Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Trump leading in Michigan by slightly more than he's leading in Pemnsylvania. Believe it or not

 

Wisconsin, Michigan now leaning Trump. Pennsylvania should go to Trump as well.

 

Trump by 2 in Wisconsin imo.

 

North Carolina and Georgia dhould be called for Trump. I overestimated Trump"s margin in each state but a win is a win

 

White working class moved to Trump, than Hispanics and blacks started moving to Trump.

Shocker of the night, if my data is correct:

In Michigan, Trump won Hispanics 60% to 35%. Can that be true?

 

I could still be wrong bu5 I told you guys betting for Trump to sweep Mich. Wisc and Penn was a good bet. 70% chance it would happen and it paid 10:1.

To lose any of those states looks like Harris needs a super high percentage of the votes coming out of Philly, Detroit or Milwaukee

 

Finally... the end of the communists!

 

But...what about the Iowa poll!!

 

It was funny how some posters really clung to that poll to say that Harris was winning female Republicans.

 

I actually can't stand Trump. I think he's bad for the country in so many ways.
Whether he's worse than Harris is another subject...

But one thing I've learned is that all of us will believe (almost) anything that will confirm our biases and what we want to hear.
Again- that's everyone. Left right Christian, non-believer, Gator and Seminole.

Iowa has gone big to Trump twice- it's not a swing state.
And the intelligent and well-informed Too Hotters know that full well.
And yet...
But we're all biased and tribal people. Me too.

 

So one of the reason I started posting here a good bit again over the last couple weeks was to red team what I was seeing on conservative Twitter. The R number crunchers called this result last week. I was hesitant to believe them and wanted to know what the other side was saying. It came down to Republican women voting for Harris, Republican wave mirages in ‘22, and ‘20 voting patterns being not as accurate as ‘16.

 

Atlas Intel polling was amazing…. The most I see them miss by in the swing states is 1.3% … had a bunch that were spot on. I think I read they were either the best or second best in 2020, too. Non partisan polling company that has the secret sauce.

 

I commented several times in the poll thread that although the female turnout was touted as +10, it was pretty much +10 in the 2020 election. I think one of the issues with democrats courting women is that most of them already turnout to vote and already vote democrat.

Dems lost to working class white non-college grads who are mad about prices as we've been debating in other threads. That's a large demo. Hispanic flip was pretty big too.

 

That poll seemed to confirm the theory that Republicans women were crossing over to vote for Harris, which is something I have significant doubts about. Most of the Republican women I know if they were not going to vote for Trump, were going to vote third party or write in a candidate.

 

if you mean the last minute iowa one... that was an outlier for sure. Even dems said that. They were hoping it did mean something though, I'll grant you that.

 

https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d

Fascinating article.

The French guy that bet $30 million on Trump winning the electoral college, popular vote, and blue wall states theorized that polls were undercounting Trump voters again due to the “shy Trump voter effect” where they are more likely to either refuse to participate in polls or not tell pollsters they support Trump. To test his theory, before making the bet he commissioned his own poll that, instead of asking who the person planned to vote for, asked them who they thought their neighbor was voting for, which showed much higher Trump support than the public polls did.

 

From page 12, August 12th. This post got 4 "funny" ratings from our lovable lefties. I'd be interested in knowing how many "funny" ratings I received in this thread total. There is some pure comedic gold in this thread.

 

Some interesting news: Trump has republican women so worked up over immigrant criminals and other boogeymen, that they are getting gunned up at a record rate. Apparently, republican women do not feel that their men can protect them from the immigrant hordes. So, republicans, remember not to piss off the missus, as she may pull a gun on you and put a cap in your azz. Republicans--the Party of Fear. Obviously, Heroic Fear, but fear nonetheless.

Gun Ownership Is Rising Among A New Group, Poll Shows