor shape that he was dragging the whole party down.

    Harris just needs to play the ‘handsome guy’s approach to getting laid’. Smile, don’t say anything stupid, and you are home free.
     
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  9. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    If Barnes may be the best political bettor in the US. if not the world.

    Barnes is an excellent sports handicapper

    Barnes may be the top constitutional law thinker in the US

    Barnes is a great thinker in the area of civil rights and tax law

    Barnes is a lawyer for the underdog and I think most of his cases are pro bono. Amos Miller, Covington.kids, Kyle Rittenhouse, Brook Jackson VS Pfizer...Barnes takes on cases 5hat can have national significance. When Josh Shapiro's gov't illegally threw 2 Amish men in prison without charging them with anything Barnes came to their defense

    I think Barnes was the first to say Jack Smith was illegally appointed

    Barnes made the best case that Yrump should receive broad immunity VS the laefare Democrats waged against him

    Barnes has a good legal strategy to counter Democrat lawfare.

    Barnes likely got JD Vance picked for VP. Barnes 6alked with JD for 90 minutes before he went to the senate floor and voted against supporting the Ukrsine war

    Barnes said on J6 that the so called insurrection was likely an inside job

    Barnes warned against Trump. Selecting Wray, Hassel, Pompeo Bolton, Barry. Numerous federal judges and Amy Coney Barrett. Right on all

    Barnes is one of the top leaders of the populist movement sweeping the world

    Barnes and Rich Baris advised Trump to fire his campaign staff. It looks like these grifters might go

    Barnes understands what is going on in every important congressional district in Smerica

    Barnes advised Trumo's lawyers in the 4 legal cases he was involved
    Barnes is a foreign policy expert. On The Duran podcast (#1 foreign policy podcasr in the world) he is introduced as "The Great Robert Barnes."
     
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  10. pkaib01

    pkaib01 GC Hall of Fame

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    The only polls that show a trump advantage were sponsored by Fox News and the Daily Mail.

    Does the polling process bias toward the sponsor? If so, how?

    upload_2024-8-15_9-36-15.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2024
  11. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    Oh so he’s a wildly partisan hack telling you what you want to hear.
     
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  12. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Nate silver and 538 calculate the misses between past polls and actual results, to weigh polls in their averages. I'm not sure if they actually adjust for bias, or just give those polls a lower weight so they don't affect the results as much.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2024
  13. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    Barnes is brilliant and his analysis is usually spot on
    I like to listen to the smartest people, people with integrity.

    As an authoritarian leftist with little respect for our constitution you probably don't get people like me. I don't respect 90% of Republicansl and 99% of Democrat politiciabs.

    I think k you're projecting, BTW. Who do you listen to that isn't a :partisan hack"? thinking.
     
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  14. pkaib01

    pkaib01 GC Hall of Fame

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    Sorry, I was ambiguous. What I meant was does a polling company like J. L. Partners bias the polling process to meet the desired objectives of the sponsor (e.g. Daily Mail)? Even in 2020 I noticed polls sponsored by right wing organizations skewed red (and vice versa) compared to the independent pollsters.

    Trump leads Harris by two points in Daily Mail poll... as voters reveal their biggest hesitation about Kamala | Daily Mail Online
     
  15. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I see, I don't know the answer to that, but I suspect the politically leaning sponsors have their "go to" polling companies that they know are skewing the results ... On both sides. The most favorable Democrat polls are often blue sponsors, too. Which is why I trust the poll aggregators more than single polls.
     
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  16. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    What is the purpose of biased polls? I would think voters would be more motivated to pull the lever for their candidate if they thought it was close or they were losing.
     
  17. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I could see it going both ways... Maybe boosting the base's morale by showing your teaming is winning. In the end, for Fox News and Daily Mail, it's probably about getting clicks from the kind of people their advertisers want.
     
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  18. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Emerson checked in today with Harris +5 in both head to head and a 5-way... same as the Activote poll from yesterday.

    Emerson is a top 10 pollster on 538’s ratings.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2024
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  19. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    The interesting thing is that in 6 of the 10 polls listed on the site which make up this composite average, Trump is probably your winner if those polls come to fruition. Anything that shows Harris with a 2 point lead nationally or lower probably translates to Trump winning the electoral college.
     
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  20. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Didn’t read this, but I’m going to go ahead and rate it as “informative”.
     
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