Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Remember, R crossover vote was 9% in 2020. It's expected to be possibly higher this time around as more LDS are actively endorsing Harris.

 

Source for Philadelphia county turnout today: x.com

 

Tilly,
I live in right in Atlanta. Lived in Virginia Highlands for 23 years now in Buckhead. As far as signs, yes I saw the big Kamala billboard in Downtown area but I have seen far fewer Harris signs in 2024 than I saw Biden signs in 2020. I think a lot are keeping secretive on both sides though. I drove through Va Highlands this past weekend and only saw 3 Harris signs which shocked me actually. What part of Atlanta area did you see a bunch of Harris signs?

 

R crossover in Arizona will be less than 9 this year. R's in Arizona got burned by immigration and inflation. In fact, I would not be surprised to see Trump win a higher crossover margin than Harris. NPAs will almost certainly go Trump by at least a point or two. If all that holds, these numbers are disastrous for Harris in AZ. Like really, really bad. Even with a 10% crossover of GOP to Harris, Trump will get crossovers also and these numbers are horrid for Harris. Your only hope is a massive uptick in Dem voters in Maricopa after they have woken up and had their afternoon breakfast.

 

Info on the ground from 10 am this morning in Atlanta. Two Buckhead polling locations
1) Buckhead Library center of Buckhead
and
2)Library on Northside Parkway just south of West Paces Ferry OK Cafe
Both locations around 10 am had absolutely no lines to vote. I had already voted early but drove by on way to work.

 

Yeah, she's done in AZ.

 

These early voting numbers on election day are better than they were four years ago. I live in Maricopa County. We're hours from the border and outside of MAGA, it's not a top concern. Honesty and integrity are more important, especially for the large LDS contingent that lives here.

I also can't see a huge crossover for Ds to Trump. Ds in Arizona are the minority, and have been for a few generations. Very few Ds in Arizona will cross to Trump. Third party protest vote? Maybe.

Last, Prop 139 is on the ballot statewide. It's regarding abortion. Many of the Indies are pro-choice and I can't see them voting for 139 and Trump at the same time. Another set of Indies in Arizona are never-Trumpers who feel they don't have a home anymore in the R party. Again, perhaps a third party protest vote, but they aren't voting Trump.

The Rs outnumbered the Ds in Arizona in 2020, and 2022. Who won the President, both Senate, and Governor races in Arizona again?

 

The source of the data below is the Democratic Party of Arizona. Unless something changes drastically, Arizona will probably be called before midnight. You can see that both Dems and GOP have already turned out 2/3's of their voters coming into today, so there's not going to be a huge shift. Especially at the margins we see coming in from Maricopa so far.

 

Again, how much larger is the R majority today than 2020 or 2022? And again, who won the POTUS vote in 2020, Senate votes in both years, and Governor vote in 2022?

R and D might not be the most important indicator of how someone votes this year. It might be M and F. Age could be important too. Just looking at registration numbers and who voted based on this, and McSally and Blake should be Senators, and Lake the Governor.

 

To my point on NV. Not saying the Dems will win, only that it looks better than it did in 2020 as far as Eday votes, which they desperately need.

 

Based on how much Okee is cope posting we should expect Harris to give her victory speech at some point tonight

 

I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to call Arizona for Trump. D turnout in Maricopa is already falling by the hour. GOP are at more the 2:1 in person voting today in Maricopa. There's a reason President Trump only did two rallies in AZ in the last two weeks. She's losing AZ big. Accept it.

 

GOP are even outvoting NPA's thus far in Maricopa. AZ have a higher number of NPAs than GOP. Disastrous numbers for Kamala Harris in AZ.

 

And again, of course 2024 looks better, because more GOP voted early this year. There has been some vote cannibalization, but apparently not a whole lot. We'll see what happens with those numbers as Democrats wake up and figure out their day.

 

Cook County In Person Voting update:

 

I'm not sure how that is good news from Democrats. The latest update has it at 1.6% but Democrats need to be beating Republicans by about 5%+ in Cook County. Plenty of time left for voting but that number needs to be higher.

 

How did you come up with 5%? Does that factor in a possible early voting lead? I think the positive news here is the Dems are keeping pace in Election Day voting to maintain their early voting advantage, if that is the case…

 

Republicans came into the day with about a 4% to 5% lead in early voting. Clark County is the biggest stronghold for Democrats. They need to run up their totals in that county and outpace Republicans in the rural counties. Since voting started this morning R's have add to their 40k EV lead by about 4k votes. But that does not include mail in votes.



I do not think NV ultimately matters. Both Trump and Harris can lose it and still get to 270.